Founder @Stateofblocks Prev @delphi_digital Going all in every time is the mathematically optimal strategy
Joined April 2018
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Going full time on @stateofblocks and the discord which means my time at Delphi has wrapped 🫡
big thanks to the Delphi folks - some of the best minds in the space and my work is sharper for it
been building toward this for awhile now & excited to go all in. plenty more coming
chatting state of the market w the folks from @MCGlive, tune in
Please note today on MCG we will be starting with @that1618guy at 12pm EST to give ourselves more time to talk markets, tickers and ideas.
@ChillTRD and @DineroDom0 will be hosting.
State of the Market, week 45 (nov 2 open)
BTC → unchanged, still leans adding risk, low conviction (6 wks). CPS firming 0.15 → 0.17, still far from 0.57
Alts → still trending but cooling fast, breadth 75% → 61%, 1pt above the 60% line (12 crossed down, 0 up)
Trenches → still frothy, draining further (grift 1.48 → 1.10)
watching this week:
midterms tue + ISM services wed + NFP fri. messy election night or hot payrolls could tip $BTC to de-risk and push alts under 60%
Looking forward to chatting w the goats
Tomorrow on MCG
@stateofblocks w/@that1618guy
📅Monday, 2nd November
🕛12:30PM EST
📍Tune in here
Stream powered by @fomo and @MetaDAOProject
$BTC Nov after Oct in midterm years (tiny sample):
2014: Oct −13% → Nov +12% | Q4 −17%
2018: Oct −4% → Nov −37% | Q4 −44%
2022: Oct +6% → Nov −16% | Q4 −15%
2026 Oct closed −7.5%
Q4 red all 3 modern midterms. n=3 tho, cycle & black swans (FTX '22) matter more imo
+1 for agentic credit interoperability
$priors team is showing us live how infra for a new protocol is built piece by piece.
adoption / usage to scale next
priors now runs inside the agent frameworks people build with 🌿
an agent on hermes agent by @NousResearch, agentkit by @CoinbaseDev or @elizaOS can check a seller's record before it pays, borrow the gap in usdg from its priors line when its wallet runs short, pay over x402, and repay when its income comes in. we ran all three end to end on Robinhood Chain mainnet
agentkit and elizaos install from npm today, and our pull requests are open with nous and coinbase
next we want every runtime checking the same record before money moves, so an agent that repays carries its history into any framework it runs on 👇
@RobinhoodCrypto @vladtenev
$INTC down -45% in just a few weeks lol
welcome tradfi bros to the altcoin trenches, we eat vol for breakfast on the daily
$BTC analysis, not from a price perspective but from a game theory market participant behavioral pov
this is my BTC game theory model at work 👇🏼
$BTC participants still arent as aligned on the long term view, but conditions are conducive for cooperative behavior to emerge (buy low now, sell high later)
we are currently still in a Fragile Cooperation regime, which also explains the lackluster price action we have been seeing these past few weeks of chop
as long as CPS (Composite Patience Score; measures the eagerness of participants to cooperate) stays low, fragility remains. however, the longer that BTC stays in this regime without breaking, the higher likelihood that cooperative behavior will take hold
more on this via the BTC Game Theory model live on site
$ENA came in fully for the retest to the 1D 100ema and the reaction from that level has been decent so far
imo once the market picks back up again ENA will be one of the faster horses out the gate
Bottom vibes
- Binance comms explain it was a compromised laptop and not some existential ai threat
- Users will likely be made whole
- Real impact will be mitigated by like 50% or so
- BTC is still 78k after short-led OI ramp drove this thing down a whopping 5% from open
Am I missing something or is this not clearly bottom fuel?
so $HYPE had:
> partnership with ICE
> druck's epic one tweet backing
> elon's RT of druck's epic tweet calling it "interesting"
> binance CEX hack pushing folks to self custody
i mean... talk about tailwinds lol
We got the $BTC retest to the 21ema on the weekly
atm still within acceptable pullback territory for a higher low as outlined in my post below from 2+ weeks ago
how price reacts here at this level is important going forward regarding the strength / demand from bulls
my base case for $BTC rn is that we're early innings H1 2023
fresh 9/21 cross w closures above the 55, now coming back for the retest
obv can slide a little more to retest the 21 + more market chop, but the trend is a grind up and to the right b4 the eventual vol expansion
