Snarks from the sidelines while the world burns. Would've played the fiddle, but doesn't know how. All usual caveats apply.
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Joined March 2017
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Shmuel Shmuel retweeted
maarachot.idf.il/2022/%D7%92โฆ
#ืคืืืฆืื @OrenHazan1 ืืื ื ืืจืืืฆืื ืชืืจื ืขื ืืืืื ืืืช ืืืืืืื ืืช ืฉื ืืืื ืืขื ืืงืฉืจ ืืืฉืจืื
ืชืืื @maarachot_idf ืขื ืืืืช ืืื ืืืืงืฆืืขื
ืืืืืืืื ืืฉ ืืืืจ ืืขืืื ืฉื @IditShafran ืื ืืืื ืืืื ืืืืืง ืืช ืืืืืืื ืืืชื!
Lessons learned about fratricide from the IDF
#miltwitter
Colonel (retired) Boaz Amidror's important book on "friendly fire", which is based on IDF lessons, has been translated into English. Highly recommended. amazon.com/dp/B0B45DX9K6?refโฆ
reuters.com/world/middle-easโฆ
A reminder that wars have a long tail.
Don't go pick up stuff in old battlegrounds.
Shmuel Shmuel retweeted
It's going to be weird if the Ukrainians take a deal that's in their interest and then the 12 Armored Twitter Brigade demands they keep fighting to the last Ukrainian.
For you Hebrew speakers out there
Set a reminder for my upcoming Space! nitter.gq/i/spaces/1LyGBoYlkVrJN
ืกืคืืืก ืฉื ื. ืืืจ, 1730. ืจืืกืื-ืืืงืจืืื ื ื-100 ืืฆืง"ืืื ืฉืื ืืื.
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Check out this quote: "Their โsalvation fantasiesโ combined aโฆ" - "The Future ofโฆ" by Lawrence Freedman a.co/0lG9yjH
This is true for every foreign humanitarian intervention/assistance in any conflict. War is like a fire. These acts just add in fuel and oxygen
Check out this quote: "Many of the states now being consumed byโฆ" - "The Future ofโฆ" by Lawrence Freedman a.co/ggbpddV
Western humanitarian intervention is also a form of colonialism
Check out this quote: "But over time, the excuse that โthis is whatโฆ" - "The Future ofโฆ" by Lawrence Freedman a.co/ffytR61
An unrealistic expectation that militaries, in their PR driven attempt to display competence, neglecte to correct correct.
Check out this quote: "THE NEW TECHNOLOGIES THAT INFORMED THEโฆ" - "The Future ofโฆ" by Lawrence Freedman a.co/dcQ0bA9
Wars that might have never existed anywhere outside our fantasies
This prediction was rather accurate. NCF enabled a more *efficient* use of *Fires*. Integrating the rest of the military enterprise into this is still an open challenge.
"The pinpoint of targets by land-based,โฆ" - "The Future ofโฆ" by Lawrence Freedman a.co/8NXsm74
Check out this quote: "North Korea and Iraq appeared as likelyโฆ" - "The Future ofโฆ" by Lawrence Freedman a.co/6wzAKrr
The difference between defense planning scenarios/assessments and fiction can be thin - and it's not because fiction is well grounded.
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Check out this quote: "Unsurprisingly, a peace was more likely toโฆ" - "The Future ofโฆ" by Lawrence Freedman a.co/dcAFAYh
"Unsurprisingly"...
ื ืืื ืืืืืช ืืื ืฉื ืืืื: ืืืืืขืื ืืขืืื "ืืืชืจืืืช ืขืื ืฉืืืข, ืืืื ืขืื ืืืืฉ".
ื ืืื ืืืืืช ืืืืชื ืฉื ืืืื (ืกืืฃ ืืืกืืื): ืคืืชืืื ืืช ืืืืฉื/ืคืืืืกืืืืฉื ืืืืืืื ืื ืืืฆืืื.
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All my other neatpicks not withstanding, a very good article overall, kudos to the author for actually talking "brass tacks" where many others just gloss over things such as time, space and physics in general.
End.
@WarOnTheRocks
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The real question is how does this works in places not covered either by acronyms such as MAD or NATO. Right now, Ukraine is just such a place.
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So, to sum it up - fait accompli against a NATO member is bust not because of Russian logistics, but because it hinges on the *political willingness* of other states - some with nuclear weapons - to put their kids where their mouth is. The Russians know this.
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And the Russians know this. That is why they build their military force as they do.
In fact, it seems that right now the ones that plan for a short war are the Americans (as they have since 1st Gulf). This never ends well.
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This was true for the Romans and the French and the Germans as much as it is true now.
This is a corollary to the idiocy of trying to win the first fight - a staple of post Cold War American strategic thought. We isn't a 90 minutes Hollywood flick.
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Onward: What the author is saying, underneath it all, that the concept of forward, shallow, defense is ludicrous. This is not new. It has been so basically forever. If on has strategic depth, one should pull in the opponent to extend his supply line.
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