美国6月非农只有5.7万，大幅低于预期，9 月加息概率从约 66% 降到 53.5%，黄金单日上涨约 2.3%。 注意，黄金从3月份初开始的下跌过程中一直有反弹，非农只是给最新的大阳线提供了一个解释，市场总喜欢在价格动了以后补一个理由。这证明不了中期多头趋势已经回来。 24 年，黄金涨了 25.5%。当年全球央行净买入约 1,045 吨黄金，连续第三年超过 1,000 吨；黄金 ETF 全年持仓接近持平。 25 年，黄金又涨了 67%。这一年央行继续买入约 863 吨，全球黄金 ETF 增持约 801 吨，是历史第二高。 这两年的上涨发动机还不完全一样： 2024 年主要靠央行、场外资金和地缘避险扛住高利率压力；2025 年 ETF 大规模回流，美元走弱、收益率下降和避险资金一起加速。 所以黄金并不存在“加息就跌、降息就涨”这么简单的公式。 接下来如果要博一波大的反弹，消息面需要关注黄金买盘有没有换挡： 1. 加息概率、美元和实际利率继续下降，短线压力减轻； 2. 黄金 ETF 从流出转为连续流入，金融资金重新进场； 3. 央行购金维持高位，长期买盘没有断。 只有第一条，行情更像利率驱动的反弹。第一条和第二条同时出现，反弹才可能延续。三条一起出现，黄金才重新具备走中期趋势的资金条件。利率决定短期踩油门还是踩刹车，ETF、央行和场外资金决定黄金有没有续航。 技术面多头会在短期回踩4000美元的情况下，吃一波周线反弹博弈，目标位置4400-4600。

知道为什么 Visa、Stripe、万事达卡、贝莱德这些公司愿意加入 $OUSD 吗？ Circle 2025 年总收入约 27.47亿美元，其中96%来自 $USDC $EURC 储备产生的利息，简直是坐着数钱。 稳定币公司拿用户存进来的美元配置短期美债等储备资产，再赚取利息。Circle 去年为渠道支付的成本高达 16.62 亿美元，而这些渠道都出现在 $OUSD 推出名单上。。。 据说这一次是除了Circle以外的所有支付公司、所有加密生态、所有金融机构都合作要搞这个新的稳定币，Circle直接被边缘化。 现在唯一的变数就是 $ousd 还没正式推出。。

市盈率2万多倍！中科飞测这公司即将创造历史。 2万多倍的市盈率，知道这意味着什么吗？如果这家公司保持现在的赚钱速度，并且把赚到的钱一分不剩地全部回馈给股东，股东需要2万多年才能回本！ 现在的AI市场相关题材太疯狂了！

关于 Binance 撤回了MiCA 牌照申请的事情，你需要知道的是这只是币安一个交易所的问题，不是行业的问题。 Coinbase、Kraken、OKX、Bybit 早在这之前都拿到了 MiCA 牌照。Binance 的之前跟美国的那点事和引以为傲的规模成了这一次合规持牌的阻碍。

Beyond $Bitcoin: The New Market Spectacle Chasing Trillion-Dollar Valuations.

Cape Verde holding Spain and Uruguay has made the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion race way more interesting. France, Argentina, Brazil, Spain… every champion pick has a real argument now. 500 USDT prize pool makes the call even spicier.

The meme coin portfolio of crypto influencer Murad Mahmudov, who has actively invested in and promoted the idea of becoming extremely wealthy through meme coins since 2024, has lost 85% of its value. At its peak, the portfolio was worth $67 million.

Michael Saylor said he might burn his 17,000 BTC when he passes away just to make the rest of us richer. What a king. But honestly? If I had 17,000 Bitcoins, I’d stop at 16,900. Let me keep 100 for my kids and friends, please and thank you.

There is a tempting idea that every industrial revolution eventually ends in a major war... I do not think the history is that clean. The First Industrial Revolution overlapped with the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars, but it did not simply cause them. Industrialization probably helped Britain win more than it created the war itself. The Second Industrial Revolution is the case that makes the theory feel convincing. Mass production, excess capital, resource competition, weak demand, bubbles, then crisis. At some point, economic stress stops staying economic. But the information revolution did not produce a world war. That matters. Maybe nuclear deterrence changed the game. Maybe globalization made total war too expensive. Maybe proxy wars and regional conflicts became the system’s ugly pressure valve. So I am skeptical of the idea that AI automatically leads to World War III. Local wars, sanctions, arms races, supply chain fights, chip restrictions? Much more likely. The bigger question for the AI cycle is simpler: global capital is building a huge new layer of productive capacity. Who is supposed to consume all of it?