Adam Nathan (@adampnathan) header
Adam Nathan (@adampnathan) profile picture

Adam Nathan

@adampnathan

Airlines, airports, hotels and cities. I explain the strategy and infrastructure behind how we travel. San Francisco.

 More travel analysis →
readbusinessclass.com/
Joined May 2008
  • Tweets12.2K
  • Following2.1K
  • Followers41.4K
2.2KMedia
Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)Photo by Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)
On September 14, 2005, Delta and Northwest filed for bankruptcy within minutes of each other. Three years later they merged. Today Delta is worth $50 billion, more than United and American combined. American went the other way. It was worth $37 billion a year after it bought US Airways. It put 172 seats on its 737s, took out the screens, and spent $11 billion buying back its own stock. It's worth $8 billion now. Alaska bought Virgin America, which Condé Nast Traveler readers voted the best U.S. airline 10 years in a row. It shrank Virgin's San Francisco and LA flying by more than 20%, pulled the seatback screens, and retired the name two years later. I ranked the 10 best and worst airline mergers of the last 30 years. The winners took the best of what they bought. The losers treated it as worse than what they had.
Ranking of ten airline mergers since 1996. Best: Delta-Northwest, market value up 531% since 2008; IAG up 185%; Lufthansa-Swiss, one year of Swiss profit tops its price; United-Continental up 307%; America West-US Airways, margin up 10 points. Worst: American-TWA, St. Louis flights cut 50%; American-US Airways down 79% since 2014; Air France-KLM down 27%; Alaska-Virgin America, LA seats down 25% and SFO down 22%; Kingfisher-Air Deccan, stopped flying within 5 years.

ALT Ranking of ten airline mergers since 1996. Best: Delta-Northwest, market value up 531% since 2008; IAG up 185%; Lufthansa-Swiss, one year of Swiss profit tops its price; United-Continental up 307%; America West-US Airways, margin up 10 points. Worst: American-TWA, St. Louis flights cut 50%; American-US Airways down 79% since 2014; Air France-KLM down 27%; Alaska-Virgin America, LA seats down 25% and SFO down 22%; Kingfisher-Air Deccan, stopped flying within 5 years.

26
40
5
648
172,276
Adam Nathan retweeted
Adam Nathan (@adampnathan) profile picture
Adam Nathan
@adampnathanNov 6
If your airline gets bought, your hub is in trouble. I went back through the last five big US airline mergers. The airline that got bought brought 14 hubs in the first four deals, and nine of them have less flying today. The buyers had 18, and only four do. It didn't even matter who ended up running the place.
US map titled "If your airline gets bought, your hub is in trouble." Circles at the hubs of Northwest, Continental, US Airways, and Virgin America compare seats the year before each merger with now. Shrank: Minneapolis -13%, Detroit -16%, Memphis -86%, Cleveland -59%, Philadelphia -9%, San Francisco -22%, Los Angeles -25%. Grew: Newark +24%, Charlotte +25%, Reagan National +14%. Flat: Houston +2%, Phoenix +1%. Off the map: Tokyo Narita closed, Guam -14%, Honolulu -3%, Maui -12%.

ALT US map titled "If your airline gets bought, your hub is in trouble." Circles at the hubs of Northwest, Continental, US Airways, and Virgin America compare seats the year before each merger with now. Shrank: Minneapolis -13%, Detroit -16%, Memphis -86%, Cleveland -59%, Philadelphia -9%, San Francisco -22%, Los Angeles -25%. Grew: Newark +24%, Charlotte +25%, Reagan National +14%. Flat: Houston +2%, Phoenix +1%. Off the map: Tokyo Narita closed, Guam -14%, Honolulu -3%, Maui -12%.

24
26
3
569
205,857
Someone asked which side to sit on for Jackson Hole, so here's every one of my 15 favorite approaches. Save this for your next window seat. These are for the usual landing direction. If the wind flips the runway, so does the view. In terms of other airports, SYD came up a lot. What would you add?
Photo grid of 15 favorite airport approaches with which side of the plane to sit on: San Francisco either side, Washington left, Paro left, Rio right, St. Barts either, Queenstown right, Innsbruck right, Madeira left, Bora Bora left, Jackson Hole right, Nice left, Telluride right, London City either, Mykonos left, St. Maarten either.

ALT Photo grid of 15 favorite airport approaches with which side of the plane to sit on: San Francisco either side, Washington left, Paro left, Rio right, St. Barts either, Queenstown right, Innsbruck right, Madeira left, Bora Bora left, Jackson Hole right, Nice left, Telluride right, London City either, Mykonos left, St. Maarten either.

Adam Nathan (@adampnathan) profile pictureAdam Nathan
@adampnathan11h
I've spent a lot of my life looking out airplane windows. Nothing beats the approach into a city you're excited about, when the coastline, skyline, or mountains tell you where you are before you land. Here are my 15 favorites:
Image from Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)
5
2
29
5,445
Adam Nathan retweeted
Adam Nathan (@adampnathan) profile picture
Adam Nathan
@adampnathanNov 6
The money isn't waiting for the 66%. Instinct, an AI assistant you text to get things done, raised $1 billion at a $10 billion valuation in September with about 14 employees. Its founder says more than half of its transactions are travel.
Adam Nathan (@adampnathan) profile pictureAdam Nathan
@adampnathanNov 6
66% of travelers say they wouldn't trust AI to book anything for them. India's biggest travel site says its AI already helps complete more than 3,000 bookings a day. That's MakeMyTrip. Its assistant, Myra, has about 90,000 conversations a day, and people who use it book about 1.7 times as often as people who don't. Priceline's Penny now books hotels, flights, and cars inside the chat, and Google's AI Mode books hotels. The 66% is from an Expedia survey this spring, and 53% in the same survey were fine with AI suggesting options. At Booking.com, AI chatbots still send well under 1% of room nights. So should you let AI book your trip? It depends on the trip. ✅ Simple flights and hotels: Yes. If you know the dates, the city, and the budget, the AI is filling in a search form faster than you can. ✅ Questions after you book: Mostly. Myra answers 53% of post-booking questions on its own. Airbnb's assistant solves about 45% of the problems that start with it. ❌ Changes and refunds: Not yet. Whoever sold you the ticket owns it. Call American about a flight a third party booked, and its agents send you back to that agency. ❌ Points and status: No. Marriott gives no points and no elite benefits on rooms booked through online travel sites or other third parties. If your status gets you upgrades and late checkout, a bot booking through a travel site gives them up. ❌ Award seats and upgrades: No. They live inside your airline account, and the big travel sites can't spend your miles. I'd let AI book the trip I would've booked myself in ten minutes. Anything with status, points, or a decent chance of changing, I'd still book direct.
Bar chart from an Expedia Group survey by YouGov of 5,700+ adults in the US, UK, and India, March 2026: 66% wouldn't trust AI to buy or book anything for them, and 53% are comfortable letting AI suggest options.

ALT Bar chart from an Expedia Group survey by YouGov of 5,700+ adults in the US, UK, and India, March 2026: 66% wouldn't trust AI to buy or book anything for them, and 53% are comfortable letting AI suggest options.

Bar chart from MakeMyTrip's results for July to September 2026: compared with customers who don't use its AI assistant Myra (1.0x), customers who use Myra completed 1.7 times as many bookings, and Myra users in smaller Tier II and Tier III Indian cities completed 2.1 times as many. Myra helped complete more than 3,000 bookings a day from about 90,000 daily conversations.

ALT Bar chart from MakeMyTrip's results for July to September 2026: compared with customers who don't use its AI assistant Myra (1.0x), customers who use Myra completed 1.7 times as many bookings, and Myra users in smaller Tier II and Tier III Indian cities completed 2.1 times as many. Myra helped complete more than 3,000 bookings a day from about 90,000 daily conversations.

3
10
2,286
Phase five: Breeze retired its last Embraer and is flying 59 A220s, adding Mexico and Caribbean routes, more first-class seats, and deeper schedules at its strongest bases. It found thin markets. The next test is whether a much larger all-A220 airline can make them profitable.
Future-moves graphic: Breeze reports 59 A220s in its fleet and 90 firm A220 orders; these are separate measures, not a delivery subtraction. Three proposed moves are deeper schedules in established markets, nearby international flying, and more premium seats. Distinct photos show a Breeze A220 at Vero Beach, Tampa–Nassau inaugural flight tags, and Breeze's A220 first-class cabin; they illustrate the moves but do not prove future frequency or seating changes. The hurdle is a $118 million full-year net loss in 2025; future profitability is not assured.

ALT Future-moves graphic: Breeze reports 59 A220s in its fleet and 90 firm A220 orders; these are separate measures, not a delivery subtraction. Three proposed moves are deeper schedules in established markets, nearby international flying, and more premium seats. Distinct photos show a Breeze A220 at Vero Beach, Tampa–Nassau inaugural flight tags, and Breeze's A220 first-class cabin; they illustrate the moves but do not prove future frequency or seating changes. The hurdle is a $118 million full-year net loss in 2025; future profitability is not assured.

2
19
3,013
Revenue nearly tripled to $984M from 2023 to 2025, while Breeze's operating loss shrank from $157M to $16M. Q4 was operating-profitable. But after financing and other costs, it still lost $118M for the year. The operation is close; the company isn't yet sustainably profitable.
Breeze operating revenue and operating loss, 2023 to 2025, on a common dollar scale above and below zero. Square-ended teal revenue bars rise from $385 million to $684 million to $984 million. Purple loss bars narrow from $157 million to $63 million to $16 million. A top-left swatch key names both series. Padded callouts beneath each year show operating margins of negative 40.8%, negative 9.2%, and negative 1.6%. Source: U.S. DOT Form 41.

ALT Breeze operating revenue and operating loss, 2023 to 2025, on a common dollar scale above and below zero. Square-ended teal revenue bars rise from $385 million to $684 million to $984 million. Purple loss bars narrow from $157 million to $63 million to $16 million. A top-left swatch key names both series. Padded callouts beneath each year show operating margins of negative 40.8%, negative 9.2%, and negative 1.6%. Source: U.S. DOT Form 41.

1
10
3,132
The thin-route model has a tradeoff: when a flight is cancelled, fewer frequencies mean fewer ways to get there. Breeze isn't in the usual on-time rankings. DOT records show 1,315 more departures scheduled than flown in 2025. They don't say why each flight didn't operate.
Two-bar T-100 proxy comparing scheduled-departure shortfalls in 2025. Breeze's shortfall averages 762 route miles and 2.15% of scheduled departures, versus 812 miles and 2.28% at other scheduled carriers.

ALT Two-bar T-100 proxy comparing scheduled-departure shortfalls in 2025. Breeze's shortfall averages 762 route miles and 2.15% of scheduled departures, versus 812 miles and 2.28% at other scheduled carriers.

1
8
2,922
This still isn't a normal hub system. At RDU, Breeze can sell one-stop trips using BreezeThru: passengers stay on the same airplane through an intermediate city. That creates more city pairs without building a hub around connections that can misconnect.
One enlarged U.S. map of all 35 scheduled May 2026 Breeze routes from RDU. Every spoke has an airport-code label near its geographic endpoint; no distant right-side label rail remains. All route lines are purple. Thicker lines identify routes to Breeze's other currently listed bases; thinner lines identify other spokes.

ALT One enlarged U.S. map of all 35 scheduled May 2026 Breeze routes from RDU. Every spoke has an airport-code label near its geographic endpoint; no distant right-side label rail remains. All route lines are purple. Thicker lines identify routes to Breeze's other currently listed bases; thinner lines identify other spokes.

1
14
3,438
Phase three was less visible: Breeze turned scattered routes into a collection of focus-city webs. Charleston, Norfolk, Providence, Hartford, Raleigh, Orlando, and Fort Myers became repeatable nodes connecting smaller cities to Florida, the Carolinas, and the Northeast.
Full-width map of Breeze's 13 currently listed bases, colored by first documented opening year. A bottom-left key counts four 2021 bases, two 2022, one 2023, three 2024, one 2025, and two 2026. Florida has a geographic detail inset. No independently documented closed base was identified, so this is not a complete historical base chronology.

ALT Full-width map of Breeze's 13 currently listed bases, colored by first documented opening year. A bottom-left key counts four 2021 bases, two 2022, one 2023, three 2024, one 2025, and two 2026. Florida has a geographic detail inset. No independently documented closed base was identified, so this is not a complete historical base chronology.

1
10
3,659
The A220 could fly transcontinental. That didn't mean transcontinental flying was always its best use. Average scheduled stage length climbed from 631 miles in July 2021 to 924 in July 2024, then fell to 784 by May 2026. Long routes also became a smaller share of departures.
Bar chart of Breeze's departure-weighted scheduled stage length: 631 miles in 2021, rising to 924 in 2024, then falling to 784 by May 2026. The share of departures on routes at least 1,500 miles peaks at 17.4% and falls to 9.7%.

ALT Bar chart of Breeze's departure-weighted scheduled stage length: 631 miles in 2021, rising to 924 in 2024, then falling to 784 by May 2026. The share of departures on routes at least 1,500 miles peaks at 17.4% and falls to 9.7%.

1
12
3,613
The transcontinental experiment peaked in July 2025: 34 routes of at least 1,500 miles and 756 scheduled departures. Most remain current or seasonal. Three have disappeared from Breeze's current schedule: Akron–Los Angeles, Huntsville–Los Angeles, and Orange County–Tampa.
Breeze's 34 July 2025 routes over 1,500 miles. Routes are colored by western gateway, including green SFO. Three routes absent from the current schedule are red dotted lines and their airport labels are red.

ALT Breeze's 34 July 2025 routes over 1,500 miles. Routes are colored by western gateway, including green SFO. Three routes absent from the current schedule are red dotted lines and their airport labels are red.

3
19
5,183
Phase one: Breeze launched in 2021 with 10 E190s and three E195s, mostly on routes with no nonstop rival. Neeleman had used E-Jets to build Azul; Azul supplied Breeze's three E195s. Phase two: the A220 arrived in 2022, opening longer, thin routes to western cities.
Five-step Breeze network timeline, with distinct purple, blue, magenta, ochre, and green era labels and five equal-sized photos: the 2021 inaugural E195 at Tampa, a 2022 A220 at Tampa, a 2024 A220 at Orlando, a 2025 A220 at Las Vegas, and a Tampa celebration of the 2026 Nassau launch. The 2025 panel includes EWR, IAD, and SLC, larger airports present in the retained July 2025 schedule snapshot but not earlier retained snapshots; their opening dates are not asserted. Boxes show selected destinations, not a complete route list.

ALT Five-step Breeze network timeline, with distinct purple, blue, magenta, ochre, and green era labels and five equal-sized photos: the 2021 inaugural E195 at Tampa, a 2022 A220 at Tampa, a 2024 A220 at Orlando, a 2025 A220 at Las Vegas, and a Tampa celebration of the 2026 Nassau launch. The 2025 panel includes EWR, IAD, and SLC, larger airports present in the retained July 2025 schedule snapshot but not earlier retained snapshots; their opening dates are not asserted. Boxes show selected destinations, not a complete route list.

1
22
5,770
What is Breeze doing? It launched in 2021 to fly thin routes a few times a week, with nonstops instead of hub connections. Now: 91 cities, 300+ routes. It's private, so it's hard to tell if it works. I went through its network, fleet, and DOT financials. Here's what I found:
Three-panel Breeze business case, each with an idea header, visual description, and large takeaway. Breeze carried 43 passengers per day each way per carrier-route versus 343 at network mainline airlines, or 87% fewer. Its 137-seat A220 has a Breeze-attributed 20–25% lower trip-cost claim versus an A321. For BDL–CVG, the nonstop averages 2h03. Five selected paths via PHL, IAD, DTW, CLT, and ORD add a modeled 2h23, 2h25, 2h19, 2h46, and 3h29 respectively, including an illustrative 1h30 connection. The nonstop is 57% less modeled trip time than their unweighted average. Paths are not verified bookable itineraries.

ALT Three-panel Breeze business case, each with an idea header, visual description, and large takeaway. Breeze carried 43 passengers per day each way per carrier-route versus 343 at network mainline airlines, or 87% fewer. Its 137-seat A220 has a Breeze-attributed 20–25% lower trip-cost claim versus an A321. For BDL–CVG, the nonstop averages 2h03. Five selected paths via PHL, IAD, DTW, CLT, and ORD add a modeled 2h23, 2h25, 2h19, 2h46, and 3h29 respectively, including an illustrative 1h30 connection. The nonstop is 57% less modeled trip time than their unweighted average. Paths are not verified bookable itineraries.

7
7
238
56,549
Adam Nathan retweeted
Adam Nathan (@adampnathan) profile picture
Adam Nathan
@adampnathan11h
I've spent a lot of my life looking out airplane windows. Nothing beats the approach into a city you're excited about, when the coastline, skyline, or mountains tell you where you are before you land. Here are my 15 favorites:
Image from Adam Nathan (@adampnathan)
10
5
1
220
43,081

No more items