Helping institutions, builders, and individuals power the future with liquidity, capital, ideas, and infrastructure. Managing Partner: @ag_dwf
Joined June 2022
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$80.5M of inflows across BTC and ETH ETFs last week.
BTC: +$301.2M, ending two straight outflow weeks.
Monday to Wednesday brought $1.07B in, then Thursday and Friday took $774M out. Thursday’s -$635.6M was the largest single-day outflow since June 25 (-$691.7M).
The level to watch is ~$78.1K, 7% below October 21’s close, now the highest of the past 20 days. Once BTC closes 7% below its 20-day high, ETF flows have historically flipped from +$74M a day to -$72M within a week. Saturday’s $79,107 low came within 1.2% of it.
ETH: -$220.7M, a fourth straight outflow week.
ETH ETFs have lost $1.22B since September 28, cutting year-to-date flows from +$1.62B to +$400.5M. 14 of 17 October sessions closed negative.
Back tomorrow. BYO laptop and ideas.
luma.com/th1tt2tg
Incoming: Hot Desk Wednesdays. Come build (and work) with us. Free desk, good people, connection guaranteed.
October 28 → luma.com/th1tt2tg
November 4 → luma.com/qt4iagy8
November 11 → luma.com/mivnxe1i
Spots limited, registration recommended.
Incoming: Hot Desk Wednesdays. Come build (and work) with us. Free desk, good people, connection guaranteed.
October 28 → luma.com/th1tt2tg
November 4 → luma.com/qt4iagy8
November 11 → luma.com/mivnxe1i
Spots limited, registration recommended.
Incoming: Key market moments this week.
Wednesday:
US: FOMC rate decision (2:00pm ET).
EU: ECB meeting begins (decision Thursday).
Other: Bank of Canada decision (9:45am ET) with its Monetary Policy Report.
Thursday:
US: Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE (8:30am ET).
EU: ECB rate decision (14:15 CET), followed by the press conference.
Friday:
Asia: Bank of Japan decision.
What are you keeping an eye on?
About a 5th of ETF flow appears hedged via the CME basis trade.
Hedge fund net short peaked near 116k BTC in Dec 2024 and is now ~29k.
Less basis noise means ETF flows are a cleaner read of real demand today.
Every week we publish our perspectives on the markets (and more) through the lens of a market-tested liquidity provider, investor and incubator.
→ Eyes on the Market, our weekly market briefing
→ Research from @DWFVentures
→ Data stories and commentary
Be the first to read: dwflabs.substack.com/
Big ETF outflow on a day BTC barely moved?
It’s the one setup worth watching: BTC fell over the next 20 days in 8 of 12 cases. But all of those came from just three sell-offs.
A warning, not a signal.
DWF Labs retweeted
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows in seven of eight selloffs of at least 15% since January 2024, @DWFLabs found.
Withdrawals hit a record $8.2B during the May–June 2026 decline, when Bitcoin fell 28.8%.
via @hardeyjumoh
cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-etfs…
Building and collaboration IRL. At this week’s HotDesk Wednesday, we brought our Dubai community together for a chance to connect, work, and learn.
@Legoman_Grizu from @hypewrks hosted a workshop on how GenAI is reshaping video production and how teams can collaborate at scale.
To join next week’s HotDesk event, register here: luma.com/th1tt2tg
Catch our team in Dubai 🇦🇪
@ag_dwf and @AlessiaBaumgar will be speaking at @BlLife_Forum on 1-2 December.
See you there:
blockchain-life.com/?utm_sou…
Eyes on the Market Vol. 26: Inflation Running Hot
BTC fell 2.47% from Monday’s open to Friday’s close. The Nasdaq fell 4.43% on an AI selloff. BTC lost a little over half as much as tech. ETH fell 4.81% and lost the relative strength against BTC we have tracked since July.
What moved markets this week:
→ Core CPI beat. Headline rose 0.6% m/m as expected, but core rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected and 2.6% y/y against 2.5%. Annual core had hit its lowest level since March 2021 a month ago. That low has now reversed.
→ PPI rose 1.3%, its largest monthly gain since March 2022. Goods prices rose 2.6%, a record for the series. Crude oil inputs jumped 28.3%, costs businesses have not yet passed on.
→ October hike odds on Polymarket jumped from 22% to 48% on CPI, then fell to 13% after Warsh declined to signal the October 27–28 decision.
→ MSCI adopted its non-operating company screen. Strategy and Metaplanet are on the provisional deletion list, effective November 30.
→ ETFs lost $548.5M. ETH ETFs posted a third straight outflow week, $1B over three weeks, reversing 62% of their 2026 inflows.
Catch @Lingersj, Partner, at the @DAF_Global Forum in New York City on 13 November 2026.
Register to see her on stage: eblockchainconvention.com/di…
Lingling Jiang (@Lingersj) brings 10+ years across derivatives, global markets and digital assets, with experience at BNP Paribas, Point72 and OSL.
Today, as Partner at @DWFLabs, she works across liquidity, venture investment and ecosystem development. She also serves as Partner at Falcon Finance, driving partnerships across DeFi, security and RWAs.
Lingling joins the DAF New York speaker lineup this November.
Be in the room where institutional digital assets get decided:
eblockchainconvention.com/di…
Key events for the week ahead:
Tuesday, October 20
US: The comment period closes on the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal.
Wednesday, October 21
EIA crude inventories, 10:30am ET.
Thursday, October 22
US: Initial jobless claims, 8:30am ET. The prior reading was 199K, consensus is 200K.
Friday, October 23
US: S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMIs, 9:45am ET. September’s readings were 55.9 for manufacturing and 58.8 for services.