Chief Investment Officer and Chief Economist @Allianz. Research Fellow @Harvard & @UniBocconi. Member @CAEInfo. Views are mine.
Joined March 2012
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Bearing the brunt of the bond sell-off? #France: 10-year OAT yields up 150bps since the Hormuz crisis. Fiscal fragility & thin liquidity amplify risks to the French economy and Eurozone bond markets ahead of the 2027 elections #FrenchEconomy #BondMarkets tinyurl.com/bdd298tp
Ahead of #COP31 in Antalya, renewables have overtaken coal, but global net zero is still projected only for 2064, putting the 1.5°C goal further out of reach. #GreenTransition needs faster grid & storage investment: tinyurl.com/32n9nhrm
Ludovic Subran retweeted
1️⃣ Why does Europe struggle to fund its own startups? Look at where it keeps its retirement money.
Americans hold retirement savings worth 153% of GDP. The Dutch, 151%. The French, 13%. Germans, 6%.
Most of Europe pays pensions out of today's wages. So it never builds the big pools of long-term capital that fund VC in the US.
(I work at Vsquared Ventures, an early-stage deep tech VC firm investing across Europe. Views my own.)
(OECD)
Impressive journalistic moment
“I don’t want to be just sitting there for two years vetoing everything.”
President Donald Trump picked up a call from @DashaBurns on POLITICO Elections Live and talked to us about the blue wave and how he’s willing to work with incoming congressional Democrats.
Watch live now: politi.co/4AgCofb
🙄
Reporter: “Have you spoken to Vice President Vance?”
President Trump: “Yeah. I'm speaking to him about a lot of things. But, I mean, we'll see what happens. Everybody, I mean, you don't know who's talking about running. You can have people running. You can have a lot of people, maybe a lot of people running. Maybe nobody's going to run. Maybe he won't run. I don't know who's going to run. But I can tell you that as far as that war is concerned, I would have done nothing different. We've totally broken their military. The Navy's gone. Their Air Force is gone. Their anti-aircraft is gone.”
I think Vance would make a great president, but I’m not sure he can win!
Conceded the result + article about not attacking Iran = best scenario for a blue wave — for now. Enjoy while you can 🍿 #Midterms2026
Ludovic Subran retweeted
Stock markets up after election results. But what is most interesting is the composition. Health and solar up, data centers and Musk-related down. Crypto up may be the one I wouldn't have expected.
And note, markets presumably had already been pricing in large Democratic gains.
A Democratic sweep may constrain Washington, but not reset US policy. Watch Iran-driven oil inflation, fiscal tensions and state-level AI curbs as key risks for the #USEconomy and #FinancialMarkets: tinyurl.com/59p7aczx
Ludovic Subran retweeted
🇺🇸 ATLAS POLL | US MIDTERMS 2026
US SENATE
Democratic candidates lead in all 10 U.S. Senate races surveyed by AtlasIntel, with margins ranging from 2.4pp in Minnesota to 14.9pp in North Carolina.
🔵 North Carolina: Cooper +14.9pp
🔵 Maine: Jackson +9.1pp
🔵 New Hampshire: Pappas +8.1pp
🔵 Ohio: Brown +7.5pp
🔵 Michigan: El-Sayed +7.1pp
🔵 Kansas: Hamilton +7.0pp
🔵 Texas: Talarico +5.9pp
🔵 Alaska: Peltola +5.5pp
🔵 Iowa: Turek +4.1pp
🔵 Minnesota: Flanagan +2.4pp
Ludovic Subran retweeted
While on the topic of dispersion within asset classes, this from the FT on high yield bonds in Europe and the US:
"While the yield investors demand to hold the weakest junk-rated issuers has widened, so has the gap between those companies and their higher-rated junk market peers. In Europe, the difference in yield investors demand for CCC-rated and BB-rated bonds has skyrocketed."
#economy #markets #bonds #investing #investors @FT
Go get ‘em tiger
I will be leaving the @ECB in February 2027 because I want to have the freedom of speech, the freedom of expression, and the freedom to engage on matters that are not monetary policy matters.
Ludovic Subran retweeted
.@Lagarde: "I want to have the freedom of speech, the freedom of engage in matters that are not related to monetary policy [...] in many corners of the World, not only Europe".
Ludovic Subran retweeted
I have just informed my colleagues that I will step down as @ECB President on 7 February 2027.
It has been a source of great pride to serve this institution.
I thank all of those who have supported me on this journey over the past seven years.
Ludovic Subran retweeted
Bloomberg: "A new anxiety is gripping Wall Street as it bankrolls the vast network of data centers and chips behind the artificial intelligence boom: Early signs suggest that the credit market is approaching the limits of how much more debt it can absorb.
One after another, yields are soaring into the double digits on bonds and loans funding the AI infrastructure buildout. Bankers are finding it more difficult to offload risk to insurers and other investors."
#economy #markets #debt #ai #ArtificialIntelligence #bonds
US financial stability increasingly relies on public backstops. #Fed and #Treasury interventions buy time, but cannot reverse structural shifts pointing to higher #USTreasuries volatility, a weaker #USD and a greater role for gold: tinyurl.com/53t85vjh
It was great to be on @BloombergTV this morning to talk about the #Fed with @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 and @annmarie! Thank you for having me!
youtube.com/watch?v=42SaCJ3f…
We should have long ago also used the retail channel like Italy but the lobbies opposed. Any good parent investor now would love to buy 10y treasury at 5% for their kids, if you ask me.
France’s dependence on foreign investors leaves it exposed bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @alicegledhill1
Ludovic Subran retweeted
At these multiples, we need either record valuations to last another decade or earnings growth we have seen only twice since 1880 for US equities to beat TIPS over the next decade. Just to harvest a small equity premium. thetwocents.substack.com/p/t…
#GlobalInsolvencies rise 5% in 2026, the 4th consecutive annual increase. The US leads at +12%; 376 major firms failed in 9M, putting 2.7mn jobs at risk annually in 2026–27. #CorporateRisk tinyurl.com/2z2hyj4r
