Founder and CEO @SearchPilot, founded @distilled (acquired by @Brainlabs) Interest in basketball, whisky, cooking, auction theory Views may not be orgs'

Somewhere rainy
Joined March 2007
I am very interested in @randfish's recent research into the growth of LLMs, their impact on people's search habits, and their impact on Google. My summary: 1. Google is still growing, not shrinking as some would have you believe 2. Not everything people do on LLM-based chat platforms are "searches" 3. Even if you are fixated on AI-powered discovery, Google is the biggest for *that* too This is not to say we should ignore the growth of the others, or get complacent, and in fact I think there's a lot of scope to test the impact of our activities on other LLM recommendations, but we should keep things in perspective. It reminds me a lot of the growth of social media circa 2007. It was clearly a coming revolution, and there was noise about it being catastrophic for search because people were making the argument that users would prefer to ask their friends where to eat rather than searching for restaurants. It turned out, of course, that they did both.
NEW Research: sparktoro.com/blog/new-resea… If we include ChatGPT, what is Google's *REAL* market share of search? After years of speculation, we finally have enough reliable data to build high quality numbers for both.
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Finding that every time I read a take on “ant” (meaning anthropic) I read “Ant” (as in Anthony Edwards 🏀)
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🤣 me and the AI have something in common
pro-tip: don't mention the recent AI math results to Opus 5.5 if you want it to prioritize something other than downloading those results and looking at them
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Big deal imo
Some big personal news: I'm moving to join Works in Progress as executive editor, starting next month. I have been hoping for an opportunity to work with @bswud and @s8mb for more than a decade, and I'm incredibly excited to finally have one. WIP is expanding on every front right now. We'll soon begin coverage of business and finance, as well as putting out more reported features. To that end, we'll be hiring more writers and reporters in the year to come. I'm planning to remain based in the US to help build out our presence here. The print edition of WIP has existed for less than 12 months, but sometime in the next week or so we will reach our 10,000th paying print subscriber. It's a group that now includes people who've been at the highest echelons of government and who run the world's biggest public companies. We’re already on track to 3x that number next year. We'll be in store at Barnes & Noble, Hudson News and independent newsagents next week too. I think WIP is providing something that people are craving from physical media right now: fewer, extremely well-crafted pieces in a beautifully designed form. Issues now feature an amazing group of columnists, including Tyler Cowen, Dan Wang and Stephen Kotkin. Each edition is better than the last. You'll see us in more and more places next year too. In January, our new weekly documentary films will launch on YouTube. We're expanding into the events space, with a new series in North America. The sky is the limit from here on out.
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Deep dives coming soon! I’m just impatient to start shouting that it’s possible…
This is one of the most interesting experiments on AI visibility I’ve seen because a control group is always missing from the data set, and necessary to give performance context Will, give us a deep dive!
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Google Search Console has AI visibility data! We have been going through a very painstaking and manual process of gathering and analysing that data for a number of our tests where there was a strong AI visibility hypothesis. Punchline: we're detecting AI visibility impacts with statistical confidence for the first time. Ever since we rolled out experiments that focused on AI clicks the top question we've been asked is "what about visibility?". Well... One problem with most AI visibility tracking is that there is no way to tell whether the numbers are changing because of things you did, or just because of <gestures wildly>. Look at the purple line in this chart - growing both before and after the website change (dotted line) - it's only by running a controlled test where a control group is unchanged (producing the pink forecast line) that we can see that there is causality. The change we made helped! The purple bar shows the uncertainty but also the statistical confidence with credible interval. This is a big deal!
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Best station in the world
It's also amazing how well connected to public transport you are, arriving in the UK on the Eurostar: - St Pancras - Kings Cross - Piccadilly Line - Circle Line - Hammersmith & City - Metropolitan - District - Victoria - Northern - Thameslink - trains from LNER, Lumo, Great Northern, Grand Central, Hull Trains Every city on the GB rail network can be reached in 2 or fewer changes.
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Will Critchlow retweeted
It's also amazing how well connected to public transport you are, arriving in the UK on the Eurostar: - St Pancras - Kings Cross - Piccadilly Line - Circle Line - Hammersmith & City - Metropolitan - District - Victoria - Northern - Thameslink - trains from LNER, Lumo, Great Northern, Grand Central, Hull Trains Every city on the GB rail network can be reached in 2 or fewer changes.
Arriving into St Pancras does make you a bit proud. Eurostar train to the underground in about 5 minutes and unlike arriving into many airports the elegant building, bustle of the station and attractive public realm must give a great first impression of Britain.
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I'm not exaggerating when I say that this conversation with @retailgeek had more moments of shock and surprise for me than any other interview I've recorded. Not least when you see my jaw drop as Jason tells the story of being stuck in Minneapolis with Jeff Bezos on 9/11. youtube.com/watch?v=MhN1qQg_…
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Podcast listeners - we just released a new episode on the feed - this time with Christine Ullmann of John Lewis talking about how premium brands get found in AI search. Don't miss out - The Business Class Lounge wherever you get your podcasts.
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Kelly Wortham very kindly invited me to speak to the Test & Learn Community about AI search and discovery. Her crew are extremely experienced experimentation experts when it comes to other channels - and particularly around conversion rate optimisation, UX, and product testing. My job was to bring the perspective about how you can experiment with modern search and discovery. I thought others might be interested in what I put together - here are my slides and the recording is on their YouTube channel:
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Enjoyed recording in person at TYX studios today with @RetailEconomics - watch out for this one coming soon!
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Will Critchlow retweeted
I figured out how ESPN calculates fantasy football win percentage, it’s bad! ESPN made a stats 101 error when calculating their win percentage which leads to horribly miscalibrated numbers. (🧵 thread)
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I’m pleased to see more links in AI responses. Links are great. More links please.
One of the areas we’ve been pushing on in Search is making it easy for you to find relevant sites, first-hand perspectives, and content from sources you love. And we’re seeing that this work is resonating - the number of people who’ve used Preferred Sources to select sites they want to hear has grown by 7x since the beginning of the year. Today we’re sharing some new and upcoming updates to AI Overviews and AI Mode to help you find links to click out and dive deeper: ➕ More inline links embedded directly in the response ➕ A new section at the top of a response that prominently highlights the 1-2 links you need to complete a specific task or find exact info ➕ News carousels available globally for timely topics — which also highlight your Preferred Sources (see image below) ➕ Dive Deeper section that features a more clickable design with image thumbnails ➕ Clickable publisher and creator names in video results to see more of their work We’ve also continued to expand and evolve our commercial partnerships with news publishers, and now over 400 publications worldwide are part of our News AI pilot licensing program where we pay for the delivery and use of enhanced content to develop new AI features. We’re committed to iterating and improving as we learn and hear feedback, so give these new features in Search a try and let me know what you think!
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