Benjamin Whitby GVNR.xyz 🔗 🇬🇧/acc 🦇🔊

One of the best macro setups of my lifetime is forming - a bet I’ve waited 20 years to put on. The final leg of the end…the end of the post WW2 economic and geopolitical framework. Interest rates will rise gratuitously. The US rates will too, but that’s a harder and more complex bet, sjnce USD and treasuries act as a safehaven asset jn crisis. I’m researching sovereigns right now. Will likely use a mix of bond shorts and CDS to short a bunch of european countries and maybe some elsewhere. Timeframe on this is likely a ~2-4 year bet (still working on that), so sizing and holding costs are critical. The why: the world (and sovereigns) are overindebted with worsening fundamentals. No one even has a hypothesis, not even a guess, as to how the situation can be resolved without crisis. To the extent AI growth helps offset the problems, the borrowing of AI companies further competes with sovereign debt, pushing yields higher still. Politically, voters upset about worsening cost of living (and soon, rising unemployment), demand help, and the easiest (and most practical) help politicians can give (short term) is printing money for more handouts and services. Or…they engage in more deficit spending which further pushes up yields.