ZERO IKA 🗡️

Bear market targets full commentary. In this video you'll find all my thoughts, reasoning process, analysis and what to look for. I invite you to watch it till the end because there are some important nuances that should be not skipped. Of course, with my classic 🇮🇹 accent that adds some funny sauce. Hope you'll appreciate it and, as always, thanks to the ones who support my work.

A quote to never forget: “If everything you offered was not enough, offer your absence. Sometimes, walking away is the greatest act of dignity and self-respect.” Mario Benedetti.

$USOIL 🛢️ Here we go with the move on USOIL. In the quoted post I was suggesting paying very close attention because there was a a value migration occurring around the key $86/82$ area. The result was a +11%, and by following the main idea, buying spot and opening a long, the trade worked out well. So this was an opportunity that I shared with everyone publicly as well, and I hope some people appreciated/took advantage. It is also very interesting to see how, every time these kinds of key levels are involved, a news story immediately appears to justify the price increase. In this case, it was Iran announcing the end of negotiations with the US.🇺🇸 Now, you all know what my long-term plan regarding oil is. Honestly, I do not believe it has exhausted its strength yet. Rather, I think this is a reaccumulation phase from a long-term perspective. Therefore, I expect it to continue fluctuating around these levels for a while and then eventually make a significant move higher, reaching a target, at least in my opinion, of around $130–145 per barrel. We will see what happens. However (and that's what most people are ignoring in my opinion) I continue to suggest that everyone look beyond the price of oil itself and try to understand the broader circumstances and what this situation means for the global economy. There are many opportunities everywhere that simply need to be recognized and seized. USOIL is a catalyst.

The scenario I had originally anticipated for $BTC (on this move) has already been invalidated and I think I can share a big lesson here with you. As you know, I've been bearish on Bitcoin since a while seeing this macro move nothing but an HTF retracement to the upside, in a context of a "dead cat bounce". Following this idea and the inital one on USDT/USDC, I did take a short position from the POC (chart on the left) targeting 72K. However, it's also true that, according to the thesis I had laid out, I was planning to go long from the 70–72K zone because it represented a demand area, so it made sense from a technical standpoint. In the end, I took a loss and got stopped out. One mistake I occasionally make is allowing my broader long-term bias to influence my decisions. Even so, I often try to capture these counter-trend moves in an attempt to optimize my performance but in this case, that optimization simply didn't exist. I should have respected the HTF and the long-term view instead of taking that additional risk, even though it was very small (I risked only 1–1.5%) as I always do. There was no real reason to take that trade. I should have simply stuck with the short position, which was my primary thesis. This is a major lesson. Sometimes the desire to catch this move or that move just doesn't make any sense. It literally doesn't make any sense. You simply need to have a plan, execute one setup, and that's it. And if there's a lesson here for anyone watching, it's that discipline will always outperform the need to be involved in every move. The market will give you endless opportunities, but your job as a trader is not to catch them all, it's to execute your edge consistently. Missing a trade is rarely what hurts your performance, abandoning your plan usually is. The best traders aren't the ones who take every opportunity, they're the ones who stay aligned with their process, even when the temptation to do otherwise is strong. So yes, I took a loss. It doesn't affect my broader long-term plan at all, but it was definitely something I could have avoided. As a result, I had to restructure the plan and continue following the original thesis, which was to see Bitcoin revisit at least the lows around 60K. Food for thought, I guess.

The older you get and the more you mature, the more you'll realize that the circle of people around you will continue to grow smaller, and in the end, the only ones who truly matter are your family and your real friends. Many people will enter your life and leave almost as quickly as they arrived. Others, the ones you were convinced would be there forever, will eventually disappoint you. Some promises will be broken, some bonds you thought were unshakable will quietly fade away and some people you trusted with your whole heart will become strangers you barely recognize. At first, this reality can feel painful. We grow up believing that the people we love today will always be part of our tomorrow. We assume that loyalty is permanent, that shared memories guarantee a lasting connection, and that time spent together creates an unbreakable bond. But life has a different way of teaching us. As the years pass, you begin to understand that relationships are not defined by how long someone has known you, but by how they choose to show up when life becomes difficult. You learn that some people love the version of you that benefits them, but disappear when you begin to grow. Some enjoy your company when everything is going well, but vanish when challenges arise. Others remain close only as long as your paths align, and once life pulls you in different directions, the connection slowly dissolves. And while those realizations can hurt, they also bring clarity. Because maturity isn't about becoming cynical or losing faith in people, it's about seeing relationships for what they truly are. It's about understanding that not everyone is meant to stay forever. Some people are chapters, a few are the entire story. The older you get, the less interested you become in maintaining large circles and superficial connections. You stop chasing approval. You stop trying to convince people to value you. You stop forcing relationships that require you to constantly prove your worth. Instead, you begin to appreciate the rare people who stay. The friend who calls when everyone else is silent. The family member who stands beside you when life falls apart. The people who celebrate your success without envy and support you through failure without judgment. The ones who know your flaws, your fears, your weaknesses, and still choose to remain. Those relationships become priceless. Because eventually you realize that life It's about recognizing who is genuine. And the truth is that as your circle gets smaller, your peace often grows larger. You spend less time dealing with drama, expectations, competition, and disappointment. You invest your energy in people who reciprocate it. You learn that quality will always outweigh quantity. Choose wisely.

Let's make a proper update on USDT/USDC D. for understanding the situation tied to $BTC. During the last post we were seeing a bounce from the key zone going for the supply and stating the importance of not closing above the 10.74% in order to not shift the MSS to bearish. So far, this didn't happen and we're now seeing a further aggression into the 3D supply which alone wouldn't mean a lot (in a clean HTF trend) but considering the several confluences that have been given (T1+BTC key zone). Now what I'm potentially seeing developed, is an HTF Wolfe Wave. 0 -> 1 -> 2 -> 3 -> 4 -> 5? The 5th move is missing and this is what I would like to see in a context in which we extend the local bullishness for an HTF distributive pattern on $BTC, hitting 80K as first area and $82.800+. Specifically, after the potential tap of the 9.70/9.40% (fully mitigating the zone), it would be important to track the ROV phase that, if confirmed, would likely open the doors for the EPA one and potentially more. Personally, for my preference, I would like to see another aggression to the upside on USDT/USDC deviating above the 28th May high, completely tapping the BTC key zone (-1/1.20% more or less) before the impulse, but this is not a key requirement considering the confluences that hit simultaneously. The invalidation here is pretty much clean, with consistent closures above 11.20% that would lilkely imply a test of the 70K (0 point) and even lower, if broken.

$META These are the setups that I like the most. When the price of an asset opens with a breakway gap and moves into the VAL of a 200 days fair value + positive earnings and starts to re-accumulate inside, it's often a reason to pay attention. In here I opened a swing long based on the concept of value migration, which may provide a solid 1:2R/R if price reaches the extreme boundary If price can close above the internal high at $624.98 creating a valid BOS. When the price remains inside value, you want to play the extreme boundaries instead of overcomplicating things.

🉐 Announcement: Product Enrolling (+limited offer) 🉐 As you know, we’re just 3 weeks away from the release of our proprietary app and I want to showcase all the features and future plans we have in mind. This wi be massive and game changer for many. (read till the end) 🉐 Dashboard In here you’ll be able to monitor your active and passive portfolios, manage futures, spot, stocks, commodities, and crypto from one professional workspace. 🉐 Trading Hub Probably one of the most interesting features. Members will be able to plan their setups (see here -> nitter.gq/iamzeroika/status/2057…) and share them in the hub, if they want. In this way, people will interact with each others about trading setups creating a collaborative environment. 🉐 MyTrades(aveanced trade management) As shown in the video, members will be able to organize setups by strategy, risk management, and key trading parameters to track and improve performance. 🉐 Sensei AI We will also integrate the Sensei AI that will analyze your trades to identify strengths, weaknesses, recurring mistakes, so you will grow step by step. 🉐 Smart Portfolio Members will be able to track assets and receive Sensei AI-driven insights on risk exposure, diversification, and portfolio optimization. 🉐 The Dojo (Next-Gen Education) How many PDF pages does Notion have? More than 2.000, an educational trading book, but it’s time to level up. It will be a fully redesigned educational experience integrating all learning materials into one modern platform and the goal is to integrate guided learning paths, simulations, quizzes, and progress tracking tailored to every trader level. 🉐 Future plans: 1️⃣ Integrate AI market scanner to discover real-time trading opportunities based on your trading style and preferred strategies. 2️⃣ Integrated live sessions The final goal is to detach from Discord and being able to follow the live sessions directly inside the platform. 3️⃣ Custom Workspace Personalize your environment with modular dashboards, watchlists, and custom layouts. 4️⃣ Integrated Economic Calendar + seasonality Over time, I want to give access to a built-in macroeconomic calendar with AI-enhanced market context and filtering tools + seasonality charts for trading specific commodities. 5️⃣ Ranking & Reputation System Why not building credibility within the community through quality analysis, setups, and contributions? Why not give them rewards for this? This is something I also have in mind. 6️⃣ Multi-Broker & Multi-Exchange Sync And what if we can allow people to connect brokers and exchanges to automatically sync portfolios, trades, and performance? Another thing I have in mind. As you can see, the goal is to build more than a trading platform, but a complete ecosystem combining education, trading, technology, and collaboration. This is my long-term plan. ⚡❗Limited offer⚡❗ At the moment, the price continues to remain $9.99, but considering all the work done during these 3 years and this integration, it will increase to $20.00/month starting from the 10th of June. You got time to lock in your sub lifetime at the original price till that date. Don't sleep on it, quality already speaks and will speak louder in the coming months.

Temporary people give permanent lessons.

$USOIL In my opinion, we need to pay close attention to US OIL, and this is the plan I have in mind. After the pump in December, many tried to suggest that the move could be completely retraced, but the truth is that US OIL keeps building value, and we have been inside this fair value for more than 70 days now. As you can see, we continue to migrate between the value area low and the value area high with small deviations, but in my humble opinion this is happening within a reaccumulation structure as value is being confirmed. The current bullish bias is also supported by the non-commercials which are skewed to the long side, making perfect sense to the current thesis. For this reason, with the current migration of value away from the VAH, it is likely that in the coming weeks we could see a return toward the VAL around $86/$82, which is my area of interest, and then potentially move, as TP1, back toward the POC and the VAH. However, since I believe this fair value structure is reaccumulative in nature,I think it could eventually break to the upside. If we manage to break the previous highs, in my view it could potentially even reach $128 or $140. As you can see, I have the extensions marked there, and this is the setup I’m currently monitoring. Keeping it simple, from value2value.

More or less, 3 weeks to the release of our proprietary app. Gonna be a game changer for many. Dojo V3 taking over.

The modern workweek may be one of the biggest psychological experiments in history. Humans were built for sunlight, movement, rest, community and natural rhythms instead of being placed under artificial lights, deadlines, alarms and endless notifications. And we normalized it. Now millions go to bed afraid of Mondays waking up tired and calling it adulthood. We numb fatigue with caffeine, stress with productivity and burnout with “just make it to Friday.” We spend 5 days surviving for 2 days of recovery. Not living, just “recovering”. The system’s greatest achievement wasn’t making people work this much but it was convincing them this is what life is supposed to be.

$NKE There’s a lot of attention around Nike right now so I would like to give you mi view on it. The stock has collapsed (down roughly 77% from the November 2021 highs) and it’s currently trading in a pure bearish price action environment, where every retracement has been sold aggressively. At the same time, there are a lot of bearish headlines surrounding the stock. Some people are even starting to question whether the company itself could completely fail. There’s a lot of fear in the market right now and this isn’t only due to the stock price action itself, but also because of certain decisions the company has made that investors clearly did not appreciate. In my opinion, this is a moment where it’s important to stay rational. 👉From a technical perspective, as you can see, the developing value are, the blue line, together with the VAH around the $73/75 zone, created a strong bearish impulse that completely destroyed the structure that originally fueled the 2015 and 2017 expansions. However, Nike is now approaching zones that I personally find extremely interesting. The first one is this multi-month structure formed between 2013 and 2014. Now, trying to knife-catch Nike here, in my opinion, makes absolutely no sense. Just because you see a monthly demand zone doesn’t mean you should immediately buy. Personally, I would like to see price action start consolidating inside this zone and begin creating value. If that happens, then you could potentially start considering an entry based on a trend reversal idea: range formation, breakout, retest and then expansion. And that applies not only for leveraged trading, but also for spot positioning. If this multi-month demand zone were to break, and obviously we don’t know yet, it has to be monitored step by step, then I would start evaluating the next major area of interest around $20. That, to me, would represent a truly massive opportunity. Because as you can see, there is a huge volume cluster there with the POC, all generated between roughly 2009 and 2012, meaning a very historical area of acceptance. If price were to revisit that region, the market would essentially rebalance the entire zone from an AMT perspective, and that’s where I would seriously consider a long-term spot entry. 🤏So basically, we have two scenarios: - Consolidation inside the current multi-month demand zone. - Or a move toward the $20 area Still, I think Nike is worth watching closely at current levels. As for upside targets, I don’t think it’s unrealistic, but definitely from a very long-term perspective, to see price eventually revisit the EQ around $94, and potentially even the $138–140 area. But again, this is a very long-term view. I personally do not believe Nike is going to die miserably. It’s still a very strong brand, and these kinds of cyclical phases happen even to companies of this caliber. So definitely keep an eye on it.

As $BTC approached one of the most sensible areas (see post here if you missed out on it nitter.gq/IamZeroIka/status/2051…) so the combination of both USDT/USDC D did, mitigating the first level marked as important one for tracking a potential correction. We had double confluence therefore is not surprising that BTC is pushing down from the 80s. At the moment, as you can see, we are in a supply zone at the top, and from here I would like to see a continuation to the downside. This is my preferred scenario, as it would allow for a full mitigation of the levels, a rebalancing of the imbalance formed on January 31, 2026, completing the break & retest, and leading to a deeper correction on Bitcoin. If that does not happen and the dominance shows enough strength to break the internal structure as well (we are talking about 10.74%) then the trend would shift bullish on dominance and bearish on Bitcoin, breaking the inverse structures and therefore potentially leading to much lower lows for Bitcoin, possibly even returning to the 60k area. However, this needs to be evaluated step by step. In any case, what I currently consider most likely is that Bitcoin is not in a bullish cycle zone, but that this is simply a continuation move, a dead cat bounce within a broader bearish structure. At least, that is what the data currently suggests. Of course, if the data changes, I will change my view as well, but as things stand right now, this is what I think.

For having a better perspective on which side is dominating the HTF trend, study momentum. The faster price travels in one direction, the stronger the momentum behind the move. The slower and less efficient the move becomes, the weaker the momentum. Within large price swings, measure how much time price takes to move from point A to point B. The market doesn’t only leave clues through direction, but it also leaves clues through speed. Understanding how quickly price expands can help you to identify where momentum is strengthening + where participation is accelerating and in which direction the next major move may develop.

I highly suggest you to read this. I want to share the experience of 2 members of the channel because I think it highlights something extremely important, something I talk about very often and valuable for everyone reading this post. One of the hardest things to understand when it comes to trading and investing is that you need to find a style that fits your life, not force your life to fit a trading style. Today we have access to endless information, infinite resources, and constant exposure to other people’s results. It always feels like everyone else is outperforming us. It looks like people are making money every single day while we stay stuck in losses or spend months going nowhere. And that’s where many people make the biggest mistake: they start trying everything in order to improve. First they trade LTF, then MTF, then HTF ones, then they switch strategy, then another strategy, then another one again. They keep searching for the perfect setup, the magical indicator, the “ultimate” system. But they end up trapped in an endless loop. I think Sonia and @Oak_en_Soul experiences are truly eye-opening because through their mistakes they managed to understand where they were going wrong and, more importantly, how to optimize their strategy around their actual lives. Because this is the truth many people ignore: you need to build a strategy that adapts to your life. We all have family, friends, work, responsibilities, commitments and statistically speaking, it’s impossible to constantly monitor charts all day unless trading is literally your full-time profession. And even many full-time traders burn out when they don’t have structure. For example, Sonia realized that constantly sitting in front of charts was creating anxiety, overtrading, and impulsive decisions. She was always chasing the “perfect trade,” entering too often and draining energy without achieving consistency. Once she accepted that her lifestyle wasn’t compatible with aggressive, fast-paced trading, she moved toward HTF, fewer but more calculated trades, and that’s when things started to change. The same applies to Oaken Soul. It’s a battle against our emotions, our discipline, and our ability to stay consistent over time. And this is where most people fail: they switch systems too early. The moment they hit a losing streak, they change approach. The moment they see someone else doing better, they jump into another strategy but by doing that, you never build enough data, experience, or confidence in your own system. Consistency does not come from finding the perfect strategy, it comes from executing a few things well over a long period of time. And most importantly, there is no universally “correct” trading style. There is only the style that is correct for you. Some people perform better swing trading and checking charts once a day. Others prefer trading only specific sessions. Some focus on long-term investing and live much better without the constant noise of the market. And that is perfectly fine. Because the real goal is not spending 12 hours a day staring at TradingView. The real goal is building an approach that is profitable, sustainable, and repeatable over time without destroying your quality of life. If making money requires you to live stressed, obsessed with the market, mentally exhausted, and disconnected from everything else, then you are building something that will eventually cost you more than it gives you. Find your rhythm, accept your limits, optimize your process. And stop believing that doing more automatically means achieving more. In trading, very often, less is more.

✍️ AMT rules I use for my trades: • Acceptance above VAL/below VAH price will likely migrate toward the opposite boundary of volume (VAH/VAL) using the POC as “reload” area for continuation • Acceptance above VAH usually signals repricing and continuation, rejection above VAH usually leads back into value because the auction failed to establish higher prices as fair value • Failed auctions at distribution extremes often lead to aggressive rotations back through the profile (with high statistical probability) -> the bigger the extremes, the higher the probability • Rejection from low volume areas usually brings price back toward high volume and fair value because low volume zones represent price levels where the market previously found little acceptance • If the market cannot build acceptance above a level, the breakout is often just trapped inventory created by late buyers entering into poor auction locations • A POC that keeps attracting price during trend usually confirms the “true business” and accumulation rather than exhaustion • The longer the market balances inside value, the more meaningful the eventual expansion becomes once acceptance is established outside the range • Consecutive higher value areas and higher POCs often reveal institutional acceptance of higher prices before trend continuation becomes obvious on the chart • Alignment with COT makes the AMT trade/setup more reliable giving it a +1

👁️- Soft commodities update - 👁️ (must read) Back in late March, the macro setup in soft commodities was becoming increasingly clear to my eyes and since the post, the basket is up +47%. I wasn’t looking at ☕️coffee, 🍬sugar, 🍫cocoa, and cotton as isolated markets, but through the macro drivers that historically move the entire complex: 🇧🇷Brazilian FX and energy. That was the foundation behind my bullish view. Today, with softs bouncing strong and some exposures already delivering major returns, the picture is even more interesting because this move wasn’t random. The market has started to realign with the macro backdrop that had already stopped confirming the previous weakness. And the core framework remains the same: 🇧🇷Brazil + oil.🛢️ Over the last few months, FX has not created new bearish pressure. If anything, the stabilization in BRL removed one of the main macro headwinds that had accompanied the previous decline. At the same time, oil continued to strengthen and that matters more than most people think. But more broadly, stronger oil supports the entire agricultural complex through higher input costs, transportation dynamics, and inflationary pressure across commodities. What we were seeing between March and April was therefore a divergence: macro drivers were turning supportive + soft commodities themselves were still pulling back = price action was underperforming the macro environment. And that gap is exactly what the market has started to close, as you saw. Because after a move like this the question is no longer whether there was value, It’s how much upside remains before the market fully prices in the new macro equilibrium. The framework I’m still watching remains unchanged: 🛢️Oil → needs to remain in good structure 🇺🇸🇧🇷USD/BRL → avoid another aggressive weakening in the real As long as energy remains firm and BRL stays relatively stable, the macro backdrop continues to support soft commodities. And more importantly, this move reinforces a key idea: often the best signal doesn’t come from the commodity price itself, but from the relationship between the commodity and the macro drivers that are supposed to move it. Intermarket analysis. Oh, and by the way, asset managers aren't fully positioned yet..I would take a look into those soft commodities that present divergence between price/COT to spot good trades. (there aren't many, so it's not hard to find them) Think softs will run more.

NEVER sacrifice your passions, your goals, or your ambition just to keep someone in your life. At first, you may think that many sacrifices look like love. You postpone a dream. You silence a part of yourself. You make yourself smaller to make the relationship work. But what I understood over time is there is a huge difference between compromise and self-abandonment. A healthy relationship should never require you to dim your light to comfort someone else. It should never make you feel guilty for growing, evolving, or chasing the things that make you feel alive. Someone who truly loves you will not see your growth as a threat. Boundaries exist for this exact reason: to protect who you are while building something with another person. Saying: “My goals matter.” “I need time for my personal growth.” “I don’t want to give up the things that fulfill me.” is not selfish, it is emotional maturity. Remember that real love does not demand the sacrifice of your identity, it demands mutual respect. A person who genuinely cares about you will not ask you to shrink yourself will not belittle your ambitions and most importantly will not make you choose between love and your future. Instead, they will support you, encourage you, and feel proud watching you grow. People who get uncomfortable with your boundaries often benefited from you having none. That is why boundaries matter. They reveal who wants to walk beside you… and who only wanted you to stop walking altogether.