Michaël van de Poppe

Liquidity is stuck. Rates are higher. Most people read that as the end of the #crypto cycle. @RaoulGMI reads it completely differently: "This is not a cycle. This is a mid-cycle correction. And it's like an elongated version of what happened in 2020." His reasoning: the last rally never even got to one standard deviation overbought versus the trend, and we never had a real down cycle in liquidity. It just went flat for a while. Raoul is the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and @RealVision, and his new book The Everything Code is out now. Third time on the show, first time in person, recorded live in Singapore. In his view the adoption story is already obvious: stablecoins, tokenization, AI agents. What's missing is fuel: "So all you need is the kindling. You need to throw the gasoline on the fire and the gasoline always and every time is liquidity." Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show. We cover: - Why liquidity is stuck, and why higher rates are not bearish this time - The deflationary nuclear bomb: what AI does to wages, advice and the value of money - How Raoul rebuilt his entire business with AI without writing a line of code - AI agents, liability, and why identity is the layer everyone overlooks - #Bitcoin oversold versus Nasdaq, and the case for a mid-cycle correction - Which Layer 1s win, and how to value a network with the "lights off" test - How Raoul invests himself: two trades this year Timestamps: 00:50 - Third Time, Live In Singapore 04:22 - Why Liquidity Is Stuck 05:49 - Why Higher Rates Are Not Bearish 11:09 - Escaping The Rat Race 18:42 - The Deflationary Nuclear Bomb 24:48 - Building Everything With AI 32:17 - AI Agents, Liability And Risk 42:46 - Is Crypto Breaking Out? 45:57 - A Mid-Cycle Correction 51:37 - What Everyone Overlooks: Identity 54:36 - Which Layer 1s Win 1:01:12 - How Raoul Invests

Sure, we could see a sweep of the low of #Bitcoin again. However, what I've learned is that you accumulate when nobody is interested. That's now.

I'm rotating assets in my #Altcoin portfolio to position them for the upcoming run. Big update coming in the next 24 hours. Subscribe here: nitter.gq/CryptoMichNL/creator-s…

I'm bullish on DeFi, and I want to bet more on DeFi protocols. I've been talking about $ETHFI before, and I think this week's data shows the low is in or almost in. Swept the low from August. Clearly in an uptrend, and very likely to continue upward from here. My next target is $1.13.

Congratulations, the most obvious area for #Bitcoin for longs has hit. All the lows have been swept. In short, this is the area to be bullish on the markets.

Yes, it's that time of year to be bullish on #Bitcoin (when isn't it?). Despite the recent market correction, it's clear institutions want to allocate more capital to this asset class. Use this opportunity to accumulate more.

Final day to vote for our fund in the Cashcow awards. A small gesture from me to you: I'm building a product in the fund industry that outperforms #Bitcoin. So far, in the first 15 months, we've succeeded with +40% against Bitcoin. The nomination has already made me incredibly proud. Vote here and receive a free ticket for the Beleggersfair: cashcow.nl/awards/

This is why #Bitcoin is the best AI Trade out there.

Everyone's arguing about inflation. Raoul Pal looked at the same data and sees the opposite coming, and his phrase for it stops you cold: "By 2030 to 2035, this is the most deflationary event in history. I call it a deflationary nuclear bomb. Because we don't even know what money is worth at that point." @raoulgmi reading of right now: "Wages aren't going up while we've got good economic growth. Hiring's not going up, and firing is not going anywhere... that's the first deflationary sign." So what's still inflating? Two things, both temporary in his read. The bottlenecks, electricity prices spiking because of the AI build-out, "that will all get cleared, because the game is so big that everybody will pile as much money into solving those bottlenecks as possible, as fast as possible. The next three years, that all goes away." And healthcare, driven by aging boomers. His kicker: "Now you are going to apply AI and robotics to that too." Follow the logic to the end. Labor stops pushing wages. A capex wave solves the bottlenecks. The last inflating sector gets automated. What's left pushing prices up? And the real question hiding inside his nuclear-bomb line isn't about prices at all. If technology makes everything cheaper at once, money itself stops being a stable ruler, in both directions. That's the world where the debasement response gets unleashed without the usual punishment, and scarce assets become the only fixed points left.

I expect $ETH to outperform #Bitcoin in the coming period. Unfortunately, there was a harsh correction yesterday, and that's likely to fade quickly when the indices get their momentum back. This range is the big range for $ETH. If this breaks above 0.03, we'll see a strong move and a surge across the board in #Altcoins. Big weeks are upon us.

#Altcoins are at the end of their correction. The first one is already breaking out: $ARB. It swept a little below the recent low against Bitcoin, then bounced quickly. The trend is clearly flipping into an uptrend, which is what we'd like to see. The next move will likely bring another 20-30% gain on $ARB.

The $75,000 level for #Bitcoin is still untapped. I wouldn't be surprised if we sweep that today before the US open, with a quick bounce up after that. Some #Altcoins are already showing strong strength, which is a positive sign for the markets.

Yesterday was the largest correction on the Nasdaq in a long period of time. Today, we're already bouncing back upwards. An ideal time to accumulate positions, and I think we're still in the final stage of the correction. Good bounce upwards after $NQ has taken all the lows that were ready to be taken. #Bitcoin didn't take the $75,000 area, but many #Altcoins have taken the lows. Heavily accumulating here as good times are upon us.

$WLFI is launching a new token buyback program. The strongest #Crypto assets over the past months have been: - $HYPE - $PUMP - $UNI What did these have in common? Exactly: a buyback program fueling demand for the token and driving a 25-300% gain. @worldlibertyfi has launched a strong buyback program, which should produce the same outcome. That means this is a great accumulation level, as additional demand will help push the price even higher; technically, a strong bullish divergence is already supporting a potential bottoming phase here. This has helped $BTC make a strong run, and several #Altcoins have, and I'm sure $WLFI will too.

It's a big day tomorrow. Nasdaq has seen one of the worst day in a long period. #Bitcoin has seen a less worse day than Nasdaq, only seen in March 2020. I expect Nasdaq to bottom tomorrow. The same for Bitcoin, potentially after sweeping $75,000. Volatility is high, this is the ultimate time to accumulate.

My thesis on #Bitcoin hasn't changed. Generally speaking, if you zoom out, we're back to yesterday's levels. If you were buying spot, you're slightly underwater. Is that bad? Nope, that's part of the game. The past 24 hours have been heavily influenced by leverage trading. I'm quite pleased to see that Trump has sold his Bitcoin. Finally. Now, <$75,000 remains the best, obvious spot for longs, and it coincides with Nasdaq's low, which has been targeted at 26,500. It might already be here. So essentially the story: accumulate. Nothing else.

I've been covering $NEAR for a long time now. The hysteria around this one peaked at $5+. Now it's fading, and we're getting into interesting areas for accumulation. The <$3.50 area is where I'd want to be bidding. The end of the correction remains near.