Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava) profile picture

humbition: investing preseed & seed, Built @indiegogo, @DiscoverVincent, @nillionnetwork, Smart Humans Pod and our alts newsletter - https://nitter.gq/t.co/PMQOiQtgKQ

New York, USA
Joined August 2008
Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)Photo by Slava Rubin (@gogoSlava)
Great chat with @mlevchin (founder of Affirm and Paypal) and his formula for winning venture investments
New episode of the pod just dropped! @gogoSlava talked with Silicon Valley Legend @mlevchin - the co-founder of Paypal and current CEO and co-founder of @Affirm. A must-listen for anyone interested in entrepreneurship and angel investing. Full episode here: withvincent.com/research/sma… Here, Max talks about what he looks for in a company when angel investing.
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"There's going to be a growing interest in having a crypto allocation in everyone's portfolios." New pod! @gogoSlava Rubin sat down with @FranklnTempletn Head of Innovation Sandy Kaul to talk about digital assets, tokenization, and the future of finance. withvincent.com/research/sma…
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Failure is the building block to success
A girl just said she tried to get rejected 1000 times in 2025 and ended up being cast in plays, winning pageants, securing hella paid brand deals, and appearing in commercials.This is your sign to chase rejection to the point of "accidental" success. You'll be surprised.
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Slava Rubin retweeted
Impressive. This set of talks, along with the new America dot gov website, has the unmistakable feel of an Apple launch event. They're rebooting the federal government as a tech startup. Several observations. (1) First, with this new AI interface to the entire federal government, if it works as promised, there won't be a single American who can't say their life wasn't helped at least in part by AI, or that the benefits accrued solely to zillionaires. This in itself cannily mitigates anti-datacenter sentiment. (2) Second, Joe Gebbia and Marco Rubio's talks on simplifying name changes and passport filings introduce a completely new era where the US government is actually launching tangible features that benefit users. (3) Third, this launch event in and of itself may visibly drive reform. It could become much more important than the State of the Union. Unlike laws, code is user-visible, and can be instantly audited by the public, as Obama found out with the failed obamacare website launch. So: the annual America dot gov event may be substance, whereas SOTU is traditionally optics. I wouldn't be surprised to see the President present at the next one. (4) Fourth, this kind of event is a perfect example of where tech and red cooperate best. They both hate bureaucracy. Automating paperwork with code reduces the power of statists over both capitalists and nationalists. It's also hard to undo by other admins: once you digitize a process, hard to turn it back to paper. (5) Fifth, it's an obvious point perhaps, but think about how much influence YCombinator has had in 20 years. From Gebbia's Airbnb joining their 2009 batch to a complete overhaul of the user interface of the US bureaucracy, and thus the US government. (6) Sixth, this is another take on the network state. The functional part of the US (the network, meaning tech) is merging with and partially reforming the dysfunctional part (the state, meaning bureaucracy) by automating 20th century paper forms. As a tech startup, there will no doubt be bugs and user issues and so on, but unlike with paper laws those issues will be visible and the code fixes will be verifiable. A new era of AI America. Rooting for them.
Congrats to the @ndstudio team on launch of America.gov ! 🇺🇸
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"Hopefully a robot in every commercial kitchen around the country and the globe." Latest episode of the pod is out - @gogoSlava Rubin sat down with @RajatBhageria, the founder of @ChefRobotics, to talk about all things Physical AI and robotics. withvincent.com/research/sma…
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We grew from ~0 to $500M ARR, adding $250M last year alone while being EBITDA profitable. 1,300-word post on every growth tactic that worked for us: 1. What got us from 0-$400M ARR in the US works in every country. 2. Retention and Monetisation Hacks. 3. Localization > Translation. 4. Experiment with $1M internal seed checks. 5. Pivoting to only AI content production unlocked 100% ARR growth. Pocket FM is like Netflix for audio-only dramas, with our own pool of one-person studios. 1. Acquisition Playbook for 0-$10M ARR in any country in 6 months We run a 90 sec video trailer of an audio drama as an Ad and ask users to download the app if they're interested in the rest of the story. Our core insight after spending >$100M on acquisition is: If the clickthrough rate (CTR) for an ad goes from 2% to 2.25%, our customer acquisition cost (CAC) decreases by ~ 30%. We remodelled our system around this insight and built an AI-first 2.25% CTR ad manufacturing machine that works in every country. For every new country, we take our hit shows -> use LLMs to extract and most intriguing moments -> Write a 5-min script combining all the best parts. The first 60 seconds has to have a hook every 5 seconds and needs to end with a crazy cliffhanger to force a download mid-scroll. If a marketing video is not hitting our benchmarks (2.5% CTR and 55% 3-second through-play), a creative director gets involved to change the hook or cliffhanger to get the numbers there. AI lets us make 1,000 Ads per show, and in total we do ~17.5k Ads per month. When a business creating scales from 1k to 10k Ads, the normal thing is for CAC to skyrocket. But with what I just shared, we 7-8x'd our User Acquisition budget without increasing our CAC materially. It took us 8 months to figure this out, but then the timeline from 0-$10M in every country got shorter and shorter: US revenue grew to $25M in 19 months. (US is now 78% of total) Germany to 21M in 11 months. France to $10M in 3 months. 2. Retention and Monetisation Hacks. We knew we wanted to create an audio entertainment platform, but there was no standard format. For the first 2-3 years, we tried 10 different formats before landing on the winner. After we got it right with audio drama (8-12min chapters, written for mobile fiction, serialized, episodes have strong hooks and end on cliffhangers), avg daily streaming time went from ~25mins to 150+. Audio drama made us realize that Pocket FM was creating a whole new medium. There was no playbook for anything that we were doing. Everything had to be thought & built from scratch. This is what we did for each major bullet: - Monetization: Users have some free daily minutes to listen; then it's pay per episode. We also added the option for users to unlock episodes by watching ads, which is doing extremely well. Ads scaled from zero to a ~$90M run rate in 12 months. - Engagement & production: You don't become obsessed with an app you open once a week. To have users engage daily, we make the next episode free every day. Also helps them build the habit. - Discovery. Huge problem because people consuming Pocket FM enter the app, tap the show, and lock the screen. We fixed it by doing "playlists" of episodes. Once users's free minutes on a show are done, we ask users if they want to pay. If they say no, we play a new show, one where they haven't used their free mins. And we stitch episodes of different shows together that way, creating natural discovery. 3. Localization > translation. 78% of our revenue is still concentrated in the US. Localisation is fixing this: You might write a show for a Spanish audience where language, jokes, folklore, have a certain flavor; if you merely translate the show for, say, a Norwegian audience, that color is lost and hurts the show in the Norway. Listeners would relate more if the show was written by a Norwegian. That's why, instead of translating, we localize shows to different regions. We use AI to take the spine of stories and adapt their whole cultural layer to the other country. The results: a US show that was localized for a German audience had 50% higher retention than the translated version. Localization + our user acquisition playbook led to: - $10M+ ARR in France within 3 months - $21M+ ARR in Germany within 11 months. And this expands writers' addressable market. We get messages of writers thrilled to have revenue coming from the US, India, EU, LatAm, without them doing much incremental work. 4. Experiment. We give $1M checks to new internal initiatives, and the team has 12-18 months to prove their thesis. If they prove it, we double down. This is how Pocket Saga came about, our AI video microdrama app. It's an AI video equivalent of Pocket FM. Same shows and structure, but as a vertical 2-min mobile video series. We launched it two months ago and it's at ~$15M ARR. Pocket's broader thesis is to help creators tell their stories to as many people as possible. Start with audio drama -> multiple languages or localize to diff countries -> microdrama -> more formats like movies, TV shows, and games. Best of all is that writers get revenue streams not only from countries they wouldn't have tapped into, but also from formats they wouldn't have thought possible. 5. Pivoting to only AI content production unlocked 100% ARR growth. In mid-2024, we pivoted to only AI content production. Our growth took a very direct hit. Pocket was already at $200M ARR, growing 50% YoY, and we flatlined for a whole semester. Six months later, the business exploded. After the switch, we went from ~25k hours of content produced per year to over 2.5M hours, which are also higher quality. Because AI orchestrates the writing and more data is fed into it, more blockbusters come out. Over 90 titles have $1M+ in lifetime earnings and 13 crossed $10M. Quality control is done with LLM as a judge, and LLMs are quite tough. Results are very encouraging: - 12-month revenue retention went from 44% to 76%. - In the past year, we added $250M in net new ARR. __________________________________ Pocket Entertainment (Pocket FM + Pocket Saga) has become the largest AI entertainment platform. We have the largest storytelling catalog with 770,000 titles, 550k creators, and 5.5B hours of playtime with minute by minute retention & engagement data. We are using all of this data to improve every aspect of our business. Our Bet: In the next 3 years we will be able to produce Naruto-like series for $1000. Netflix has to spend $17B to find 100 Blockbusters per year. What happens when you can produce 1M high quality shows for $1B? The streaming wars caused a $300B reallocation of market cap. The AI entertainment wars may be a $1T+ reshuffling of market cap. We are at a unique spot. Unlike other AI creator tools like Runway or Midjourney, we own both the supply and demand side of AI content. We've attracted over 550,000 writers who are producing an annualized 2.5M hours of content every year. This pairs with 137B+ minutes streamed. Because of this, growth is accelerating as we scale further. We have multiple S-curves inflecting at the same time: - AI produces better and more ads -> scale faster in new countries - ⁠Writers + AI produce more shows -> more blockbusters - ⁠Localisation -> more reach per blockbuster - ⁠Audio to video format expansion -> larger TAM -> more creators Every aspect of our business is designed to improve another, and everything is aligned so that the number of blockbusters continues to rise. If you're interested in building at the intersection of ai, tech and entertainment, DM me.
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ICYMI, our investor briefing on the Nuclear & Alternative Energy sector is available to watch - Slava Rubin & Jan-Erik Asplund talked about emerging companies like @TerraPower, @CFS_energy, @xenergynuclear, and more. withvincent.com/research/inv…
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Slava Rubin retweeted
Whenever other founders ask me who my best investors are and who I’d recommend they work with, I name the handful of VCs who rarely bother us and trust us to operate. It’s funny how simply doing nothing as an investor can put you in the top 1% of a founder’s book.
Similar story. My company Support.com was one of the handful of cos that could go public in the end of the dotcom IPO window bc we had $170m in bookings. Accel went on a jihad to replace me as CEO bc i was 32 and had never run a public co. They literally couldnt find a single reason other than my lack of age and experience and i had the junior partner who needed to prove he had the mojo to change out one of ‘his’ ceo’s. I regret that i eventually caved since it led to such a lower $$ outcome with the grey haired HP ceo who had no ability to navigate the multiple reinventions needed. Thats why my advice to founders is 1) keep control at all costs and 2) take passive investors (like yuri milner/dst) over the VC builders who ultimately want to put their own stamp on your co.
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An awesome team doing great work in the prediction market space. Been excellent to see their execution from the beginning
Today, River Markets announced an $8.5M seed round led by @HaunVentures . We’re building the prime broker for prediction markets, giving professional trading firms unified execution and risk across venues. Blog post : rivermarkets.com/blog/announ…
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"If you were excited about [it] at the IPO price and didn't buy, then this is a perfect opportunity." @SpaceX stock is up 15% today - on Tuesday, that's what @janerikasplund said about it. withvincent.com/research/inv…
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Slava Rubin retweeted
When you know, you know! A FOURTH MJ ROOKIE CARD! This is CRAZY! Watch @loganpaul & Ken Goldin on Goldin’s @ebay Live and Logan’s YouTube!
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Slava Rubin retweeted
AND A MJ STICKER TOO! @findyourtrove got a MJ ROOKIE AND STICKER TONIGHT! Watch @loganpaul and @kengoldin on our @ebay Live and Logan’s YouTube! 🙏🎉
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ICYMI, @gogoSlava Rubin and @janerikasplund took a in-depth look at Pre-IPO opportunities in AI infrastructure, focusing on Fluidstack and other key companies Brought to you by @TemplumHQ withvincent.com/research/inv…
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Sitting is the smoking of our generation
Sitting for 6 or more hours per day makes you 40% more likely to die within 15 years than someone who sits for less than three hours a day.
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"I like putting money into things I felt I can understand." One more from @gogoSlava Rubin's chat with @iconnections_io CEO @rbiscardi, who talks about investing strategies. withvincent.com/research/sma…
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"SpaceX is going to be worth much more money than its IPO price." The latest episode of the pod is out - @gogoSlava Rubin sat down with @iconnections_io CEO @rbiscardi to talk private markets and how the SpaceX IPO is shaking up the ecosystem. withvincent.com/research/sma…
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Slava Rubin retweeted
Truist's Keith Lerner took a look at 30 major IPOs. The Year 1 max drawdown column stands out.
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The Three Humans Left in a VC Firm Fred Wilson, co-founder, Union Square Ventures, interviewed by Michael Mignano (USV) [I post one executive summary daily of an interview I enjoyed and learnt from. I loved this interview that @mignano did with @fredwilson, who I've learnt a tremendous amount from on the board of Coinbase. Tons of great nuggets for founders and investors.] Summary: After 40 years in venture, Wilson has rebuilt USV around a single conviction. Only three things in the firm still need a human: picking the thesis, building relationships with founders working in that thesis, and supporting them after the check. Everything else, including sourcing, diligence, term sheets, and CRM, is being handed to agents. The interview is a working sketch of what a venture firm looks like when the back half of its job becomes software, and a clear read on what stays human-only and why. 1. The Three Humans Left. A year ago Wilson wrote a memo to his partners saying that if he were starting USV from scratch today, only three jobs would stay with humans: high-level thesis development, building relationships with founders inside that thesis, and supporting them after the check. Everything else gets handed to agents. USV is now executing on that memo, not theorizing about it. For founders raising, this is the new operating profile of the firm sitting across the table. 2. Agents Love Data Rooms. "I hate data rooms. Agents love data rooms." USV no longer asks a junior associate to scrub the data room before a term sheet. An agent reads the room and answers questions in conversation: cap table, vesting, founder ownership, anything in the corpus. The effect on partner time is direct, with less work on the parts of the job no one enjoys and more time with founders. 3. Term Sheets Without Lawyers. USV's term sheets are now written by an agent, with no outside counsel stamp at the term-sheet stage. The firm seeded the agent with standard term sheets by sector and by stage, then partners shape each document in conversation with the agent. Wilson does not yet trust an agent to write long-form definitive docs. The implication for founders: term sheets land faster, with less round-trip friction, and the cost structure of the next-generation venture firm starts to drop. 4. The Kill Zone Test. Wilson ran a sample contract through a legal-AI startup and through raw Claude Code, side by side, and Claude's markup was better. "All of legal AI is in the kill zone." The test is portable to almost any AI vendor pitch. If a wrapper company cannot outperform the raw model on the thing it sells, the wrapper is paying for the privilege of being disrupted. Operators should run the same test before signing a multi-year contract. 5. No Wrappers Allowed. To survive the kill zone you cannot wrap a model. You have to rebuild the business model from scratch around the new economics. Cursor is the example Wilson reaches for: it has been hugely successful, but more developers are dropping back to raw Claude Code, and nothing stops Anthropic from shipping an IDE. A defensible AI company redesigns the workflow itself, so the foundation lab would have to abandon its current pricing model to copy. 6. Energy Is the AI Trade. About a third of USV's deployment now goes to energy, because no matter which model wins, the winner needs power. The firm has backed a decentralized model-training network and a company that turns each grid-scale solar and wind plant into a mini data center selling inference tokens. The trade is indexed to AI without forcing USV to pick the model. Builders hunting for a less crowded adjacent market should read the same memo, because the picks and shovels of AI run through electricity. 7. Sellers, Not Coders. The skill USV now overweights in founders is selling: recruiting, fundraising, convincing customers, inspiring teams. Forty years has taught Wilson that the founder who can tell the story and bring it to life wins more often than the founder who can write the code. The corollary is uncomfortable for technical founders. "Actually being able to write code is probably not a big deal anymore," though enough technical vision to see three moves ahead still matters. If you are a CEO who cannot recruit, that is now your constraint. 8. The 80–90% Open Source Window. Open-source models, especially the ones shipping out of Asia, are running at 80 to 90 percent of the quality of the closed frontier models. Right now the closed labs are subsidizing usage, so price does not force the comparison. When the labs have to charge a real margin, open source becomes a serious value alternative and the playing field levels. Wilson is not betting the firm on this outcome, but he is hedging into the quadrant where open source wins. 9. Founders Still Want Humans. Founders do not want to raise money from an agent. They want to know the human they are getting in business with, and that is why Wilson does not see VC automating itself out of a job in the short term. The firm can automate the back half of the workflow. The front half, sitting across from a founder at 11 p.m. when they have had a horrible day, stays human. 10. Don't Pass on Price. The biggest regrets of Wilson's career are deals he passed on because the price was too high. The market-clearing valuation will almost always feel uncomfortable a year later, and the right answer is to find a way in, even if that means buying secondary instead of leading the round. Saying no on price is a defensive move masquerading as discipline. Founders raising can use the line in negotiation, because a firm that walks on price is telling you it has not adjusted to the current market. 11. Offense Over Defense. Wilson lost $25 million in six months in 2001 and learned that getting it wrong is a byproduct of the job, not a verdict on the investor. He spent his first 15 years scared of losing money and only got good at venture once he stopped playing defense. The advice is harder to apply for someone breaking in, because the first checks really do matter, but the directive holds at every level. For operators, the analog is the founder who refuses to ship until the product is perfect, because you cannot win a game you are not playing. 12. The Relationship Is the Moat. After 40 years and an AI rebuild of the firm, Wilson's one-line summary of the venture business is the same as it was on day one. The relationship between the investor and the founder is the secret sauce. Everything else, including the work USV used to staff up to do, gets compressed by technology. Find great founders, build real relationships with them, and help them build great companies. If your venture pitch to LPs does not lead with that, you are pitching the wrong business.
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Fun to be back on the podcast and give more picks
Last time @gogoSlava Rubin and was a guest on Smart Humans, he gave us a couple of winning investment picks. The latest episode of the pod brings him back (with guest host @ecantor) to assess the market and give us more picks for the next three years. withvincent.com/research/sma…
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"This is not science fiction. This is happening for real." ICYMI, our investor briefing on Waymo and the self-driving industry is available to watch - @gogoSlava Rubin and @janerikasplund look at why it's getting so much investor capital and attention. withvincent.com/research/pre…
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