Alpha rumero

YESTERDAY I WARNED ABOUT WHAT COULD HAPPEN AFTER THE US MIDTERMS. NOW LOOK WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Saudi Arabia has come under attack. The US is pulling diplomatic personnel out. And oil has just surged above $111 a barrel. I think something VERY significant is developing here. Let me explain. We've got 12 days until the US midterm elections. Brent crude: $111.64. WTI crude: $99.39. US inflation: 3.7%. And now Reuters is reporting that Iran-aligned Houthi forces have struck targets in Saudi Arabia, including an airport and an oilfield. People have been killed. Washington has ordered non-essential diplomatic personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia. Think about what's happening here. For weeks, markets have been trading on the possibility of a US-Iran peace deal. Every positive headline has brought hopes of lower oil prices. Every setback has pushed energy prices back up. But something has changed. WE'RE NO LONGER JUST TALKING ABOUT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. We're talking about attacks on infrastructure inside one of the world's largest oil-producing countries. And that's a potentially MUCH bigger problem for energy markets. Because even if Washington and Tehran eventually reach an agreement, what happens if attacks on infrastructure and shipping continue elsewhere in the region? A peace agreement doesn't automatically remove every risk to global energy supplies. Now, here's where this gets interesting. Donald Trump has an election in 12 days. Iran knows the political pressure he's under. Reuters has already reported that Iranian officials see prolonging negotiations as a way of weakening Trump politically. And now we've got another escalation involving Saudi Arabia. The political clock is ticking. But I want to take this one step further. Because I think the BOND MARKET could be where the next major signal comes from. Remember what happened recently? US inflation came in at 3.7%. Treasury yields initially surged. The dollar rallied. Then something fascinating happened. Investors started buying US government bonds. Treasury yields reversed lower. Why.... Because inflation wasn't the only concern anymore. Investors were becoming increasingly worried about economic growth and what sustained high interest rates could do to the wider economy. Now throw another potential energy shock into that equation. If oil keeps climbing, inflation expectations could rise again. That creates more pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy restrictive. Potentially supporting Treasury yields and the dollar. But there's another scenario. What if the escalation becomes so serious that investors start worrying MORE about economic damage than inflation? Equities come under pressure. Capital moves towards safer assets. Treasury demand increases. Bond prices rise. Yields FALL. And suddenly the market reaction looks completely different. That's what I think traders need to understand. THE SAME OIL SHOCK CAN PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT MOVES IN THE DOLLAR, GOLD AND TREASURY YIELDS. It depends on what investors are most concerned about. I've spent 18 years following these markets, and I can tell you that understanding this distinction is incredibly important. Now here's my bigger concern. We're approaching November the 3rd. And instead of seeing a clear path towards de-escalation, we're now seeing attacks involving Saudi Arabia and the withdrawal of US diplomatic personnel. What happens if we reach the midterms without a peace deal? And what happens if the political calculations change AFTER the election? I'm watching three things very closely. OIL. TREASURY YIELDS. THE US DOLLAR. If oil continues higher and yields start climbing aggressively, renewed inflation fears could be taking control. If oil rises but yields keep falling, the market may be telling us something much more concerning about economic growth. And if negotiations suddenly produce a credible agreement, we could see a very sharp reversal in some of these moves. But here's my biggest thought. THE MARKET ISN'T JUST PRICING THE POSSIBILITY OF PEACE ANYMORE. IT'S HAVING TO PRICE THE RISK OF A WIDER REGIONAL ENERGY CRISIS. And with the US midterms just 12 days away, the timing could hardly be more significant. I don't think traders should underestimate what's developing here. Bookmark this. Because the next major move in oil, bonds and the dollar could tell us far more than the political headlines. And I want to ask you something.... Can Trump realistically deliver lower oil prices before November the 3rd while the conflict continues spreading across the region?

Brent Oil Price $110 on Saudi Attack | Gold & Forex LIVE Trading | London Session w/ Ken & Joel nitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1DGLdZlNZ…

UK CPI Day + Brent at $110 | LIVE Trading GBPUSD, Oil, Gold | London Session w/ Ken & Joel nitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1vJpPNbDA…