4 billion people could be dead in the second half of the 21st century - Institute of Actuaries
Joined February 2026
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What's an acceptable number of deaths?
The number comes from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' Planetary Solvency report, which places mass death at over 4 billion in the worst-case risk category for 3°C of heating.
🧵 1/5
Things keep getting worse. Mass death at 3°C of warming may happen if nothing changes.
Come along to our next international call, November 18, to find out how you can get involved: 4billiondead.org/NovemberCal…
STAY INFORMED - go to 4billiondead.org
THERE ARE NO WORDS.
1. THE BOTTOM LINE
Liberals and reformists can cherry pick all they like to claim that we are bending the curve on emissions, but actually...
Global carbon emissions:
1975 – 16.0 gigatons (billion metric tons)
2000 – 25.0 gigatons (56% increase in 25 years)
2026 – 42.4 gigatons (70% increase in 25 years)
In reality, the situation is totally fucked - because they failed for 40 years, they are failing now, and they will continue to fail.
Only a revolution can save us now. Stop the denial!
counterpunch.org/2026/10/23/…
4 Billion Dead retweeted
1. THIS IS NOT THE 2008 CRISIS.
The delusion of post-modernism is the delusion of humanism. That the world is only the human world. That there is nothing outside our control - the sovereignty of human subjectivity. Nature is seen as merely an extension of this monstrous ego.
Nature is not an extension of us - it is us that are subject to Nature.
2008 was in the human realm. "Money" is a function of human psychology. We can change "money" and sort things out - till next time.
When the insurance industry collapses - and it will - we will not be able to fix "the problem" because the problem is Nature - physics is independent of human control. We fucked it. We cannot unfuck it. And Nature does not give a fuck.
This is so basic only an elite so utterly cut off from what it means to live a human life would be unable to see it.
theguardian.com/commentisfre…
4 Billion Dead retweeted
A green light for the Jackdaw gas field isn't the end of the matter
Far from it
Now we must make sure that the much worse Rosebank oil field doesn't see the light of day
Please listen to my @StopCambo call to @andyburnham to leave the Rosebank oil in the ground
Part of the iconic West Pier in Brighton, UK, collapsed this morning as Storm Austen has caused fresh food shortages, power outages and travel disruption.
Sign up for the next 4 Billion Dead international call on November 18th: 4billiondead.org/NovemberCal…
HOW MANY MORE WARNINGS DO WE NEED?
If this death toll was the result of a terrorist attack, the world would be up in arms
And remember, this is not the new normal
From the perspective of 2100, or even 2050, the summer of 2026 will be one of the coolest
theguardian.com/environment/…
STAY IN THE LOOP—go to 4billiondead.org
THERE ARE NO WORDS.
SO REVOLUTION IT IS THEN
Any brighter ideas on how to half emissions in a decade?
theguardian.com/environment/…
This is an act of mass murder.
People are already dying because of fossil fuels. Now the UK Government has locked in more deaths.
Join the 4 Billion Dead open call tonight at 7pm UK time, with Roger Hallam and Ruth Cerezo-Mota: actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
And so the cycle continues, as unlivable heatwaves, crop failure, empty supermarket shelves, starvation, collapse of public services, destruction of homes and mass displacement are a price worth paying for economic growth.
THERE ARE NO WORDS.
actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
"Nearly 1/3 of voters....would be less likely to vote Labour if it gives the go-ahead for more North Sea oil drilling"
"includes...1/3 of those who voted Labour [in 2024] and around half of 18 to 24y olds"
Environmentally ignorant AND politically inept
theguardian.com/environment/…
Tomorrow, 21 October, is 4 Billion Dead's monthly open call featuring Roger Hallam and climatologist Ruth Cerezo Mota.
Thousands have registered for these calls over the last few months, and 4 Billion Dead has groups started up in 10 countries now.
actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
TOMORROW, 7PM BST / 2PM EDT / 11AM PDT.
Sign up below:
actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
“We are, without exaggeration, facing a trajectory and impacts that will obliterate the possibility of human civilisation by the year 2100.” Professor Julia Steinberger.
Thousands are joining us each month. Join and act.
Next Public International 4 Billion Dead call Wednesday 21 October, 7pm BST
actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
Geneviéve Walker on last month's public call: "there's a greater than 70% chance the AMOC could collapse between now and 2050".
4 billion people could die if we pass 3°C of warming.
Thousands of people have been joining these calls. Sign up, Oct 21: actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
"They intended to close the border and point and shoot".
We are not prepared for what's coming. But we can be.
Over 1000 people signed up to hear Geneviéve Walker at our last international call.
Sign up for this month's call with Ruth Cerezo Mota: actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
Less than one week to go. Join Roger Hallam and Ruth Cerezo Mota at 4 Billion Dead's next public call.
21st October, 7pm BST. SIGN UP HERE:
actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
4 Billion Dead retweeted
1. PEACE IN OUR TIME
1938: Despite Hitler's flaws, this agreement is the most authoritative process to ensure peace in our time.
2026: "Despite these flaws, the IPCC is the most authoritative global body on climate science"
The two moments when the liberal class believed in the purest bullshit in human history.
theguardian.com/environment/…
We know what this means: BILLIONS OF HUMAN DEATHS.
Join Roger Hallam and Ruth Cerezo Mota to hear what is happening and what can be done about it | 21st October, 7pm BST:
actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
New paper by the World’s most prominent climate scientists shows rapid acceleration of human-caused warming, with a warming rate now that tracks to near 2.4°C by 2050, far faster than was expected, if it continues.
From paper: “We are witnessing the rapid destabilization of the Earth’s climate system. This is no longer a warning for the future; it is a diagnosis of the present. Earth’s life-support systems are being pushed beyond stable limits, with changes unfolding faster than our ability to respond. Human activities are driving profound shifts in the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere.”
Paper Link in replies… H/T @LeonSimons8 …
COMMUNITY MEETINGS
Come along to one of our meetings in Hackney (London, UK) over the next month, to find out how you can get involved.
Not based in Hackney? We plan to do 100 meetings around London in the next few months, more info soon.
Register now: luma.com/4BillionDead-Hackne…
THERE ARE NO WORDS.
Want to actually do something about this? Join 4 Billion Dead's public call with Roger Hallam and Ruth Cerezo Mota, 21st October, 7pm BST:
actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
To hear about this and more, join 4 Billion Dead's public call with Roger Hallam and Ruth Cerezo Mota, 21st October, 7pm BST:
actionnetwork.org/events/oct…
Having worked with the insurance and banking sectors for many years, this comes as absolutely no surprise whatsoever
Only a matter of time before the continuing explosion of extreme weather begins to take down major insurance companies
theguardian.com/commentisfre…
4 Billion Dead retweeted
1. IMAGINATION
Revolution is a function of prophecy - what ought to be becomes what is. Defeatism is a function of analysis - what is becomes what ought to be.
Before the French revolution there had been no major revolt in France for over a 100 years.
Before 1989 the continuation of the soviet system was "inevitable".
Before 2027 the UK had not had a revolution for three centuries...
theguardian.com/commentisfre…
