The home for prediction market traders. Sports, politics, culture, tech, and more. By @actionnetworkhq.
Joined May 2017
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Who wins the Senate? 🗳️
40,000 simulations. 6 races that decide it. 10 places we disagree with the market.
Updated daily 👉 predictionpro.com/midterms/m…
Prediction Pro retweeted
🗳️ @zhoujaron sits down with @EastBreese on the Predicting Politics podcast to recap the midterms!
Download the DraftKings Sports app and use code ACTIONNETWORK. The crown is yours. @DKSports
Kalshi traders now trying to predict what caused the outage 👀
Where's the cyberattack strike?
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🚨 BREAKING: FAA halts all U.S. departures in a rare nationwide ground stop
❌ 1,913 cancellations, 10,494 delays (FlightAware, 6 p.m. ET)
🗣️ DOT cites a communication issue at all air traffic control centers
⏳ DHS: no timeline to restart yet
🎤 Morgan Wallen is running away with Billboard's No. 1 artist of 2026
📈 Wallen was ~40% in July before an August surge
💿 "I'm the Problem" was the best-selling US album at midyear
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Van Hollen needs 28 votes to take Schumer's job. He currently has 4 supporters on record.
🔵 Schumer (D): 86¢
🔵 Van Hollen (D): 14¢
9 of 55 Democrats are against Schumer. About 16 are publicly with him, and the rest haven't made their positions known yet. The vote is a secret ballot on Dec 1.
If Schumer's camp falls short, the fallback is more likely to be a consensus pick rather than Van Hollen.
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Election night was rough for JD Vance, and the markets noticed.
Ohio flipped and the candidates he rallied for lost. Breaking it down with @ZhouJaron.
Watch here 👉 youtube.com/watch?v=m6xlaNU7…
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🚀 Tesla–SpaceX merger odds are now favored
📈 56% chance a merger is officially announced by Feb. 28, 2027, per prediction markets
⏪ Was ~27% earlier this week
📰 Bloomberg: talks are advancing, and a deal could come as soon as December
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This odds move spotted in our Biggest Movers tool 👇 predictionpro.com/markets/bi…
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🪙 Gold dip odds nearly triple
📉 28% chance gold futures dip to $3,500 by end of December, per prediction markets
⏪ Was 10% a day earlier
🏦 Traders see an 87% chance of a December Fed hike
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🕊️ Envoys meet Putin. Markets don't budge.
Chance of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement, per prediction markets:
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Track every Russia–Ukraine market live 👇predictionpro.com
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🚨 Jensen Huang exit odds explode
📈 73.5% chance Nvidia announces his resignation or removal by Dec. 31, per prediction markets
⏪ Was 16.5% at 3 p.m. CT
⚡ 48% it happens by Friday
WSJ: Nvidia's board could meet as soon as tonight to decide his future
Nvidia shares fell ~8% after hours
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🚀 SpaceX is still the IPO to beat
Biggest IPO of 2026 by market cap, per prediction markets:
⚫ SpaceX: 88%
🟢 Anthropic: 10% (was 51.5% on Oct. 12)
🎯 The bar: ~$2.1T, SpaceX's market cap at its June debut close
Anthropic's reported valuation talk: $1.1T–$1.3T
Markets expect its IPO Nov. 19–20
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🗳️ Trump's blessing isn't a lock
Chance Trump endorses him first vs. wins the GOP nomination, per prediction markets:
🔴 Vance: 52% endorsement, 30.8% nomination
🔴 Rubio: 32% endorsement, 19.4% nomination
Vance's endorsement edge doesn't fully carry over to the nomination
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🏛️ Speaker Jeffries? Markets say 94%
🔵 94.3% chance Hakeem Jeffries is the first Speaker after the midterms
📊 Held between 92.6% and 94.3% every evening since Nov. 4
🪑 House Democrats have 250+ seats (218 needed)
--> The vote comes in January when the new Congress convenes
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