
Hypurr#4368🐱https://nitter.gq/t.co/cFlU3njks3 15%boost https://nitter.gq/t.co/bbYkPc0mzp 用 #Binance 交易🔗 https://nitter.gq/t.co/NHehktZlYL
定投HYPE+重仓Variational
Joined February 2021
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这次ICE 已与Tradexyz 签署最终协议,计划在美国建设独立的交易与清算体系,支持多种资产的全时段永续合约交易。
其中,ICE 担任该美国市场的独家运营方,Tradexyz 为ICE 在美国落地该业务的独家合作方,而面向零售用户的分发则通过ICE 与OKX 的合资公司进行。
围绕着hyperliquid生态,各家的关系变得更复杂了。
ICE在投资OKX后疑似OTC了大量HYPE,之前币安通过投资千分之五的Circle间接持有了三千多个HYPE,通过trust wallet成为了前端分发的重要渠道,再加上circle(Coinbase系)作为稳定币服务商,Payward(海妖和xStocks)通过hip-3作为美国业务的合规前端,几大CEX因为hyperliquid的交集颇有点AI圈各家互相投资、签算力合同的感觉了。
An exciting step toward bringing perpetual futures into the regulated U.S. market.
Combining ICE’s institutional-grade market infrastructure, Trade[XYZ]’s onchain innovation, and OKX’s distribution and trading technology could help create a new generation of global, 24/7 financial markets.
Different technologies. Different strengths. One shared vision: making financial markets more open, efficient, and accessible.
Looking forward to building this together. 🚀
将Hyperliquid引入美国
trade[XYZ] launched its first market on Hyperliquid 381 days ago. Today, we are joining forces with ICE, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, to bring perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to U.S. regulated markets.
I don’t usually write long posts, but today merits reflection.
For years, builders across this industry have worked to show that open, onchain markets could support price discovery, manage risk, and withstand stress to the standards of traditional market infrastructure, all while staying open when and where those markets aren’t.
Our achievements stand on the shoulders of those builders. And today, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange has chosen to build upon the work of every developer, trader, market maker, and user who took a chance on us and our markets. We share this moment with all of you.
Markets are shaped by their participants. A new generation of investors trades from their phones, across asset classes, at any hour of any day. Until Hyperliquid, the right infrastructure for those markets didn’t exist.
Building these markets was hard. It took novel approaches to pricing, funding, and risk, refined with real capital at stake, in markets that don’t close. It also meant earning the trust of the people trading on them. We’re honored that the community recognized that effort and responded in kind.
That trust is what allowed us to grow our volumes to a ~$1 trillion annualized run rate in just over a year, to help pioneer new instruments like pre-IPO perps, and to earn the confidence of storied institutions like S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s why ICE has chosen trade[XYZ] as its exclusive partner to bring 24/7 perps to the U.S.
Shifts in technology have pushed markets toward greater transparency, better price discovery, and broader access: from the coffee house to the curb exchange, ticker tape to the telephone, the trading floor to digital exchanges.
ICE helped write that last chapter. In 1997, Jeff Sprecher bought a small power-trading technology business for $1. ICE launched as an electronic energy marketplace in 2000, helped digitize major commodity markets, and acquired the NYSE in 2013. It has grown exponentially because of this appetite for innovation. That’s the partner we wanted: a partner that looks forward and embraces progress.
Americans deserve access to the most innovative markets in the world, and the protections of U.S. regulation. With trade[XYZ] and ICE, subject to regulatory approvals, they’ll have both.
The difference isn’t just access. Perps don’t expire, so traders never have to roll positions, and liquidity concentrates in a single deep market for each asset. Cross-margining enhances capital efficiency by letting one pool of collateral back positions across stocks, commodities, and crypto. Underpinning it all are atomic clearing and settlement, real-time risk management that enables continuous markets, and universally applied rules that anyone can verify. This is the next chapter we’ll write together.
My responsibility, our responsibility, is to now build markets worthy of the confidence our partners and our users have placed in us. Our commitments will not waver: to fair and transparent markets, to diverse markets, to low costs of execution, and above all, to market integrity.
All of this in pursuit of one thing:
A universal exchange, open around the clock, coming to the United States.
We’re proud to have deployed more than 100 markets on trade[XYZ]. But measured against the opportunity ahead, we’ve barely started. There is an enormous universe of assets we haven’t reached, alongside things people want to trade that have no established market at all. Wherever there is demand to trade an asset, we want trade[XYZ] to be where its price is discovered.
Global stocks, commodities, bonds, pre-IPO companies, compute, new indices, digital assets, interest rates, equity baskets, volatility products, alt assets… Anything. Anytime. Anywhere.
Ultimately, everything you own should work with everything you trade. Picture a headline breaking on Saturday night. You should be able to post tokenized shares as collateral, hedge your portfolio with an index perp, add exposure to oil, and take a view on a company that has not yet gone public. All in one account, all on one risk engine, before any traditional market opens. trade[XYZ] and Hyperliquid were built for this.
I hope someone opens their first investment account years from now to find that trivial, and to wonder why their predecessors needed so many separate financial relationships. Getting there will take liquidity, reliability, trust, and prices people have reason to believe. It will take years. I’m prepared to spend them.
Finally, a few thank yous.
First to the XYZ team: For the tireless nights and for committing to this vision before it was obvious.
To Jeff Sprecher and ICE, with special thanks to Michael Blaugrund and Trabue Bland who championed us throughout: You’re a world-class, technology-embracing team that proves innovation and scale are in fact not at odds.
To Stan Druckenmiller: For your partnership and helping us turn the next page.
To Hyperliquid Labs: For being the best partners we could ask for. You set an impossible standard, one we continually strive to meet. @chameleon_jeff, @iliensinc, @xulian_hl
And most importantly, to our users: You traded these markets when no one thought it mattered.
Guess what? It did.
钱都花在建新的数据中心上了,热钱全部流向AI,实际上欧美因为现代化太早,当年的基建都落后太多了,非洲就不用说了还没开始呢,穷人还在挖树井储水。
全球基建其实都有很大机会,只不过是辛苦钱,大家更喜欢造比自己更聪明的智能体,脑机接口赛博永生,或者飞上宇宙的大生意。
梳理了一下西班牙火车追尾事故:
1/ 事情的起因是 LZB 系统(可以理解为计算机控制的自动安全系统)故障,LZB已经是大约40-50年前的系统了,问题一直很多,铁路系统也正在更换新一代系统,但还没完成。
当LZB故障时,受影响路段的车辆强制停车,并且转由Adif进行调度,也就是人工调度
2/ 在这个事件中,LZB发生了故障,受影响路段中的6辆火车停了下来。
其中包括最前面的Lryo,可以理解为私铁慢车,和后面的Renfe,可以理解为国铁快车
随后Adif通知了所有车辆按照正常速度行驶
这里Adif 犯了第一个错误,因为按照规定,在这种情况下要遵循目视规则,时速不能超过40km/小时,确保出现意外情况时能手动完成刹车
在Adif发出这个指令后,另一量Renfe 列车司机指出了他的错误,并按照目视规则以40km/h速度行驶
但Adif没有纠正指令,从录音看,事故 Renfe 车辆司机的回复略带疑问:(以正常速度?),但他仍然按照指令以超过100km/h的速度行驶,途中检测到了145km/h的数据
3/ 初始状态下,两车相距29km,从启动到撞击一共17分钟
首先Lryo收到重新启动指令的时候是不确定的,有可能Renfe启动以后他仍然没有收到Adif的指令
但从后来泄露的录音看,至少在离撞击还有5分钟的时候,Lryo向Adif报告了,自己无法启动
(PS:Lryo和Renfe是由Adif的两个不同工作人员引导)
尽管如此,这五分钟Adif没有通知renfe减速或者刹车。另外17分钟内,Adif是可以看到Renfe正在接近而Lryo保持静止
最终Renfe以100km/h以上的速度前进直至看到Lyro,但此时手动刹车已经无法避免撞击
总的来说就是
LZB故障 + Adif 严重失职 + Renfe列车违规操作叠加,导致了这场悲剧
R.I.P.
前两天挂了个offer准备再接第9只hypurr,当时地板200hype,因为以往我直接买都会或多或少的跌,就耐着性子挂offer,结果久违的涨价了,没接到,现在地板228hype了。
小图片就是这样,每当你想稳一手的时候就涨一点折磨你,这次算了不加了,8只也不少了,总共也就4600-270只,像我这种不做事的人买多了也不好。
实际上你能以20k的价格买到的也就9只了,总共挂出来的也就164只。小猫这种低流通硬背景的非共识资产,起飞真的是随时都有可能。
怪不得这么招人烦,这些小粉红真的给我气笑了,今天这帖子一发好家伙,反贼喷我可以理解,一些小粉红也喷我。
跟反贼还可以说道说道,无非就是迷失在西方叙事体系下的可怜虫。面对这些小粉红朴素且粗鲁的一套爱国连招,我都不知道说点啥。
这些人的智力压根理解不了汉字(还喜欢让别人不要用汉字),也没有长文本阅读能力,只能捕捉到关键词断章取义。
我说:“说只有中国人会这样敏感肌玻璃心搞文字狱的,是不知道Kanye反犹,JK罗琳倡导生理性别的时候发生的事吗?”……巴拉巴拉
我推测他们看到的:只有中国人会这样敏感肌玻璃心搞文字狱
然后动不动就是触发应激反应,别用中文,退出国籍套餐给你安排上。
要是看不懂别人的立场,那就把嘴闭上好吧,太给粉红丢人了,我这种高级红不屑与你们为伍,要是靠你们那社会主义是没指望了。
低级红就是高级黑这句话真的是对的,动不动就满口脏话,资本主义看到你们这文化素质水平都笑嘻了。
将hyperliquid引入美国
Payward, the parent company of Kraken, announced its intention to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer on HIP-3* markets. Payward will use Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer to deploy perpetual futures markets for US clients. Subject to regulatory approval, Bitnomial, Payward’s CFTC-regulated DCM and DCO, would act as the HIP-3* deployer: creating, owning, and administering the markets and clearing and settling the contracts. If approved, NinjaTrader Clearing, Payward’s CFTC-registered FCM, would carry client accounts.
HIP-3 will support optional deployer configuration for permissioned markets in a future network upgrade. This set of additional deployer functionality is collectively called HIP-3*. At its core, HIP-3* activation involves an onchain allowlist managed by the deployer or its sub-deployers. The functionality is strictly additive to HIP-3; its use is optional and up to the deployer. Existing markets remain unchanged. The initial release is available on testnet, where specifications are preliminary and subject to change based on feedback.
Hyperliquid is a neutral infrastructure layer with the goal of supporting large parts of the financial system. HIP-3* gives deployers additional functionality to operate deployments consistent with the requirements applicable to them. As with HIP-3, HIP-3* deployers are independent operators who use Hyperliquid as the onchain infrastructure layer for their own markets, while retaining control and responsibility over their deployment.
关于目前买reroll的性价比,盯紧平台收入就行,目前的市盈率还是很低的,上个星期平台赚了16k,粗估年收入83万,市盈率1.2,当然,reroll token只捕获30%的收入,所以实际市盈率是4,但要考虑到流通份额目前应该只有第一期的25m和流动性里的300m,pe依然不超过1.3的。
另外,如果担心市场的退出流动性脆弱,可以通过类似paper的模式,质押分站内收入,慢慢回本。因为只有质押的部分(目前42m)在分享收入20%的usdc,目前能确定上一周是分3200刀,也就是这周质押的直接收益就是7%(年化365%),另外,这42m其实有个小的信息差,里面混杂了空投锁定的(粗估)22m,锁定的部分只有0.25的权重,主动质押的,和市场买入的20m是完全权重,所以,第一周基本就能回款12%(年化625%)左右。
盈亏问题也跟paper当时lp被攻击类似,比如今天被高手掏走了一些,明天可能会有人亏一些回去,如果这周下来,平台依然整体亏损,那就没有分红了,而且亏损的数额会延续到下一周,直到开始盈利才分钱。
不过大数定理摆在这,长期来看赚钱还是简单的,目前赛道头部的估值是300m,并且质押年收益率还能有50%这样子,reroll想从1m到rlb的100m,甚至bc的300m,还需要更多的用户,和时间的检验。
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我这波复盘一下,属于重大失误,大部分的精力用在空投上了。22号达到第一季空投的第一个里程碑以后,我交易量第一,随后通过充提地址提前扒出来了合约,并且让bot监控开盘了,已经准备开盘买了。
但23号白天陪家里人打牌,没一直盯着,而且也没想到会这么低开,项目方7万市值开的盘,我看到的时候都40多万了,抓紧买了一些,现在已经120万。
明明都做了准备,还是重视度不够,没想到项目方会给交易员这么好的机会,相当于纯送钱了,我以为玩游戏拿筹码的成本才低,还好我这段时间是盈利的,不然真不如直接花钱买。
我十几万加权交易量,断层榜1,也就给了3m锁定的币,开盘买入的哥们随便买200刀就比我多了,你说这事闹的……
开盘10秒就狙了4k的哥们已经价值81k(盈利19x)了,还有好几个早期地址都钻住了,希望这些是团队地址吧,哈哈哈哈。
也不能说这么搞是要坑人,如果真要割一波走,那应该把价格定得更高,只能说是苦了我们第一期就开始参与的人了。
既然低开,项目方的思路应该是通过低开推土机拉盘吸引更多交易员,转化新用户,确实也是有效果,第二个里程碑我已经被挤到第三名去了,现在的第一名是个21点高手,一晚上赚走了12k,反正你如果输了指望空投补贴盈利,那很难,想通过积分买币的话,这个价格也就是覆盖磨损而已。
目前的空投更多只是附赠品而已,paper就是教训,玩玩可以,别太指望那点空投能让你扭亏为盈。
一天下来总结下,充进去1068,落袋了8478,提现到账还是比较快的。
剩了2000利润在里面,想继续刷交易量,结果没几下就给我亏完了,虽然劝大家风控,但我个人是喜欢激进打法的,毕竟合约20x开习惯了,赌性坚强。
这一天下来搞了100k交易量,空投是按3%庄家优势加权计算的,我玩的dice骰子一般是1%的庄家优势,所以权重是33%,加上创世纪分10%大家都有(用链接还有额外的10%加成,reroll.gg/?r=GUHE ),最终拿下37000分,目前是榜一。
总量10亿币,第一季空投2亿币,其中第一个里程碑是加权交易量100万,今天一天下来就十来万了,所以估计十来天就能到。
第一个里程碑对应25M REROLL份额,也就是每1刀加权交易量能拿25个reroll,在小额多笔,趋近概率的前提下,稳定磨损3%费率,1刀加权交易量的成本是0.03u,这个盈亏比还是很好的,对应token价格是0.0012u,也就是1.2m的估值,确实是不算贵。
所以目前我发现榜单上第四名这个peepooman就在刷分,自动交易了17000笔,平均的下注额才1.6u,打法还是很聪明的。
当然不得不说,整个hyperevm的估值体系比较务实,比如kntq87m的市值,nest33m的估值。
所以咱们可以参考同赛道项目,简单算一下项目成熟以后,积分价值的盈亏比,如果能达到yolo当时高位的73m fdv,就是单价0.073u,就有60x,要是未来可以达到rlb目前的fdv就是0.12u的单价,能有100x,我还是很看好的。
卧槽,这次kaito的质押和Kaito Studio都需要需要注册了以后才有空投资格吗?完全没看到公告啊。
我质押了14k个$kaito,Katalyst也是34名,啥也没有, @0xsexybanana @Punk9277 救救啊。
上次我说@popdex_ 可以作为27年的年度项目,投入仓位,主要聊了全链上撮合的去中心化优势,和百分百反馈给交易员的价值分配体系。
这次Popdex公测启动后,模式再一次升级,思路其实很简单,往MegaPop注资15万刀真金白银,吸引用户为了交易激励从其他平台转过来(哪怕你是来跨平台套利的,配合最近很火的paper,能有很多玩法),而这期间创造的价值又会40%回流到MegaPop,60%给其他活动池,全部分给用户。
这个手续费和用户飞轮简单有效,我不想过多讨论,主要想聊下上次帖子的评论区里,有位0xJayson老师,说popdex唯一的缺点,是跟bitget有关系。
上条帖子我确实有意回避了这点,向大家道歉,孵化popdex的Foresight Ventures和Bitget的资方有很大的重叠,并且popdex也会将bitget wallet作为重要的前端渠道。
真诚的说,在上次发帖时我当然也有顾虑,一家dex如果和cex非常近,还能是纯血dex吗?
不过前几天孙哥和仙道(金明,上次CB交易赛里三位中国交易员之一,应该没有公开X账号)的访谈里,孙哥聊Hyperliquid的时候为我提供了新的思路。
孙哥说如果监管给了Hyperliquid等dex类似uniswap一样的豁免优待,那么就会促使现有的cex转向dex进行监管套利。
这也是ICE等传统金融的交易所,在投资离岸中心化加密交易所,而中心化的加密交易所、RH这种新券商又在投资孵化popdex、lit等去中心化交易所的原因。
这个路径的产生很大一部分来自监管套利,老交易所存在的时间越长,监管越完善,束缚也就越多,不如投资一部分新产业,让新型交易所帮自己赚钱,毕竟cex在几年前的定位其实就和现在的dex差不多。
之前我还是格局小了,更多的站在一个用户的角度去考虑问题,而孙哥提出这个观点是很合理的,因为他在做cex,也在做dex,加上他的cex受到了监管的严厉打击,这是他的亲身经历带来的操作思路。
所以,未来如果这种监管差异进一步分化,那可能出现的情况不是cex在操纵或打压dex,而是cex转向dex,拥抱甚至成为dex,因为dex具备cex不具备的优势,而业务模式本质是一样的,为什么不变一变呢?之前已经上市的很多家所谓的dex背后是cex资金在推动,也能验证这一点已经开始发生。
每年这么多大小交易所倒闭,一方面人工成本的开销很大,另一方面合规成本很高,很多cex一直聊合规,但关键地区的合规非常难,这是显而易见的,何况拿到牌照以后还有持续的维护成本。
另外中心化的所有公司都有弱点,那就是对高管的司法管辖,这一点不仅是cex,也包括AI公司和传统公司。
就像这轮对抗中心化的BTC有越来越多筹码占比属于中心化的政府和机构一样,我们正处于一个重要的转型过程的开局,cex转向dex的时代无可避免的来了,这不仅是用户和机构做市商等用户的主动选择,更是交易所资方、政府监管的客观需求。
每次大洗牌都会有大机会,何况这次是供需产生合力,dex赛道整体都会有巨大的拓展,popdex的资方背景未必是缺点,反而是利大于弊的,只要其订单簿在链上,成交价格、被插针、抢跑和清算的时候是公平可验证的,资金是自托管的,就是好的dex,没必要有偏见。
























