Partner at @precisionstrat. Fmr Deputy Campaign Manager for Obama 2012, Red Sox & Bruce Springsteen fan, proud Kennedy alum and, best of all, mom of Declan.
Washington, DC
Joined February 2010
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Stephanie Cutter retweeted
Yes, a bet and a trade often look similar.
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable important public benefits.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
"Prediction markets reflect local knowledge of elections offered up not just by the politically knowledgeable and interested, but those willing to back their knowledge and viewpoints with their own money. Opinions are cheap, while knowledge backed by money is expensive. From money, crucial market signals emerge. Gambling this is not," writes @johntamny in @Forbes: forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2…
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
Turns out Danny is onto something: Kalshi weather markets are more accurate than the top weather forecasts arxiv.org/abs/2609.23969
Open markets incentivize people to do extra research
This is 100% true. If you know me, you've probably heard me complain about the early hours, the constant travel, the cost & pressure of my son's AAA hockey. You also know watching him play is one of the greatest joy of my life. I dread the day when I'm watching his "last" game..in hockey, baseball, or football.
"I’ve never played a single game of baseball. Not once. Never even threw, or caught, a baseball until I was in college. I have no personal connection to the game....For me, the joy of baseball has been walking with my little boy as he grew."
lnk.thebulwark.com/4z1DL0V
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
When a bag of candy feels like a splurge, something’s off in your economy.
However midterms shake out, leaders on both sides will have to answer for how we cut these creeping costs. Luckily, our org has more than a few suggestions.
The scariest thing Americans face this Halloween won’t be a haunted house, but the price tags in the candy aisle.
🚨NEW: We and @TCFdotorg found Halloween candy prices are up 15.3% – a staggering 4x overall inflation.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
Prediction markets are already trading at record scale. The only question left is who manages them.
A single federal standard keeps this activity onshore, transparent, and accountable, instead of a scattered mix of state fights.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
Tarek and Luana still have much to learn.
But amongst all the noise, they keep their heads down, carry a big chip on their shoulder, and work harder than they've worked on day 1. They also consistently choose to do the right thing, even if the world misunderstands it at first.
They are unwavering in their belief in prediction markets. The numbers are a lagging indicator. Their product velocity is the leading indicator.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
"Freedom of the press is not optional." nitter.gq/CNNPR/status/211035535…
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
So... Do you see the boy on a scooter?
That was a 16 year old son of my mother's nurse.
Nothing left of him.
That was this woman's only child.
I don't think I have much else to say.
Russians killed him and ripped this woman's heart out.
Trump assists Russia in this.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
Right after Trump declared that Russia agreed to ceasefire they did this to Kharkiv.
See that kid riding scooter? He was 16. Nothing left of him. He was his mother's only child.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
"I wouldn't look at it as trying to make extra money, but instead using Kalshi like a layer of protection for the business."
Potentially the savviest construction company in Alabama, Martin Dindlebeck and his brother have been successfully hedging oil prices for Martin's Maintenance Services.
When WTI oil increases, Martin pays more for gas and materials. This year, given the elevated oil prices, they've been put in a more difficult position.
In August, Martin started hedging against high prices by placing $150 trades saying that WTI oil will rise above $100/barrel before October.
Yesterday WTI surged over $100/barrel. Martin's trades doubled in value.
He says "the extra cash means I can keep my guys working and paid, cover overhead, and make up for days we can't work."
Given rain is also a variable for him and other local businesses, we're now setting up weather markets in Alabama so that they can begin hedging against it.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
We’re proud to announce our partnership with @usblackchambers to help more businesses nationwide protect their bottom line!
Bad weather, economic swings, a local team’s playoff run. Events like these can make or break a month. Now business owners can learn how to protect their income when things outside their control go wrong.
Read more: businesswire.com/news/home/2…
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
Navore is a small produce distributor that buys from family farms. Their whole business depends on good harvests.
Heat waves are their biggest threat.
When a stretch of extreme heat dries up the fields, the farmers lose their harvests, and Navore loses their revenue.
So Caroline, who founded Navore, came to us and asked if we could build markets around this exact risk. We listed them, and now she hedges every week. When the heat waves come, the trade payouts soften the hit.
Here's the part we love. She doesn't keep all of it. Some of what she wins goes straight back to the farmers who lost the crop.
Small businesses have been carrying weather risk alone forever. They shouldn't have to.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
In a sea of so many try-hards, reading this @people profile abt my amazing friend @JenGriffinFNC is a reminder that true, authentic, hardworking badasses exist. So proud to know her. Trust me, you want to read the whole thing …
people.com/jennifer-griffin-…
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
Pollsters and pundits have incentives to protect their power, win their peers’ approval, minimize criticism
Prediction markets reward everyday people for being right
That’s why markets beat polls and pundits, and why people are turning to them to understand what’s happening
Are prediction markets biased by white men? Republicans? Young people?
Dartmouth professor Eric Zitzewitz analyzed 145 years of election prediction market data, spanning multiple exchanges and countries. His findings:
• No systematic evidence of political bias across different eras, countries, and offices.
• No systematic evidence of pricing bias based on candidates’ race, gender, or age in the recent elections studied.
• Traders weren’t always representative of the voting population, yet that didn’t translate into systematic bias in election forecasts.
The paper points to a powerful mechanism: people who spot a mispriced outcome have a financial incentive to correct it. Even if some participants trade on personal preferences, informed traders keep prices grounded in reality.
Open competition incentivizes research, challenges consensus, and gives the best ideas a chance to surface. People are rewarded for being right, regardless of their background or preferences.
The paper does find some pricing biases, including slight overpricing of longshots and underpricing of favorites. Its central finding on election markets remains: no systematic evidence of political or demographic bias.
In an increasingly polarized world, these markets give us something valuable: an impartial source of information shaped by people with an incentive to get it right.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
Are prediction markets biased by white men? Republicans? Young people?
Dartmouth professor Eric Zitzewitz analyzed 145 years of election prediction market data, spanning multiple exchanges and countries. His findings:
• No systematic evidence of political bias across different eras, countries, and offices.
• No systematic evidence of pricing bias based on candidates’ race, gender, or age in the recent elections studied.
• Traders weren’t always representative of the voting population, yet that didn’t translate into systematic bias in election forecasts.
The paper points to a powerful mechanism: people who spot a mispriced outcome have a financial incentive to correct it. Even if some participants trade on personal preferences, informed traders keep prices grounded in reality.
Open competition incentivizes research, challenges consensus, and gives the best ideas a chance to surface. People are rewarded for being right, regardless of their background or preferences.
The paper does find some pricing biases, including slight overpricing of longshots and underpricing of favorites. Its central finding on election markets remains: no systematic evidence of political or demographic bias.
In an increasingly polarized world, these markets give us something valuable: an impartial source of information shaped by people with an incentive to get it right.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
Prediction markets have a few unique qualities that make them valuable for tracking elections:
• They incentivize accuracy - people are rewarded primarily for being right (not eyeballs, power, etc)
• They're peer to peer - people set the odds, not a gatekeeper
• They're transparent - you can see the order book, the history, etc
• They move in real time - odds update as soon as new information comes in
That's why so many people and news outlets like CBS look to them during the midterms.
Stephanie Cutter retweeted
We couldn't agree more. Scams are a multibillion dollar problem that needs a real fix. And Congress can't afford to ignore it.
77% of older Americans reported at least one scam attempt in the past year, and $148.2B was lost to online scams in 2025. That's not a personal failing, it's a platform problem. United to Stop Online Scams is pushing for real accountability and regulation, not just more warnings.
Join us TOMORROW: unitedtostoponlinescams.org/
My eyes were wet from start to finish. I thought of being little in a big world & watching my son's first tries at this mad game. ESPN's Open to the NHL season is beautiful. I didn't expect to cry today-this is stunning. There's nothing like this sport. We at ESPN love the sport as you do. ❤️ Enjoy.