Real Vision

It’s on. Our Trading League is officially open. Post up to three trade ideas inside Real Vision between now and November 20 and compete for up to $100K in prizes.  All you need to get started is a free account. You don’t need to make any real trades, just post the idea, and it gets scored on how it plays out in the market. And we’re not sending you in blind… Last week we ran two days of live workshops with some of the best in the game, all recorded and ready to watch with your free account.  Plus you get a free Trade Agent to use for the whole League. Type a ticker, let it do the digging, then post the idea that holds up. Your future. Your move.

“We never asked for legislative clarity. We asked for regulatory clarity.” @perkinscr97 on why institutions are walking into crypto without waiting for Congress.

AI has no demand ceiling, says @RaoulGMI, because the main buyer of intelligence is intelligence itself. Every layer, TSMC, Nvidia, data centers, hyperscalers, models, is making 30% to 65% margins and Anthropic’s S-1 shows 85%. Cash flow is funding this build, which is very unlike 2000s.

What happens when you let an AI agent run the company? @jayantkrish is finding out. His agent is CEO of a business, deciding what the product is, which services to buy and how to market it. He's not sure it'll work, but it's making the same kinds of calls he would. "My conclusions thus far have been I'm impressed."

The AI trade has done more than lift stocks. It's been lifting the spending of the people who own them. @pboockvar says that's why this sell-off matters beyond markets. If the S&P 500 stays much lower without a quick snapback, he doesn't expect upper-income spending to keep running at the same pace. "The stock market is the economy, the economy is the stock market."

please. the chips are already down enough this week.

It’s liquidity, stupid. Palvatar covers Raoul’s current take on markets in this week's theme of the week.  US liquidity has gone nowhere since July, and markets have followed it sideways. Financial conditions are signalling another dip, so Raoul expects choppy, frustrating markets for a while yet. Growth may slow while markets still push toward all-time highs.

Stocks took an AI-driven hit this week, with the Nasdaq down almost 6%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin held the 75k level it has defended all year. Chart of the Week comes from Real Vision member Alessio A, who argues a year of Bitcoin underperformance sets it up to catch up once liquidity turns. He grants it could just as easily roll over. Set up to catch up, or stuck?

Coinbase has fallen 66% from its high, hitting a new 52-week low.  @RaoulGMI is counting more exhaustion signals on that chart than on any he has traded. Nine after nine, 13 after 13 on the daily, the same stack on the weekly.  That many together tells him the selloff is close to done.

“We’re all in” The AI trade has been carrying growth, earnings and the stock market. Yesterday showed what happens when it turns. @pboockvar says the Fed is watching the build-out closely. If it slows and hits growth, the inflation data from the last few months becomes old news.

… jinxed it. Chips have lost 12% in a day and dragged the S&P 500 down 4.4% to 7,354. Bitcoin has followed tech below $76,000 while Gold has held up at $4,075. Oil has enjoyed the show, bouncing back to $91. AI pessimism just took the whole market with it…

Nobody is immune to a midterm...

Tokenization headlines are going up, but the real usage hasn't followed. @DavidDuong (Head of US, Ethereum Institutional) says institutions have spent a lot of time talking and running small pilots. Clients still can't easily subscribe or redeem onchain. Production is the test the pilots haven't passed yet.

Every credit investor @AndreasSteno met last week told him the same thing: we’re full on AI capex. Nobody is lining up to fund the sector, and the market is now pricing tech cheaper on forward terms than at the 2022 bottom. He sees it as the opposite of 2000, when the same investors were shouting “give us more.” Now the fastest-growing sector in history is hearing no.

$261 billion of data-center projects have been cancelled in 2026 through 3Q. The third quarter alone has nearly matched 2024 and 2025 combined. Cancellations are rising while memory is running scarcer than GPUs and companies still can’t find the compute they need. The build is getting cut by the market before Congress has touched it. Power and memory continue to be the bottleneck on the AI buildout.

Democrats have taken both chambers and the next seven weeks will decide what 2027 looks like for markets. Here’s what to watch: - Outgoing Congress is sitting until January 3 with key jobs left: funding past December 11, the debt limit, nominees, BAAJA (permitting) and CLARITY - The current debt limit is at $41.1tn and Treasury could hit it as early as February 2027. - Two shutdown dates to mark: December 11 and October 1, 2027. - Fiscal policy is mostly locked. Broad new tariffs need Congress, and that route is closed until 2029. - Energy prices are still the swing variable for 2028. The vote has set the direction and the next weeks will set the price.