Elizabeth Rose ⚘

Elon says money will become obsolete and energy will be the true currency. Half my timeline understood: "there won't be any currency anymore." It's the exact opposite. There will always be a currency. What's going to die is fiat money. And with it, the power of the people who print it. Quick masterclass on why. First, what is money? Money isn't wealth. It's a tool. It has three functions: unit of account (measuring value), medium of exchange (avoiding barter), and store of value (carrying today's work into tomorrow). At its core, money is a database. It records who produced what, and who has the right to consume what. It's a system for allocating human labor. And good money has one non-negotiable property: you can't create it out of thin air. Otherwise, it lies. For centuries, money was backed by something real: gold. Every banknote was a claim on a weight of metal. You couldn't print more than what you had in the vault. Then we dismantled it, piece by piece. In 1914, World War I. Countries suspend gold convertibility to finance the war on credit. In 1933, Roosevelt bans Americans from owning gold and devalues the dollar right after. In 1944, Bretton Woods. The dollar becomes convertible to gold at $35 an ounce, and every other currency gets pegged to the dollar. On August 15, 1971, Nixon "temporarily" suspends the dollar's convertibility to gold. That "temporary" measure has now lasted 55 years. In 1973, exchange rates float. Not a single major currency in the world is backed by anything physical anymore. Since 1971, the dollar has lost nearly 90% of its purchasing power. US federal debt has grown almost 100x. Housing prices have decoupled from wages. That's not a coincidence. It's the direct consequence of money with no physical limit. Now, central banks. A central bank does two things: it sets the price of money (interest rates) and it creates money. Two massive levers, in the hands of a handful of people nobody elected. When they keep rates too low for too long, they create bubbles, keep zombie companies alive, and push everyone into debt. When they print, they dilute your savings. The Fed's balance sheet went from roughly $900 billion in 2007 to nearly $9 trillion in 2022. The US money supply grew about 40% between 2020 and 2022. Result: 9.1% inflation in the US in June 2022, 10.6% in the eurozone in October 2022. Inflation is a tax nobody voted for. And it doesn't hit everyone equally: those closest to money creation (the state, banks, asset holders) get the new money first. Workers and savers get it last, after prices have already gone up. Now let's reason from first principles. If AI and robotics produce most goods and services, human labor is no longer the limiting factor of the economy. So a currency whose job is to allocate human labor no longer has a purpose. What stays scarce? Energy. Every physical good is matter transformed with energy. Every AI is computation, meaning electricity. With enough energy, you extract, you recycle, you manufacture, you reason. The natural unit of account of a robotic economy isn't the dollar. It's the kilowatt-hour. And this is where it gets beautiful: energy-backed money is tied to a real, measurable asset governed by thermodynamics. As Elon puts it, governments can print money, but they can't print energy. No more inflation manufactured by bureaucrats playing with the printing press. We go back to a standard. But this time, not a metal sitting in a vault: the very input of all production. My prediction: within the next ten years, the fiat monetary system will break. And with it, the grip that politicians and legacy bankers have on money. Elon is designing the new global economic order. Not a communist system: private property stays central. But capital will flow to those who best allocate energy to create more goods and services. A meritocracy of physics. That's what will bring us abundance. Money isn't disappearing. It's becoming honest again.

I made an unsettling discovery in my undergraduate class on financial planning last week. While explaining mortgages, I asked my 38 students this question: if you buy a $400,000 house and pay 20% in cash towards the purchase, what will be the amount that you finance? Not a single student could tell me the answer. Despite the fact that they are all juniors and seniors majoring in business. I added more questions: what is 30 percent of 80? 60 percent of 90? They didn’t know. The closest they got was when one student said, in response to my query of “40% of 70”, that “I know it’s 4 times 7 but I don’t remember what that is.” Another student helpfully added, “28.” They explained to me why they couldn’t answer these math questions: they were never taught multiplication tables, percentages or fractions during their K-12 schooling. Instead, they were taught how to use a calculator. Without one, they are not able to do basic arithmetic. I later asked the dean about this, and he lamented that this isn’t a thing just for our university’s students; it’s a thing for their entire generation, nationwide. When I was in K-12, the fierce debate among parents and educators was whether to allow calculators in class. The calculators won. Today, the debate is about AI. And like before, the tech will win. But will that truly be a victory? Rowan University #college #math #loans #CFP #financialplanning

Is the problem in U.S. housing right now home prices or mortgage rates? The answer is clear when looking at data back to 1890. It's real home prices that are way out of line with historical norms, roughly 90% above the long-term average. Meanwhile, 7% mortgage rates are well within the realm of normal. In fact, mortgage rates in the 1990s were 8-9%, and the market was healthy. The reason that home sales are at 2008 levels right now is because prices are too high, not because rates are north of 7%. Lower the home prices, and buyers will come back into the market. Check to see if prices are already dropping your ZIP at reventure.app/map.

🚨 INFLATION IS MUCH WORSE THAN THE 3.4% CPI NUMBER MAKES IT LOOK. Since the Iran war started, the prices behind daily life have moved sharply higher: Heating Oil: +95% Diesel: +70% Rice: +52% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Gasoline: +49% Brent Crude Oil: +43% Oats: +31% Cotton: +25% Sugar: +25% Wheat: +22% Corn: +21% Palm Oil: +19% Soybeans: +12% And this is where it gets worrying. These are not random commodities. They feed directly into fuel, transport, farming, food production, and household costs. So while official CPI is still around 3.4%, consumers are seeing much bigger price pressure in the things they actually use every day.

BLUE = Local home prices are currently ABOVE their 2022 peak YELLOW = Local home prices are EQUAL to their 2022 peak RED = Local home prices are currently BELOW their 2022 peak via ResiClub Terminal resiclubterminal.com/

@BrianEntin ran a story on @NewsNation about a family of 6 living in a tiny camper and a tool shed in Barnardsville, NC after losing their home to Helene. @EmergencyRv volunteers decided that they deserved better. A donor from Maryland called and said “I have a beautiful 5th wheel camper to donate so find me a family”. A family from NC who adopted two donkeys from Peaceful Valley Donkey Rescue @donkeyrescue said “God has called us to help you and we have big truck and can tow huge 5th wheels from anywhere…how can we help you help a family for Christmas?” The timing and symbolism wasn’t lost on us. We told them both that we believe in Christmas miracles and God is making one happen here so let’s do this and we did. Why do we spend countless hours and sleepless nights @EmergencyRv trying to help families with adequate shelter? This is our WHY. Help us help more families. We are all volunteer 501c3 and need your help to help more families. Merry Christmas 🎄❤️ givebutter.com/EmergencyRV

Honest question: What's actually different heading into 2025 than it was a year ago? Why are home builders, RE agents, economists, etc. more bullish about home sales? The 30-year fixed is close to being at the very same levels, home prices haven't come down, wages might be up some, but it's not day and night better. What has really changed between then and now to make folks more optimistic? Is it mainly just the expectation mortgage rates might move even lower in 2025? That the worst is behind us? The mortgage industry specifically was told to "survive 'til 25" but why? What's going to change in 2025?

Kamala Harris said "Donald Trump gave tax cuts only to the ultra wealthy" I analyzed actual IRS data from 153.8 million tax returns filed to understand whether that's true. Here's what you need to know:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have just increased their appraisal waiver programs from 80% to 90% LTV/TLTV. This means more home buyers will be able to put just 10% down and avoid the expense and waiting period of a traditional appraisal. These waivers allow lenders to underwrite loans without an appraisal, using historical data and public records instead. In addition, the pair's more robust inspection-based appraisal waivers will allow LTVs as high as 97%, meaning just 3% down w/o an appraisal. Freddie Mac says the move will help lower-income borrowers, including many first-time homebuyers. Fannie Mae says, "Responsibly increasing the eligibility for valuation options that leverage data- and technology-driven approaches can also help reduce costs for borrowers." The changes are expected to go live in Q1 2025. To date, Freddie Mac’s ACE waivers have saved borrowers more than $1.63B in appraisal fees, while Fannie Mae's appraisal alternatives have saved more than $2.5B. Perhaps not good news for appraisers. But faster, cheaper, and easier closings for home buyers.

The tower has caught the rocket!!