Jim Scheinman

In 2015, we fought a bad deal rolled out with remarkable discipline by an Obama administration that proved far better at messaging and political warfare than at negotiating with Tehran. They won the short-term political debate, and the result was a deal that put Iran on a patient pathway to nuclear weapons, a missile and drone arsenal, ICBMs, massive sanctions relief, a growing terror army, and what would end up as permanent dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. In 2026, the fight is over an MOU with serious flaws that could create even greater problems. Ironically, it comes from a Trump administration that rightly abandoned the fatally flawed JCPOA. Then, to its credit, it built enormous leverage in partnership with Israel through economic pressure, military action and covert operations that shattered Iranian capabilities which had reached their zenith on October 7, 2023. Yet, so far, the administration has done a poor job explaining the MOU and its strategy—at times recycling the same discredited Obama-Kerry talking points—and has managed to unite both supporters and critics against the a deal that it still hasn’t released. The real question is not just the MOU itself, though there will be intense scrutiny over what was gained and what was surrendered in this phase one deal. So far, it doesn’t look promising. The real question is what happens when President Trump fails to secure a final deal. He will still retain significant military and economic leverage, but how much of it will erode over the next 60 days? Refueling global energy markets may strengthen America’s position, but is he merely exchanging nuclear extortion for Hormuz extortion? Will he finally empower the U.S. military to expand its effective, largely quiet effort to move tankers safely through the Strait? Does he believe that Iran will willingly surrender its Hormuz and nuclear extortion rackets? Is he prepared to go back to Epic and Economic Fury? Will he with midterms looming? Can he wait until after midterms with economic leverage diminishing and a military force that can’t stay in position indefinitely? But none of these instruments of power is sufficient. The missing pillar of U.S. strategy remains the same: putting American power behind the tens of millions of Iranians who despise this regime and have the potential to cripple it from within. The regime’s greatest vulnerability is not sanctions, diplomacy, blockades, or military pressure alone. It is the Iranian people. Call it Operation People’s Fury — there’s no one who despises the regime more than the Iranian people and no one who has risked more over decades to try and bring it down. A durable strategy should start there. The president should instruct the relevant agencies to develop a maximum support plan. He will need it very soon when negotiations fail.