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Joined February 2017
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$ETH could be a better SoV than BTC or zcash:native:
- Native staking yield
- Privacy on the roadmap
- Potentially deflationary through fee burn
I hope Vitalik's pivot back to SoV doesn't come from a belief that Ethereum L1 will never generate enough fees to make ETH deflationary.
Remember that he recently pushed more on L1 scaling, with L2s focusing more on specific use cases
(specific example: celebratory post on Trueo migrating from Base to the L1)
Of course, scaling makes transactions cheaper too.
Demand needs to keep up and Ethereum community needs to work on it.
I like the SoV direction. It's a Smart-SoV:
To get loans on BTC and ZEC you either need wrappers or trust banks/CEXs.
ETH lets you native collateral and swap within one chain.
Expanding on why I believe "ETH as store of value (SoV)" makes much more sense to focus on than "ETH as fee-burning token".
Three primary reasons:
1. ETH as fee-burning token never was as strong as it seemed
2. Optimizing for ETH as fee-burning token would demand Ethereum and ETH function in ways that are very hard to make compatible with decentralization and capture resistance.
3. Meanwhile, optimizing for ETH as SoV is aligned with Ethereum focusing on its unique strengths (decentralization and CROPS)
EIP-1559 (including its burn) is fine and good, we should keep them. But we should not feel sad if fee burn is < 10% of breakeven indefinitely; the value of ETH comes from elsewhere.
The core idea: the big thing that people appreciate about Ethereum is decentralization and CROPS. The main pragmatic benefit that these things translate into is stability. SoV is the category where that is not an unneeded extra we merely put effort into for ideological reasons, but rather a pragmatic strength from the perspective of people putting in their assets. And in the era of AI disruption, stability will be highly valued.
$PONS & $STONK are down bad and you'd be tempted to buy the dip.
Yet launchpads are always short-lived, cyclical products that come and go.
Remember daos fun, Polkastarter, Avalaunch and many more.
Would't be surprised to see $PONS chart as $POLS here.
Most never come back.
Still, pump fun and MetaDAO are two that managed to do well.
If you still believe in Pons & Stonk, better to follow their fees/revenue and even if you miss the bottom, buy on returning adoption.
Terra's UST collapse ended up affecting innovation in decentralized stablecoins.
We need decentralized stablecoins more than ever.
I even believe that Ethereum Foundation or adjacent institution should launch one (or acquire Liquity)
Backed by $ETH alone - no other LST or anything.
It would help Ethereum to achieve Vitalik's vision for privacy, decentralization and security. Plus pump ETH price.
Agree that ETH is a store of value that can support and back the creation of money, but it is not money yet.
Overcollateralized ETH stables can help create tokenized dollar-pegged assets that are less volatile than SOVs are.
Check out what @LiquityProtocol does for example.
That's why permissionless perp DEXs have huge PMF.
People around the world want to trade assets they can't easily access because of where they live, broker restrictions etc.
Like going long Samsung / short SK Hynix not being possible.
Perp DEXes that offer these geolocked assets will do well.
The Death of KOL-as-a-VC is a fun one:
Just until recently KOLs were actively investing in private/seed sales at better terms than top VCs.
I used to get tons of invitations to join sales at lower valuations & shorter lockups.
That all dried out.
And KOLs who actively invested in seed are mostly rekt.
But I think believe projects should try to onboard ambassador/believer KOLs to help them grow.
But choose quality over quantity. One to three flag bearer KOLs will do you good.
On the flip side, an extractor KOL will damage reputation for good.
No surprise that Prediction markets are expanding into perps:
Even with the recent mid-terms, Polymarket trading volumes are basically flat over the year.
But while volumes are stable, active wallets, open interest and tx count are in decline.
---
Most of users are indeed speculators & gamblers as election volumes are minuscule compared to sports and crypto .
So perps are enticing to Polymarket as they can squeeze speculators even more.
Still, unfortunate as I wish they focused on making their prediction market a better product and leave perps to HL, Lighter, Variational etc.
P.s. I don't even bother to report Kalshi data as their washtrading volumes are off the charts right now.
End of Crime Season:
- Crime coins/extractooor KOLs get no bid
- Trump & His Cartel face responsibility for their scams
While
- OG devs who built for years get rewarded: $FLUID solana:KMNo3nJsBXfcpJTVhZcXLW7RmTwTt4GVFE7suUBo9sS $AAVE $UNI etc.
- Tradfi x crypto merges more ($HYPE $LIT $VAR + tokenized stocks)
- High rev tokens continue to outperform
But
- Privacy coins serve as hedge: $ZEC but also $ETH
