financier.

new york city
Joined September 2016
ScienceIO has been acquired by Veradigm Together, we are going to build the intelligence provider for the future of healthcare.
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Will Manidis retweeted
anthropic is massively underplaying the recent security breach. i'm hearing cathedral achieved full administrator access of the slack workspace (see every message, log in as arbitrary users) where literally every single research secret is contained to those unfamiliar: Ant & OAI keep literally everything in Slack. it sounds exactly the same incident that happened to OpenAI in 2023, where OpenAI was hacked by a random guy who got access to an access token from an external app service "we're critical to national security, we must beat China, and yes we keep all our crown jewels in Salesforce's Slack messenger. yes we have admin API tokens everywhere. why do you ask?"
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trillion dollar pdf
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this is about the s1 just fyi
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Will Manidis retweeted
honestly have no idea what frontier lab equity is worth; it seems highly plausible that huge top down slowdowns are coming, which would make frontier models uncompetitive. total nationalization also seems possible. anything could happen with this technology
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i try to not place much credence in using religious metaphors to understand what is happening inside of the intelligence trade, but the survival rates of adherents to prophets that eschew any notion of conversion and promise eternal reward to only early believers is basically 0
"we remember what you were saying in 2019. You have no credibility on this matter"
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Will Manidis retweeted
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Will Manidis retweeted
Congrats to the team at Lumaril! They’re doing amazing stuff. Extremely talented and experienced team.
Today we’re launching Lumaril. We’re an industrial autonomy company helping America’s existing factories run at their true capacity, with more production and less waste. The US is home to hundreds of thousands of plants, run by senior operators with decades of tacit knowledge. Much of it is unwritten, and a growing wave of retirements is taking it out the door. If we let these facilities go dark, we don't just lose great companies and the towns that depend on them. We lose the living blueprints for making the goods and materials this country can’t afford to do without. Reindustrialization won’t come from new factories alone. The plants we already have are great American businesses, built over generations, with enormous potential to grow. We believe helping them scale is the fastest path to restoring industrial capacity.
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golden age
Cliff Sosin (@CliffordSosin) is one of my favorite people to call, ask some big questions, and then shut up and listen. This conversation is a version of one of those calls. We discuss: - The limits of intelligence - Owning the complements to it - Meta, the frontier labs, and the AI build-out - Capital markets - Why he's comfortable with 80% of his portfolio in Carvana. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 10:41 The Limits of Intelligence 18:03 Investing Beyond Cheap Intelligence 24:03 Will AI Become Commoditized? 35:10 Who Profits From AI? 43:00 AI Agents Reshape Competition 52:06 America's Capital Markets 58:04 Transforming Companies With AI 68:19 AI and Portfolio Concentration 73:16 Education in the AI Era
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anthropic: palace intrigue, warring harems, secret successors, extrajurisdictional (dario has never been served), worships a local diety, secret missing cofounders openai: mostly former meta people idk, sam gets served constantly (terrestrial), weird structuring problems
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Will Manidis retweeted
fact check: even truer rumor is Cathedral got a lot of Slack, maybe all of research. what the fuck are we doing guys
there is no question, none at all, that china has full access to all of openai & anthropic’s github/slack/docs today no disrespect to their independent research progress, but i wouldn’t be surprised if we see plausibly-deniable stolen arch methods in chinese oss models
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the anthropic s1 has photos of USG developed bioweapons in it and you’re still confused
Anthropic S1 pg 3 appears to be a plate of S. marcescens, aka the tracer bacteria released in the Bay Area in the 50s by the US Army to test potential bioweapon aerosolization spread, and endemic ‘red gunk’ scourge of cheap rental apartment bathrooms across the bay to this day
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the easier it is to leave a financial regime, the more critically a government must think about applying pressure to its wealthy residents. there is almost nothing holding wealthy britons to the gbp. most are dollar domiciled as is, hard to not see this slipping very quickly
🚨NEW: HMRC's letter to wealthy Britons demanding detailed information about their financial arrangements has been revealed
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my low iq take on this is currencies that are near-at parity with USD need to be particularly careful. the mental friction of "knowing how much things cost" means exotic pairs have much more migratory sticking power (ex: forint/usd, might as well be funbux) than close links
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i have like 140 pages of prose on currencies, technology, jurisdictions, coming later this week so maybe i should just let it lie but i do think non US/China governments haven't processed how little ability they have left to extract concessions from their wealthy/mobile/global
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Will Manidis retweeted
Come back to this, periodically, like a mantra: no one knows when the City of London Corporation was chartered, but William the Conqueror made a public promise to leave it untouched in 1067. Magna Carta, 1215: "The City of London shall enjoy its ancient liberties."
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its somewhat remarkable that the best companies of this generation are run with almost total disregard for common equity holders, just absolute monarchies that ravage, dilute, and disrespect the common to no end and you still get rich holding them. there's something there.
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this is one of the best blog posts ever written and i send it to people 100 times a year and its genuinely a tragedy that its not more widely read.
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Will Manidis retweeted
The first healthcare store we built was amazon. The second healthcare store we built was @GeneralMedicine. So it only felt appropriate that the third would be @Walmart. Announcing Walmart Better Care Services, a healthcare store powered by General Medicine. 
The story behind it, from @elliotcohen, below.
Nearly nine years ago, @TJParker and I went to Bentonville to talk to @Walmart about building a different kind of pharmacy. While we were there, we visited The Walmart Museum. If you haven’t been, go! I loved seeing the history of a company that started with a single store and changed what people everywhere could buy and afford. We were building PillPack at the time, and spent much of that trip talking about what healthcare could learn from retail. Today we’re launching the new Walmart Better Care Services, a healthcare store powered by General Medicine. Starting today, customers can browse more than 900 products and services across a dozen different provider groups, compare cash and estimated insurance prices, and get what they need. Walmart defined the experience, chose the products, services, and providers. Our technology makes it all shoppable. A lot has happened since that first trip. We sold PillPack, built Amazon Pharmacy, and started @GeneralMedicine. We’ve spent most of our working lives trying to make getting healthcare easier. And somehow it still feels like we’re just getting started. We have incredible clinicians and treatments in this country. But finding the right care, figuring out what something costs, and actually getting it remains convoluted and complicated. Something that should have been a quick purchase becomes a project. Too often, people just put it off altogether. And when the problem is serious, all that hassle lands on top of what’s already hard. When transactions are easy, you take a whole layer of complexity off the table. We launched General Medicine a year and a half ago. A few weeks ago, we wrote about the idea behind it: healthcare needs a store. Helping Walmart build one for its customers is that idea reaching the scale we’ve been aiming at since PillPack. I love that we have our own store. We get to build things we’ve wanted to exist for years, hear directly from customers, and keep making them better. But I’m just as excited about helping other companies build theirs. We learned at PillPack how much more you can do when you work with companies that already serve millions of customers. Tech platforms, retailers, health systems, payers, and manufacturers all bring something different. There’s a lot more we can do together than any of us could do on our own. With Walmart, we get to work with a retailer and pharmacy that’s part of everyday life all across the country. This one is particularly special to me. We walked into Bentonville nine years ago hoping to build something together. It took a little longer than we expected, but here we are. Build the store. Then build more stores.
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as more of this data becomes public there will be a lot of handwringing about where historical returns came from in private markets remember this world no longer exists. it has been totally eviscerated by the intelligence trade. what got us here is no indicator of whats next
One of the more challenging questions in designing this methodology was how to accomodate for firms with one big hit. On one hand, you want to reward investors who consistently make good decisions, and eliminate luck from the equation as much as possible. On the other hand, venture capital is an outlier business and tripling or quadrupling down on a major winner should also be rewarded. So, the ranking uses a "consistency-adjusted" approach where 2/3 of the weighting is given to the portfolio performance with the biggest outcome, and 1/3 is given to the performance without that outcome. With this in mind, there are a few firms that stand out: @gigafund and @Pelion_VP are effectively 100% associated with one company each (SpaceX and Cloudflare), and @Lowercase is also highly concentrated (98% Uber). They maintain a high rank because of their relatively low capital at risk. @usv, @GreylockVC, @sequoia, @IndexVentures and @khoslaventures are amongst the least concentrated, which speaks to a legacy of many large outcomes influencing their performance. They maintain a high rank despite their relatively high capital at risk. More: top50.joinodin.com
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was able to have astra ultra one shot a toy 7k parameter LLM in minecraft using only redstone. genuinely impressive
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