Electric Blue⚡️💙🧢

2026, day 315 Good morning from Asia - and “It’s another distressing report, borderline disturbing.” GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Trump swung between war and diplomacy — then chose a third way’ (Axios); ‘Doha secured two-week window to prevent US attack on Iran, Qatari PM tells G7 ministers’ (JPost); ‘Iran backs nuclear treaty even as hardliners raise prospect of bomb’ (AJ); ‘Iran unveils massive underground 'missile city' as IRGC warns of violent global response’ (JPost); ‘Iran producing 50 missiles per month despite crippled industry: Western intelligence’ (BBG); ‘U.S., Iran Exchange Strikes on Islands as They Fight for Control of Strait’ (WSJ); ‘Trump is taking the Alamo route’ (FT) - “Accepting defeat with grace would go against a lifetime of going for broke”; ‘MBS, Bahrain’s king discuss regional developments’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Israel to expand Iron Beam integration as laser system set for bigger role in warfare by year's end’ (JPost); ‘Rubio: Israel rich enough to buy own weapons, Trump wants swift end to military aid’ (ToI); ‘RAF Fairford ‘mastermind directed terror attacks on FaceTime’’ (Telegraph); ‘US attempts new peace push at first Russia-Ukraine talks in nine months’ (Reuters); ‘U.S. Overture to Russia on European Security Sparks Alarm’ (WSJ); ‘Europe and US agree to review postwar continental security as Ukraine talks begin’ (Politico); ‘Zelenskyy tells Europe to hurry up and pick a rep for peace talks with Russia’ (Politico); ‘EU socialists push common defence, double down on Kyiv’ (Rapporteur); ‘Denmark pledges €643 million in military aid as Zelenskyy meets Nordic leaders’ (Euronews); ‘EU budget battle erupts as four countries defy Merz over Ukraine aid’ (Euronews); ‘Senior US soldier arrested by British police for ‘spying for Russia’’ (Telegraph); ‘EU offers cash for Black Sea attack response’ (Politico) - “Washington is pursuing a diplomatic effort on safe passage, weighing proposals from Turkey and India”; ‘Russia threat must not be used to reopen Brexit, says ex-defence minister’ (Telegraph); ‘Will Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s affair become another ‘spy balloon’ saga for US-China ties?’ (SCMP); ‘Beijing Sees a Weakened Trump. It Risks Getting a Tougher Negotiator’ (WSJ); ‘Democrats' midterm victory puts future of House China committee in doubt’ (Nikkei Asia) - “US lawmakers debate whether to retain panel, reshape it or shift focus to Al”; ‘Carney Says the U.S. Poses a Bigger Security Risk Than China as Canada Deepens Ties With Beijing’ (Culture Alberta); ‘Carney to tell Xi next week that foreigners shouldn’t interfere in Canadian affairs’ (Globe & Mail); ‘India forms commando units for close combat along China border’ (Nikkei Asia); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍✈️⛴️ 🚛 ‘Why Volkswagen wants to sell its China-made cars to the world’ (FT); ‘Commerce's Lutnick was sent warning on Nvidia CEO affair’ (Axios); ‘U.S. lawmakers push to curtail China’s access to AI chips in response to Nvidia scandal’ (Reuters); ‘US commerce department delays Megaspeed’s inclusion on trade blacklist’ (FT); ‘EU auditors: Russia sanctions undermined by ‘weak’ enforcement’ (Rapporteur); ‘The AI pay gap: A chip boom breeds jealousy and labor unrest in Asia’ (Nikkei Asia); POLITICS: 🗳️🤝🔪 ‘In furious speech demanding ‘unity government,’ Netanyahu claims Arab MKs want Israel’s destruction’ (ToI); ‘Netanyahu’s bid to block rival government fades as Eisenkot loses patience’ (Ynet); ‘Spain braces for nationwide strike as anger over housing, costs boils over’ (AJ); ‘House GOP shelves Pete Hegseth impeachment articles’ (The Hill); ‘Jim Jordan Wins Secret Vote to Lead House GOP After Midterm Losses’ (WSJ); ‘Activists, some colleagues aim to block Schumer, Jeffries from leading Democrats’ (WaPo); MARKETS: 📈🫧💵 ‘Hot Inflation Revives Wall Street’s Rate Hike Fears’ (WSJ); ‘Traders Who Rushed to Safety of Bonds Get Rattled in Reversal’ (BBG); ‘Fed’s Goolsbee Says October CPI Report ‘Borderline Disturbing’’ (BBG)

2026, day 314 Good morning from Asia - and it looks like it’s Plan B time in the Middle East for the U.S., which is not Plan TACO - far from it if you can project any geopolitical dots. GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Qatar, Saudi Arabia want peaceful solution on Iran but US ready for strikes: Trump’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Iran’s top security official says US should stop manufacturing ‘fake news about imaginary talks’’ (Reuters); ‘US task force to cut off Iran’s transport of advanced weapons: What we know’ (AJ); ‘Saudi Arabia reports new attack on key East-West pipeline’ (AJ); ‘Saudi-led coalition destroys Houthi factory for production of ballistic missile components’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Syria confirms sending troops to Saudi Arabia amid battle against Houthis’ (AJ); ‘Syria Moves Towards Joining Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan’ (Militarnyi); ‘Netanyahu said calling Trump ‘every day’ to push him to resume Iran war’ (ToI); ‘France blames Iran for cyberattacks targeting supermarket fridges’ (Politico); ‘Firm bets on converted fishing trawlers to tackle Russian submarines in the Arctic’ (Defense News); ‘Russian strikes aim to cut Ukraine in half, Zelenskyy warns’ (FT); ‘Russia and Ukraine showing flexibility on territory, US official says’ (Reuters); ‘The Kremlin call: How talking to Putin exposed Europe’s deepest rift over Ukraine’ (Politico); ‘Merz ties EU budget deal to new Ukraine loans’ (Rapporteur); ‘Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry hits back at hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon over Donbas referendum’ (Euronews); ‘Lithuanian president confirms talks on renaming Taiwan office in diplomatic U-turn’ (SCMP); ‘Fresh GJ-11 footage gives a glimpse of weapon bay on China’s next-gen drone’ (SCMP); ‘Japan to give Philippines drones, radar systems in biggest security aid to date’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Chances of Trump-Kim summit 'go up' after US midterms: expert’ (Korea Times); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘Nvidia Intervened in US Probe of Megaspeed Chip Smuggling’ (BBG); ‘Trump says FBI is ‘looking into’ Nvidia’s Jensen Huang’ (FT); ‘Europe needs Nvidia. It’ll take more than a spy scandal to change that’ (Politico); ‘Senate advances bipartisan permitting reform bill, teeing up passage’ (The Hill); ‘BA parent says onerous green charges will ‘kill’ Europe’s aviation industry’ (FT); ‘US energy giant Murphy joins Israel offshore gas drilling push after Eni exit’ (Ynet); ‘Honda to build new $3 billion auto plant in Ohio, adding 2,000 jobs’ (WSJ); ‘Honda, Ford show commitment to Canadian auto plants despite tariffs’ (Globe & Mail); ‘Musk's Terafab chipmaking project lines up Japan suppliers’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Toyota set to bring Camry back to Japan with reverse imports from US’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Japan and Vietnam agree to boost economic security and energy ties’ (BBG); ‘India clears path to join EU's €93b Horizon Europe research programme’ (Brussels Times); POLITICS: 🗳️ 🤝🔪 ‘Hegseth faces impeachment resolution from GOP member with little to lose’ (Axios); ‘Dana White takes podium at White House press briefing’ (The Hill); ‘Eisenkot, Liberman said to greenlight outreach to Haredim, reach agreement on Knesset speaker’ (ToI); ‘Alberta leader faces backlash after winning referendum to remain in Canada’ (FT); ‘France’s Macron welcomes judo star Teddy Riner’s entrance into the 2027 presidential race’ (SCMP); MARKETS: 📈 ‘ECB contender Klaas Knot ‘won’t hesitate’ to act in a debt crisis’ (FT) - “Candidate says he would be ready to invent new crisis-fighting tools if required”; ‘Oil Extends Drop as Trump Says Further Iran Strikes Unnecessary’ (BBG); ‘ASX rallies as consumer confidence sinks to four-year low’ (AFR); ‘Ottawa taps Bridgewater executive to lead sovereign wealth fund’ (Globe & Mail)

2026, day 313 Good morning from Asia - and we made it through the weekend without a major new attack on Iran… but how much longer? GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Trump says renewed attacks on Iran ‘highly unlikely’ if talks show progress’ (CNN); ‘Trump held off on Iran strike as Israel, US prepared for military operation, sources tell 'Post'’ (JPost) - “Israel and the US prepared for a possible strike on Iran over the weekend, but Trump held off as mediators continued efforts to reach an agreement”; ‘Iran FM says no negotiations since ‘shock’ of US midterms’ (AFP): ‘'Iranian demands are outrageous,' Rubio says as talks fail to make progress’ (JPost); ‘Democrats plot to choke off Iran war — with some GOP help’ (The Hill); ‘‘We’re not done with Iran’, warns Israel’ (Telegraph); ‘Explosions heard on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz’ (AP); ‘Iran suggests blasts are not US attacks as both sides report ships hit’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Pakistan's Hormuz agreement with Iran faces test after LNG tanker attack’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Production suspended at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field after drone attack, sources say’ (Reuters); ‘Saudi-led coalition says destroyed Houthi ballistic missile launch platforms in Yemen’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Saudi Aramco office in Riyadh damaged in latest Houthi strikes’ (FT); ‘Trump asked Netanyahu to move on Gaza peace plan in post-election call’ (Axios); ‘Hundreds of thousands join Amsterdam’s ‘Red Line’ protest against Israel’ (AJ); ‘Europe will be represented in Abu Dhabi talks on Ukraine, French foreign minister says’ (Politico); ‘NATO faces €7B shortfall on military aid pledge to Ukraine’ (Politico); ‘Poland calls Krakow shooting rampage ‘terrorist’ attack’ (Reuters); ‘Dublin launches ‘blueprint’ for united Ireland’ (FT); ‘Mysterious billionaire shows off ‘America’s oil’ — and Trump’s Venezuela’ (WaPo); ‘Is China getting faster at integrating new nuclear missiles into its forces?’ (SCMP); ‘Japan Works to Shield Takaichi From Any Xi Snub at China Summit’ (BBG); ‘Taiwan planning harsher penalties for collaborators’ (Taipei Times); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘Nvidia Opens Investigation Into Jensen Huang’s Relationship With Chinese Spy’ (NYT); ‘Trump Backs Huang as Nvidia CEO After He Admits Affair With Spy’ (BBG); ‘Is Europe getting serious about ending tech dependence?’ (FT); ‘Russia ships metal via the Arctic to evade Ukrainian strikes’ (FT); ‘Egypt announces new Mediterranean gas field discovery estimated at 200 billion cubic feet’ (Euronews); POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘Bruising Election Result May Push NZ Ruling Party Further Right’ (BBG); ‘‘With Stephen Miller at the helm, Trump charts a course for conflict’ (Reuters); ‘Trump says deportation policy was ‘too tough’’ (AFP); ‘Potential Vance challengers smell blood in the water after brutal GOP losses’ (WaPo); ‘Mamdani's bid for 2028 kingmaker’ (Axios); ‘Sotomayor says she hopes Supreme Court will overturn presidential immunity decision’ (The Hill); ‘Democrats vow to impeach Trump officials and investigate Republican donors’ (FT); ‘Eisenkot tasked with forming government, vows ‘creative and unconventional’ path to ‘emergency’ coalition’ (ToI); ‘Eisenkot open to Netanyahu joining Israel’s next government’ (AJ); ‘‘I’m not Gina’s puppet’: Hanson predicts upset in Victorian polls’ (AFR); ‘Mélenchon fires up his base for Le Pen runoff’ (Rapporteur); MARKETS: 📈 ‘Treasury Rally Gets New Boost as Election Hammers the AI Trade’ (AI); ‘Crypto industry braces for reckoning over Trump ties’ (FT); ‘Don’t Trust the Market’s Knee-Jerk Reaction to the Midterms’ (WSJ) - “Politically driven trades can be justified, but they might backfire once postelection hype settles down”; ‘The unrest on Europe's streets should worry global investors’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Asian investors amass Western bonds; risk assessment can't eliminate surprises but can highlight vulnerabilities”

I’m sure @LukeGromen knows I agree with everything he says in terms of the problems. 🤝 We really only differ in that I think the neomercantilist statecraft China embraces doesn’t care what form of money anyone uses. They aren’t changing systems whatever happens on that front. If a neomercantilist (“stuff is power”) turns into an old-school mercantilist (“gold is power”) it still comes down to **who controls upstream to downstream supply chains and global chokepoints**. They have the former. So now the latter get choked. All sadly predictable. That, plus the U.S. *may* (and it was always a ‘may’ not a ‘will’) be able to use legacy Eurodollar power as financial Fartcraft to transform itself back to a neomercantilist model fit for a World of Warcraft. At great cost. Yes, there will be major consequences for markets in that for sure; past is prologue there. There are also major consequences for not trying to do that. In short, “stuff” happens!

2026, day 312 Good morning from Asia after a long journey home. But 2026 doesn’t stop: while domestic politics is about to become UFC, *that* Dana White will not be the next White House press secretary. Meanwhile, elsewhere… GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Trump's wounded presidency turns to two unresolved wars’ (WaPo) - “Elections have consequences overseas, too”; ‘Bessent said to reach out to China to help end Iran war after Republicans' midterm election defeat’ (ToI); ‘To Cross the Red Sea, Shippers Email Houthi Rebels. Read Their Inbox’ (WSJ); ‘Yemeni gov’t forces report advances as Houthis say deadly strikes hit Sanaa’ (AJ); ‘Syrian diplomatic source denies reports of plans to deploy troops to Yemen’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Expanding on naval blockade, US military looks to restrict Iranian land commerce’ (Reuters); ‘US offers $20 mn reward for info on ‘Iran’s nuclear program’: CENTCOM’ (AFP); ‘Iranian media say explosions have been heard in Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the cities of Jask, Sirik and Bandar Abbas’ (AJ); ‘Ten Months of War to Gain 46 Square Miles: How Russia Is Failing on the Battlefield’ (WSJ); ‘Russia will delay peace talks until spring' to batter Ukraine’ (Telegraph); ‘Russian strikes on Ukraine's drug supply chain leave pharmacy shelves empty’ (Kyiv Independent); ‘Russia unleashes massive attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure’ (FT); ‘Russia forced to ship grain via Arctic as Black Sea battles rage’ (FT); ‘Finland defense minister calls for burden sharing on defense and Ukraine, for the sake of European unity’ (Kyiv Independent); ‘EU rejects Trump's 'big beautiful' security deal with Russia and 'all of Europe'’ (Euronews); ‘Bomb threats continue to target aircrafts across Europe’ (Euronews); ‘White House Weighs Executive Order Attaching Terrorist Label to Some Nonprofits’ (WSJ); ‘El Salvador's president thinks he can eliminate Haiti's gangs’ (Economist); ‘Paraguay swears in new president as Pena is put under house arrest’ (Reuters); ‘The Miller Doctrine: Trump's "wartime consigliere"’ (Axios) - “Today is a bad day for the Cuban regime."; ‘History repeats in Shenzhen? China hosts another lame-duck US president’ (SCMP); ‘Trump’s war secretary Hegseth and Pacific Command chief Paparo may ‘soon visit China’’ (SCMP); ‘PLA may be simulating Taiwan isolation: report’ (Taipei Times); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘Why are oil traders refusing to buy Russian diesel after Trump-Putin deal?’ (AJ); ‘Donald Trump has taught the world that tariffs are useless’ (FT); ‘Trump 10-12% Tariffs on 86 Countries Likely Struck, With a Catch’ (BBG); ‘US warns China it must ‘immediately’ meet terms of Busan trade deal’ (FT); ‘EU-China truce under strain as both sides brace for potential trade war’ (SCMP); ‘EU Commission floats anti-China 'deterrence pact'’ (Rapporteur); ‘EU capitals urge Brussels to ‘swiftly’ sign electricity deal with U.K.’ (Politico); ‘Trump-backed critical minerals deals face growing pressure after blue wave’ (BBG); ‘Trump envoy's push to reopen Lithuanian ports to Belarus exposes rift in Washington’ (Rapporteur); ‘Budget 2026: A glimpse of a post-Trump world with more than one problem to solve’ (Globe & Mail); ‘MAGA is wounded. Here’s how Carney should respond’ (National Post) - “There may be opportunity to strengthen the North American alliance”; ‘US believes Nvidia’s Huang had romantic relationship with alleged Chinese spy’ (FT); POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘Trump Signals Combative Next Two Years With Elevation of Stephen Miller’ (WSJ); ‘Hegseth Mounts Aggressive Campaign to Fight Pending Impeachment’ (WSJ); ‘Belgian king refuses PM Bart De Wever's resignation and asks him to restart budget talks’ (Euronews); ‘New mass protests in France as police seek to thwart banned rally’ (AFP); ‘Israeli president picks Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu rival, to try to form government’ (Reuters); ‘New Zealand's knife-edge election puts coalition talks in focus’ (Nikkei Asia)