Alpine

A huge print is starting to come into view. We’re obviously not there yet, not even close, but the eventuality is taking shape. Traders should be developing a gameplan in advance -- things to keep on the screen and an understanding of historical precedent. Before a print happens, there can be a window in which inflation protection can be bought cheaply, because protection initially gets sold along with everything else. A good template for this (and everyone should get familiar with it) is gold’s decline in mid-late 2008, then its surge over the next few years as the Fed’s policy response to the crisis took hold. And note: In 2008, gold bottomed before stocks. The main questions in these situations are timing and price: How long does the window stay open for acquiring protection before a policy response takes hold, and how cheap does protection get? Big prints are rare (and history doesn’t repeat exactly) so there are no set answers or rules. Gold and BTC may have already seen most of their selling. But if opportunities do develop, investors with dry powder will be best positioned to take advantage of them (as always).