S Sebag Montefiore

2 weeks since the election and with a new Knesset sworn-in, we’re still no clearer on when Israel is going to have a new government and what shape it will be. But actually, quite a lot has happened, some of it quite encouraging. 1. Netanyahu’s blatant campaign to disqualify the Arab vote and the election result has fizzled out. In the process his appointee as Shin Bet Chief has been revealed as farcically out of his depth (which is a mixed blessing). 2. The IDF General Staff managed to fend off Netanyahu’s attempts to provoke another war with Iran, long enough for the midterm results and Trump, to put an end to such ideas, at least for a few more weeks. 3. The Netanyahu camp is beginning to fray, with his Haredi allies UTJ formally breaking with him and refusing to endorse any candidate for PM. I’m not sure it’s going to last and I doubt they will be part of an Eisenkot government, but it’s potentially a change in the political landscape. 4. Lieberman is being Lieberman. Inscrutable, cynical and maddeningly impossible to predict. Is he really trying to form a new alliance with the Haredim? Is he preparing the ground for another move? If so in which direction? No surprise there, but it’s frustrating nonetheless. 5. Eisenkot so far hasn’t made any beginners mistakes and seems to be handling the difficult situation well. He hasn’t tied himself down to any position he will have trouble abandoning and gives every impression of being resolutely committed to replacing Netanyahu, so far at least not falling into Bibi’s “unity” trap. 6. Netanyahu is losing his cool very visibly and wasn’t even seen in public for nearly two weeks since election night, until the Knesset inauguration today, where he went ahead and ruined his own “unity” pitch in a hysterical speech. 7. Significant parts of the “Eisenkot camp” (not just Lieberman) still have trouble contemplating a government including, or with the support of the Arab parties. But the entire opposition, all 67 MKs, today signed letters calling for an immediate vote on a new Knesset speaker. Looks like they can work together on some things. Who knows where that may lead. The bottom line remains. It takes a while to form a government in Israel. It took 80 days after the 2021 election and 60 days in 2022. We’re just 14 days in, so savlanut.