Professor of Applied Economics @JohnsHopkins | Senior Contributing Columnist @Fortune | FX & Commodity Trader | Reagan White House | Views are my own
Baltimore & Paris
Joined October 2012
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My mention in the @FT on the post-COVID surge in the money supply:
"Prominent monetarists Tim Congdon and Steve Hanke noticed this and correctly predicted inflation trouble."
THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY.
ft.com/content/a7de51d1-f4bc…
ARMENIA = ALWAYS AN UNSTABLE EQUILIBRIUM, AT BEST.
nitter.gq/clashreport/status/211…
My take in an interview with @JanetOnTheMoney on @SiriusXM 132 on why VENEZUELA IS IN THE TANK:
"The Chavistas and Delcy Rodríguez have been an economic wrecking ball for Venezuela. Venezuela is FED UP."
TRUMP'S BETTING ON THE WRONG HORSE IN CARACAS.
FREE IMRAN KHAN, IMMEDIATELY.
nitter.gq/DailyMail/status/21156…
Imran Khan's son says no one has heard from imprisoned cricket legend for months - and that fears are growing trib.al/AVBEDNZ
The FT warns that money supply signals are “vague and noisy.” Not in 2020. U.S. money supply grew faster than in the 1970s, peaking at 26.9%/yr in Feb. 2021.
Inflation followed, just as Prof. Tim Congdon and I predicted.
THE SIGNAL WAS LOUD AND CLEAR.
#EthiopiaWatch🇪🇹: While PM Abiy wages war in Tigray, Ethiopia ranks a TERRIBLE 139th of 143 countries for protecting the right to life and security of dissidents in the newly released @TheWJP 2026 RULE OF LAW INDEX.
My take in an interview with @JanetOnTheMoney on @SiriusXM 132 on AI MANIA:
"Huge credit expansion and increases in asset prices spell DOOM for AI. This deadly cocktail will likely result in a MAJOR FINANCIAL CRISIS."
AI = LOTS OF SPENDING = LOTS OF HYPE.
Germans are FED UP with RUSSOPHOBE MERZ and his coalition government.
MERZ’S APPROVAL RATING = IN THE TANK = 13%.
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Thanks to US-led regime change operations in 2011, Libya is a failed state.
Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 33.0%/yr.
LIBYA’S ECONOMY = IN THE TANK.
🤖 Made with AI
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Pres. Erdoğan = CENSORSHIP
Turkey ranks an ABYSMAL 163rd out of 180 countries in @RSFinter’s 2026 World Press Freedom Index.
South Korea’s GDP per capita outpaces Japan’s by a COUNTRY MILE.
Between 2008 and 2025, South Korea's labor productivity has grown by 1.53%/yr, while Japan’s productivity has flatlined at 0.03%/yr.
ISRAEL CONTINUES TO TERRORIZE PALESTINIANS.
Today, Israeli forces DECIMATED a home in the West Bank.
IF IT ISN'T THE ISRAELI SETTLERS, IT IS THE IDF.
#EthiopiaWatch🇪🇹: Ethiopia's rank for protection from armed conflict is tied with Sudan and Ukraine for 129th of 143 countries in the newly released @TheWJP 2026 Rule of Law Index.
The 2 most populous nations in the world, China and India, have one thing in common. They are both growing like gangbusters.
NO WONDER THERE'S A PIVOT TOWARDS ASIA.
USDA admitted a processing error in its September corn report. It used the wrong acreage weights for Kansas and Nebraska. This oversight led to an UNDERESTIMATE of US corn production by a WHOPPING 28.4 MILLION bushels.
THIS HAS THE SMELL OF GOVERNMENT INCOMPETENCE.
My take in an interview with @JanetOnTheMoney on @SiriusXM 132 on DOLLARIZATION IN VENEZUELA:
"Venezuelans have made it clear that it is time to mothball the bolívar and replace it with KING DOLLAR."
IT IS TIME FOR DELCY RODRÍGUEZ, THE ANTI-DOLLARIZER, TO TAKE THE EXIT DOOR AND MAKE WAY FOR MARÍA CORINA MACHADO.
MORE EVIDENCE THAT A COMMODITY PRICE SUPER CYCLE IS IN GEAR.
nitter.gq/unusual_whales/status/…
U.S. steel prices just hit their highest level in more than four years, per Bloomberg.
Benchmark hot-rolled coil has jumped 52% over the past year to $1,255 a ton, a level last seen in May 2022.
The reason: Trump’s tariffs are squeezing foreign supply. Steel imports fell 14% in the first nine months of 2026.
SEC. OF WAR HEGSETH'S DEPARTMENT OF WAR IS AT IT AGAIN.
Last night, the US military struck another alleged drug boat in the Eastern Pacific.
5 PEOPLE WERE KILLED.
#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea's inflation at a CRUSHING 95.9%/yr. That’s the 4TH HIGHEST IN THE WORLD.
This is one of the most unreported inflation stories in the world.
The mainstream media REMAINS OUT TO LUNCH.
🤖 Made with AI
MORE UKRAINIAN STRIKES ON RUSSIA = MORE RUSSIAN COUNTER ATTACKS = MORE UKRAINIAN DESTRUCTION.
nitter.gq/MarioNawfal/status/211…
🇺🇦 Kyiv’s city center went dark tonight
Russian strikes have damaged so much of Ukraine’s power system that there isn’t enough electricity to go around, so power gets cut in planned turns.
People there check their blackout schedule every day.
Winter hasn’t even started, and the lights are already going out.
Writer: Daniyal