Certified Mortgage Advisor, Downs Mortgage Group @ Vellum Mortgage. DC, MD & VA housing data and opinions. Interests: Markets, Observations, Fitness NMLS 476406

Washington, DC
Joined November 2020
Ok - a few of you convinced me to put Claude Code on my desktop (backup computer I never use)…and now I need to rewrite all my calculators apparently. lol. It’s found so many little errors and provides many good recommendations. Why is the desktop app so different than online?
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Without me really telling it what to do, it scrubbed all the calculators I built in the past six months, highlighted all the little things wrong and then asked to rebuild them all. It was crazy…
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John Downs retweeted
Replying to @AdvisorJohn
right...it's not a blip when Amazon, Nestle, Boeing, Raytheon, StarKist, CoStar and so many others have relocated or grown their HQs to Virginia in past decade I mean just look at all those NoVa zip codes in the top percentile YoY as many places soften
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In the past few days, I've had two offers go in on properties that were recently taken off the market. In both cases, the sellers planned to rent the property, which is more evidence that they aren't under pressure to drop prices and would rather hold on to it.
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John Downs retweeted
Three things I don't love about the current market set up: 1) Hyperscaler credit spreads have broken above their July (Leopold Liquidation) wides (chart below). 2) Index momentum has stalled and entered a consolidation. 3) Financials/Staples ratio falling apart.
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The only one I didn’t know was the red guy.
best use of AI I've seen this year
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This is interesting!! Although those values on Monopoly never seem to go down...rents are always stable...and you never need repairs. So, not entirely the best thing to follow...but it's not too far off from sound advice.
Someone had a computer play Monopoly 312 million times to find the best strategy. The winning bot won 43% of games. Its strategy: buy every property you land on, never hoard cash, and take out mortgages to get three houses as fast as possible. Pretty sure it works outside the board game too 👀
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It's behind a paywall, so I couldn't see exactly what was said... but if the proposal is what is in that picture, it is nothing worse than that. How environmentalists think oil and gas are bad, but this is good, is beyond me...
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It is 100% getting worse with money leaving Maryland. In the past six months, I know 12 people who have left with aggregate income > $15m per year, with the lowest income being $600k/year. In all but two cases, they kept their MD business/lifestyle and home yet "live" in tax-free states.
Maryland is 5th WORST. Money is LEAVING Maryland. This data is from 2023 (IRS). But since then, Annapolis has raised taxes/fees by BILLIONS of dollars. A new state payroll tax will take effect in January (FAMLI). What is Annapolis doing to stop people/$$$ from moving out?
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My bet is that you will start seeing more stories like this soon. Not only is DC getting cheaper from a commercial RE standpoint, but residential rents are also flat/down, and real estate has fallen quite a bit in value in 2/3rds of the city. That's a good combo for employers.
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I'm not in the "far worse" camp for my market (DC-MD-NoVA). DC has been a 💩 show for four years now; NoVA will pause, but the local economy is doing very well. MD will be mixed, but it's mostly a buy-and-die region, so it's likely more stable. By spring, these rates will be normal...some modest rebalancing in pricing, and then we'll get back to selling virtually no homes, as we have in the past few years, in a sideways-value market.
The housing market is frozen. Mortgage rates are not coming down anytime soon. So, prices need to fall. Builders are giving the best incentives in years to get buyers. It will get far worse for housing before it gets better.
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10x Harder...followed by massive paralysis and confusion, saying to yourself, "Now, wtf did I just build...and who does what...and when should I use this again...I need to start over, I did this wrong..."
hot take: AI makes you work 10x harder.
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One thing I find funny about working with AI is when it says it would be amazing if I hooked up my email. Then, when I ask about security, it says absolutely don't do that because it's not secure...same for banking and personal docs, like helping me with taxes, etc.
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I think @girdley is 100% correct here. I think authenticity is becoming increasingly rare in messaging apps. Even reels are now highly scripted; nothing seems natural...and Ai copy is just so incredibly obvious!
My fundamental thesis on social media now: People are hungry for authenticity. Resist the urge to have a bot/AI build your posts. Zero of the accounts you admire do that. I promise.
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Wow - this looks pretty cool! Downtown around the monuments is really awesome.
Just DC casually looking like a painting. 🌀💗 📸: val.proudkii / IG #Only1DC
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Ugh - just got word one our top high school Lax girls who is just entering her recruiting fall season tore her ACL. Such a heartbreak for a kid who has been waiting for this year for so long. Just to be pulled from the sport, tossed into recovery. Last year, two of our girls still got recruited - one to Virginia Tech, and another to Richmond…so hope still exists, but still feel so bad for her and the family.
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It’s wild to me to see many people I know who are highly paid employees and business owners moving to Florida for tax reasons. They still run their company in Maryland/DC…track days, keep receipts, etc to save on state income tax. Someone I’m helping with a mortgage now will have a mortgage of $5k per month, but will save about the identical amount in MD income tax. Interesting.
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I haven't seen AI replace workers in the sense that a business said, "I no longer need you because AI does your job..." but I've seen plenty of "No, we don't need to hire anyone new, because our current people can do it with AI."
Microsoft offering 60k employees buyouts... AI's impact on the labor market is going to be a big topic next year. Crazy that the Fed's September SEP forecasts steady (4.1%) unemployment through 2028.
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I feel so bad for this one realtor I know... she's been working with a Zillow buyer since mid-2024. She's toured many houses, written a few offers...and today she is still paying that juicy Zillow referral fee.
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Surprising! Inventory in the housing market just surpassed the 2019 levels, nationally, for the first time. (2019 is only a baseline because it was the last "normal" market, so that's why this is notable.)
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