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Joined April 2022
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Data Suite 2.0 is here!
An NFL Data package on par with what the NFL teams use, but 1/1,000th the price
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Fantasy Points Data retweeted
I have some Advanced RB Data as well!
This chart outlines rushing volume + efficiency, receiving production, and SoS for the top-36 RBs by FPG (per @FantasyPtsData)
Here are a few things that stood out to me:
1. Josh Jacobs
I know the efficiency metrics are extremely alarming, but it's his first two games back and the Packers OL is awful
- He remains a firm hold/buy based on his goal line role and receiving usage
2. D'Andre Swift
One of my biggest sell-high candidates right now based on his TD-dependency
- He has 7 TDs over his last four games and is averaging 58.5 rushing YPG over that same span (RB19)
- His SoS schedule is brutal the rest of the way, and Monangai likely returns after their week 10 bye
3. Jaylen Warren
Warren has been the most effective and efficient rushers and receivers out of the backfield this season
- There is zero reason that Rico Dowdle should ever see more than 8-10 touches a game going forward
4. Braelon Allen
I can't stop talking about how impressive Allen has been in a bell cow role over the last 5 weeks
- He ranks top-3 in the majority of rushing efficiency and production metrics in that span
- I don't see any reason why this should not be a split backfield with Breece Hall returning this week (may the best back win the RB1a role)
5. Javonte Williams
One of the most plodding, inefficient, TD-dependent backs in the league
- Totally fine to hold for his semi-reliable production, but better used in a trade package to obtain an RB with true league-winning upside
Who wants some Advanced WR Data?
I have a chart organized by efficiency, volume, and separation metrics for the top 36 WRs by FPG (per @FantasyPtsData)
- I also added strength of schedule ranks just for fun
Here are some things that stood out to me:
1. Drake London
Truly one of the best trade targets at the moment because of his absurd efficiency and lack of TD production so far
- A few odd outlier games are really dragging his fantasy production metrics down
2. Tetairoa McMillan + Jalen Coker
I think that the party is completely over for the Panthers' passing attack ROS
Neither has been efficient; their schedule is brutal, and Bryce Young's dominance may have been yet another flash in the pan
3. Carnell Tate
I like what we've seen from the Titans offense recently, and I expect Tate to have a strong second half of the season after his bye week
- I also like his remaining SOS and how affordable right now to buy
4. Jameson Williams
With Sam LaPorta being punished and St. Brown underperforming for a significant stretch for the first time in his career, Williams has been running hot
- It's largely been due to his TD production and usage in the red zone, which keeps him a decent sell high candidate
5. Christian Watson
I worry a little about his matchup this week and the rib injury he is playing through, but he should not be this far behind Golden in target share
- I really like him him over Golden ROS and a WR that isn't too expensive right now (relative to his ceiling)
6. Nico Collins
The most perplexing player for me right now, because he has been underperforming in such an uncharacteristic way lately
- His playoff schedule is so juicy, I still lean toward him as a good buy low
7. Zay Flowers
Even though every Flowers owner knows the last two weeks should be completely tossed out, I don't know if they value him as highly as they once did
- I am back in on targetting him as a buy next week
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
This makes me even more depressed that Tyquan Thornton suffered a season ending injury in Week 4
- I genuinely think he was the truth and quite possibly the answer to some of Patrick Mahomes deep passing woes
Thornton had 11 receptions on the season, which included 4 of Mahomes' 7 completions 20+ yards downfield
- Mahomes has not had a single completion 20+ yards downfield since Thornton went down
In fact, Mahomes has the shortest aDOT on TD throws among all QBs this season (4.3 yards)
- 80.6% of his passing yardage on TD throws has come after the catch (by far the highest percentage in the league)
This might be why the Chiefs have shown interest in Brian Thomas Jr.
Metrics per @FantasyPtsData
Since Tyreek Hill left the Chiefs in 2022, Patrick Mahomes has fewer deep passing touchdowns than Will Levis
He's tied with backup QBs Aidan O'Connell and Mac Jones
@FantasyPtsData
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
MIN has the highest blitz rate in the NFL (74.2%)
(per @FantasyPtsData)
Khalil Shakir has COOKED when Josh Allen has been blitzed
No Blitz:
19% TPRR
1.37 YPRR
when Blitzed:
29% TPRR
3.63 YPRR
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
After studying the blitz-crazy Vikings defense all week, what stands out most is how effective their pass defense is on snaps they DON'T blitz.
The expectation of the blitz has offenses in a bind when it doesn't come. Minnesota comfortably leads the NFL in all of these categories when they don't blitz.
Data courtesy @FantasyPtsData. #Skol #BillsMafia
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
Josh Downs
Josh Downs is having a rather odd season, where he looked to be in full-on breakout mode over the first few weeks of the season (0.27 TPRR, 2.07 YPRR), but has since been really quiet (0.14 TPRR, 0.82 YPRR). However, he’s still a very good if not elite separator, and a lot of his recent matchups have not played to his strengths very much. This one against Dallas does, from how I see it.
For one, Dallas has been getting killed vs. the slot, where Downs runs over 70% of his routes. They’re allowing the 3rd most YPG in the NFL from the slot, and are 5th worst in EPA/target per @FantasyPtsData.
Dallas also has been running a bunch of single-high (7th highest rate) and man coverage (6th highest rate over last month). Downs has been better against single-high, jumping from 0.18→0.24 TPRR and 1.25→1.70 YPRR. Against man, he crushes, up to an elite 0.31 TPRR and 2.48 YPRR.
I don’t generally buy narratives, but this is likely Josh Downs’ last game as a Colt. Given that, and that the Colts have already more or less given up on the season, they’ll likely want to maximize his trade value. I think that could allow for a “showcase” game and more volume like we saw in the beginning of the season, especially given the matchup also sets up well for efficiency from Downs (and he’s generally a target-earning WR as is).
The Play: Over 41.5 rec yards, alt 15+ 1Q rec yards (+250) and 6+ receptions (+260)
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
In the last 4 weeks - NOBODY has given up more yards to the TE position than the Patriots.
START TUCKER KRAFT 🔥
(@FantasyPtsData)
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
QB comparison: 2023-2026 season
I'm not here to debate real-life QB play, but I think it's fair to question the gap between Mahomes and Goff/Dak from a dynasty standpoint.
@FantasyPtsData
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
Saints rank 2nd in rate of single-high coverage (65%)
Fantasy points per route vs. single-high this season
Fannin: 0.51
Concepcion: 0.36
Boston: 0.12
vs. two-high
Boston: 0.57
Fannin: 0.27
Concepcion: 0.24
per @FantasyPtsData
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
In their last 4 games - the Minnesota Vikings are allowing:
116.5 Passing Yards/game
0.25 Passing TDs/game
They face Josh Allen on MNF.
(@FantasyPtsData)
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
Which QBs are missing their targets most often?
Data: @FantasyPtsData, min. 120 attempts
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
How often QBs throw behind the line of scrimmage and their passer rating on those throws
Data: @FantasyPtsData, min. 80 attempts
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
Who wants some Advanced WR Data?
I have a chart organized by efficiency, volume, and separation metrics for the top 36 WRs by FPG (per @FantasyPtsData)
- I also added strength of schedule ranks just for fun
Here are some things that stood out to me:
1. Drake London
Truly one of the best trade targets at the moment because of his absurd efficiency and lack of TD production so far
- A few odd outlier games are really dragging his fantasy production metrics down
2. Tetairoa McMillan + Jalen Coker
I think that the party is completely over for the Panthers' passing attack ROS
Neither has been efficient; their schedule is brutal, and Bryce Young's dominance may have been yet another flash in the pan
3. Carnell Tate
I like what we've seen from the Titans offense recently, and I expect Tate to have a strong second half of the season after his bye week
- I also like his remaining SOS and how affordable right now to buy
4. Jameson Williams
With Sam LaPorta being punished and St. Brown underperforming for a significant stretch for the first time in his career, Williams has been running hot
- It's largely been due to his TD production and usage in the red zone, which keeps him a decent sell high candidate
5. Christian Watson
I worry a little about his matchup this week and the rib injury he is playing through, but he should not be this far behind Golden in target share
- I really like him him over Golden ROS and a WR that isn't too expensive right now (relative to his ceiling)
6. Nico Collins
The most perplexing player for me right now, because he has been underperforming in such an uncharacteristic way lately
- His playoff schedule is so juicy, I still lean toward him as a good buy low
7. Zay Flowers
Even though every Flowers owner knows the last two weeks should be completely tossed out, I don't know if they value him as highly as they once did
- I am back in on targetting him as a buy next week
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
QB Pressure-to-Sack Ratio through Week 8
Data: @FantasyPtsData, min. 120 dropbacks
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
Which QBs have the easiest job in the NFL, and who's being left to do it all alone?
Composite QB Supporting Cast Score:
• Pass protection
• Route running & receiver performance
• Non-QB rushing success
• DEF/ST support
Metrics from @FantasyPtsData
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
Is the QB elevating his supporting cast or the other way around?
Comparing how much help each QB gets with how much production he actually delivers.
@FantasyPtsData
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
Who's speeding things up, and who's slowing the game down?
Offensive Pace in neutral situations.
Data: @FantasyPtsData
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
Which QBs have no chance?
Average time to pressure (min. 120 dropbacks)
Data: @FantasyPtsData
Fantasy Points Data retweeted
What does the backfield split look like in New York now that Breece Hall is finally returning from injury? 50/50? 60/40? (In favor of whom?)
@FantasyPtsData
