Federal Treasury, Head of Global Strategy TD London, Advisor to a PM, punter. Speaker. MD Market Economics.
Joined May 2009
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My 2026 forecasts:
GDP H1 lifts to 2.5%; sub 2.0% in H2
Unemployment rate to 5%
Inflation eases 2.0 to 2.25%
Wages growth soggy at 3%
RBA cuts to 3.10%
10 yr bonds 4.00%
AUD lifts to 75 c
House prices – no change, downside risks
ASX200 – below 8,000
youtube.com/watch?v=u6007K2J…
How absurdly Sydney centric is the RBA?
It will again be making an interest rate announcement when there is a public holiday in Melbourne. It is impossible to imagine a scenario when the RBA would make an interest rate annoucenment when there is a public holiday in Sydney.
The ABS is not releasing any data, the AOFM is not issuing bonds or Notes, yet the RBA is making a key interest rate announcement.
It is a big deal.
This more than an irritation, but self indulgent slop from the people who chose the dates on RBA interest rate announcements. Like meeting the day before inflation data are released as it was in September.
Westpac's Luci Eliis shows up Patricia Karvalis for her shockly ignorant knowledge of economics & recent data. Probably wont stop PK giggling away with some folksie take on the economy tomorrow. Via @DeanRosario nitter.gq/DeanRosario/status/211…
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Dwelling building approvals, in trend terms, are at their highest since 2021.
More dwellings are on their way
ICYMI
Residential building approvals edge back up – the supply response for housing continues in a good way for those interested in affordability & availability.
The 5% lift in the number of approvals in Sep followed a 5% fall in August. There were a large number of lower cost dwellings - apartments - approved in the month.
youtube.com/watch?v=O0kMCCMM…
Wait till Speersy realises there's no means testing or income related tax breaks for the poor for Medicare, the PBS, public education, tertiary education, road usage, alcohol, petrol, the GST...
Residential building approvals edge back up – the supply response for housing continues in a good way for those interested in affordability & availability.
The 5% lift in the number of approvals in Sep followed a 5% fall in August. There were a large number of lower cost dwellings - apartments - approved in the month.
youtube.com/watch?v=O0kMCCMM…
ICYMI
National house prices down:
Some suggest interest rates are a key issue,
But with prices rising in Darwin & Hobart, where borrowers pay the same interest rate as Sydney & Brisbane, prices are rising
Down 6.7% - the fall in house prices continues.
House prices fell 1.2% in October to be 6.7% down from the March peak.
Good news for rental affordability & inflation: Cotality showed the rental vacancy rate rose to 2.3%.
In yet another example where house prices buck changes in interest rates, dwelling prices rose in Hobart & Darwin. I can assure you that the folks in those two great cities pay the same interest rate as those in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth & Wagga Wagga.
Just goes to show that when it comes to house prices, other factors dominate interest rates.
youtube.com/watch?v=brmBCDMP…
Down 6.7% - the fall in house prices continues.
House prices fell 1.2% in October to be 6.7% down from the March peak.
Good news for rental affordability & inflation: Cotality showed the rental vacancy rate rose to 2.3%.
In yet another example where house prices buck changes in interest rates, dwelling prices rose in Hobart & Darwin. I can assure you that the folks in those two great cities pay the same interest rate as those in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth & Wagga Wagga.
Just goes to show that when it comes to house prices, other factors dominate interest rates.
youtube.com/watch?v=brmBCDMP…
ICYMI
A huge week ahead. Listen in why
It's Bigger than Big! The Next 5 Days.
In addition to Tuesday's RBA interest rate decision & Melbourne Cup, it's a huge week for economics & markets news.
House prices; building approvals; household spending; international trade balance for goods; US elections & a brittle stock market, to name a few.
Knock ‘em out!
youtube.com/watch?v=rCZy9t2C…
ICYMI
Melbourne Cup preview...
Forget interest rates, Tuesday is Melbourne Cup Day!
The form is always tricky with so many international raiders, some first up over 3,200 metres – Yikes.
My tips are here. Good luck punters. May the horse be with you.
Remember - bet only what you can afford to lose.
youtube.com/watch?v=xs9r0ZYB…
It's Bigger than Big! The Next 5 Days.
In addition to Tuesday's RBA interest rate decision & Melbourne Cup, it's a huge week for economics & markets news.
House prices; building approvals; household spending; international trade balance for goods; US elections & a brittle stock market, to name a few.
Knock ‘em out!
youtube.com/watch?v=rCZy9t2C…
Forget interest rates, Tuesday is Melbourne Cup Day!
The form is always tricky with so many international raiders, some first up over 3,200 metres – Yikes.
My tips are here. Good luck punters. May the horse be with you.
Remember - bet only what you can afford to lose.
youtube.com/watch?v=xs9r0ZYB…
Isn't it funny when prime knobs & blowhards are shown up in this way
Budget repair: Yes, measures raise substantial revenue (negative gearing/CGT ~$43bn over 9 years, trusts ~$4.5bn over 5), improving medium-term sustainability after funding worker tax cuts, though behavioural shifts may trim the net take.
Taxpayers will pivot: Investors already favour new builds or non-property assets; trusts restructure ahead of 2028 rules; CGT indexation and 30% floor prompt longer holds or alternative planning around 2027 valuations.
Rental supply and construction: Limited stimulation expected. Early new-build lending rose but capacity constraints and industry models show net fewer dwellings overall; total investment may fall, tightening rentals.
Inflation: Mildly disinflationary via reduced private demand, yet possible rent rises (Treasury ~$2/week) could offset; net effect small amid broader policy.
If addition to smashing shareholder's wealth, Geoff is missing what should be an obvious issue that the tax changes do take money out of the economy, further repair the budget & take some pressure off inflation. It's pretty simple. But I suppose if you've never worked in an area that implements govt policy, you can be excused for being ignorant of how it all works
Using your words: @TheKouk classic “jellyback” take.
Opposing the world’s highest effective CGT rate (and the negative gearing hit) isn’t “wanting a bigger deficit and stimulus”. It’s opposing a tax that hammers productive investment, housing supply and ordinary people trying to build wealth.
You’re equating tax rates with government spending. That’s either economic illiteracy or deliberate spin. People aren’t stupid and the polling shows they see right through it. Spineless defence of economic vandalism.
Time to grow a backbone.
Any other thoughts on the Kouk?
It's really odd that when there are problems with inflation, the likes of @GeoffWilsonWAM want a larger budget deficit and govt stimulus
Saturday Morning Omnibus - May the horse be with you
Cotality house prices – 5 cities – down 1.5% in October. Another $160 billion or so slashed from household wealth in one month.
Talk of fiscal tightening in the MYEFO – Bring it on. A budget surplus is in reach, it’s a badge of honour & it does help to get inflation lower.
Some agricultural prices falling – cheese, milk, OJ, coffee, cocoa. Does it mean anything?
Victoria election betting: Odds mean 75% probability of Coalition win, about 22% Labor, 3% some other result.
Horse tips for Flemington, Randwick & Morphetville.
youtube.com/watch?v=TDFkL9E5…
Anyone for a budget surplus? It could be on the cards for 2026-27.
The Commonwealth government budget numbers are looking chipper with the underlying cash balancing running $10.6 billion ahead of the May Budget time run rate for the first 3 months of FY2026-27.
youtube.com/watch?v=xg2mr4x2…
What is it that the RBA knows that all other central banks don't when it comes to the current inflation problems?
All other CBs are happy to hold or at least take baby steps given the growth inhibiting effect of oil prices. Yet the RBA, with rates already at a 15 yr high, seems hell bent on hiking further
ICYMI
“To hike, or not to hike, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them?”
William Shakespeare - Hamlet
Virtually everyone, including the drover’s dog & Blind Freddie, expect the RBA to hike rates on 3 November.
If the majority of the Board agrees with the whims & ramblings of the rafter of senior Bank officials in recent weeks, it’s shut the gate on the hike.
Be that as it may, there are a growing number of concerns about this strategy & in the attached video, I outline a series of questions that the Board should have answer to as it contemplates its next policy step.
youtube.com/watch?v=EqdeZlEZ…
Could it be that the high inflation rate has nothing to do with supermarket price gouging?
Obviously, yes
Coles warns on sales, profit
afr.com/companies/retail/col…
