Fourth & Expected Value (@4thAndEV) header
Fourth & Expected Value (@4thAndEV) profile picture
Joined June 2026
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The 2026 NFL season brought unprecedented levels of scoring in Week 1. A total of 791 points were scored this week, tied for the most in Week 1 in the Super Bowl Era. Why? Red Zone TD Conversion Rate. My newest video dives into this and if it’s predictive of what’s to come.
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Start guys behind LOS so they can get a running start at the point of catch or release off the line…this will get more widespread after this. Wait till guys start motioning like this too
An interesting play by the Lions for the first down. 📺: FOX/FOX One
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You see what the Lions just did on 3rd & 8 with Amon-Ra St. Brown 👀 @RyanPaganetti
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Fourth & Expected Value retweeted
Stats & Scheme topic this week: Blitzing is Back: - Defenses are blitzing more previous seasons - Blitzing is the most effective it’s been in 5 seasons - More defenses are playing two high + zone behind their blitzes - Blitzes on 3rd & 7+ have been *very effective* this season - DB + LB blitzes have been lethal for opposing offenses
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That’s what happens when u go for it on 4th down
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Punt at exactly the 50 yard line after that false start 👀👀 #NEvsSEA
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My guess as to which teams sign Slayton as a Giants fan: Dolphins Raiders Chiefs Saints #NoModelNeeded
Giants release WR Darius Slayton.
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Claude Code built a live fantasy football draft strategy app that connects to Sleeper leagues with their public API. I walkthrough the app and also the metrics that were built, including the one that is the most helpful when drafting in real time. Video on it out NOW🎥
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Fourth & Expected Value retweeted
NEW video out now looking at 4th down decision making in the NFL, it’s history, how the math works out, and what’s left for optimization (hint: there is still at least one hidden edge left) 👀 LINK in Bio 🎥 #4thAndEV
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NEW video out now looking at 4th down decision making in the NFL, it’s history, how the math works out, and what’s left for optimization (hint: there is still at least one hidden edge left) 👀 LINK in Bio 🎥 #4thAndEV
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Examining four of the most polarizing 4th down calls from the 2025 @NFL Playoffs in my next video… Subscribe to watch it first 🎥 #4thAndEV
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Drop a comment if you want to see your favorite NFL teams analytical report card from the 2025 season ⬇️
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First Video out NOW💥 Expected Points Added (EPA) - @NFL Holy Grail Metric Link in the bio 🎥
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