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TESLA AFTER A SPACEX IPO
Many analysts assume a static pie — i.e. a scarcity mindset. They think a SpaceX IPO hurts Tesla longterm by splitting Elon’s (and investors’) attention. They somehow forgot that Elon Musk built both Tesla & SpaceX simultaneously to trillion-plus valuations. Tesla has always been volatile, a SpaceX IPO is just this week’s excuse. Traders make money from volatility.
These analysts are ALREADY WRONG. Within 3 months of AJ’s doomsday 2/25 analysis, Tesla & SpaceX are deepening a mutually beneficial partnership. This isn’t a zero-sum game. Instead of each company remaining on a trajectory to be an $8 Trillion company, Elon Musk leveled up to a new 100 Trillion market cap goal.
Instead of competition between Musk companies and divided loyalty, Elon Musk has tasked Tesla/SpaceX/xAI with one audacious mission: remove the constraint of Earth and its limited resources by kick-starting a true Space Economy flywheel. Digital Optimus, the Terafab and AI Space Compute are just the start. A SpaceX IPO primes the flywheel with initial operating cash.
This is the biggest undertaking in human history — an investment opportunity that could exceed today’s Earth economy by 10x, 100x, or even 100,000x. What’s the actual limit once humanity goes galactic?
The “Elon Musk community” doesn’t split — it gets stronger as the mission converges.
🧵 Next, don’t ignore the early signals & kick yourself later
Remember Tesla investors wanting Tesla to buy xAI, or at least calling for a large investment? But we waited, and waited - and waited some more. Largely because of the Delaware courts.
HOW DID THAT WORK OUT FOR US?
Deal terms are a secondary consideration to -
GETTING THE DEAL DONE!
Do you want your investment dollars to be in a company that could be 8.5 Trillion in 10 years? OR:
Do you want the exact same dollars (the value DOESN’T diminish) invested in a company that could easily be worth 100 Trillion in 10 years?
Don’t lose the plot. Tesla and SpaceX together are worth more than the sum of the parts.
Elon Musk having to tip toe around Board’s is the process the be deleted
Tesla needs SpaceXAI, and SpaceXAI needs Tesla.
Having Elon tiptoe around products and potential conflicts of interest just to avoid upsetting boards and shareholders isn’t the way forward.
This is becoming even more important as Tesla and SpaceX projects increasingly overlap. Elon needs the freedom to execute his vision without constantly navigating these conflicts.
The merger needs to happen asap.
Amy retweeted
Fully agree with Amy.
Want to know HOW COSTLY the lack of expeditious movement is to Tesla investors? XAI is fully HALF of SpaceX’s earnings.
From the first principles standpoint - every Tesla investor gets the value of a company that owns the full physical SI stack. It exceeds the xAI value. It exceeds Tesla’s value. It exceeds SpaceXSI’s value.
Get the deal done. The time is NOW.
Together the companies are worth at least 10x more. Likely 100x - or even 1000x - more. They can create bigger products like the Terafab and Macrohard/Digital Optimus and AI Space Compute.
Amy retweeted
Amy is spot on.
We waited way too long to invest in xAI (thank you, DE Chancery Court).
Let's make sure we are not losing valuable time for this merger.
Merge already.
Remember Tesla investors wanting Tesla to buy xAI, or at least calling for a large investment? But we waited, and waited - and waited some more. Largely because of the Delaware courts.
HOW DID THAT WORK OUT FOR US?
Deal terms are a secondary consideration to -
GETTING THE DEAL DONE!
Do you want your investment dollars to be in a company that could be 8.5 Trillion in 10 years? OR:
Do you want the exact same dollars (the value DOESN’T diminish) invested in a company that could easily be worth 100 Trillion in 10 years?
Don’t lose the plot. Tesla and SpaceX together are worth more than the sum of the parts.
Amy retweeted
Want to know HOW COSTLY the lack of expeditious movement is to Tesla investors? XAI is fully HALF of SpaceX’s earnings.
From the first principles standpoint - every Tesla investor gets the value of a company that owns the full physical SI stack. It exceeds the xAI value. It exceeds Tesla’s value. It exceeds SpaceXSI’s value.
Get the deal done. The time is NOW.
Together the companies are worth at least 10x more. Likely 100x - or even 1000x - more. They can create bigger products like the Terafab and Macrohard/Digital Optimus and AI Space Compute.
Retail is overwhelmingly in favor of a Tesla/SpaceX merger.
Here the result of close to 9,000 accounts asked whether they are favorable of a merger of Tesla and SpaceX.
Sure looks convincing.
@Tesla @elonmusk @robyndenholm @KathleeWT @IraEhrenpreis @jgebbia @kimbal
@SpaceX @Gwynne_Shotwell @AntonioGracias @d0nharrison @FutureJurvetson @rglein @roelofbotha
Amy retweeted
Yes the ship will sail if this process drags too long.
I am just saying that $tsla will get a fair value offer from $spcx. There are many retail investors who seem to be suggesting that we are giving the house away. I don’t agree with that. We can’t miss the forest for the trees here. Get the deal done!
Amy retweeted
A merger is the best scenario for both $TSLA and $SPCX investors. Do you want Elon's full attention - and to turn him loose with full control over the companies' execution for the future - or hand over control to a small, self-minded group of traders looking for their manipulated short-term gain?
Remember Tesla investors wanting Tesla to buy xAI, or at least calling for a large investment? But we waited, and waited - and waited some more. Largely because of the Delaware courts.
HOW DID THAT WORK OUT FOR US?
Deal terms are a secondary consideration to -
GETTING THE DEAL DONE!
Do you want your investment dollars to be in a company that could be 8.5 Trillion in 10 years? OR:
Do you want the exact same dollars (the value DOESN’T diminish) invested in a company that could easily be worth 100 Trillion in 10 years?
Don’t lose the plot. Tesla and SpaceX together are worth more than the sum of the parts.
Amy retweeted
Terafab will be the most epic chip-building exercise ever, producing one terawatt of SI compute annually
Join us tesla.com/careers/search/?si…
Amy retweeted
$TSLA 🤝 $SPCX
My take on where a merger lands:
The floor is ~$2T for TSLA. That's ~$506 a share, about a 30% premium.
With SPCX at ~$2.1T, that's close to a 50/50 merger of equals. Exactly where I'd want it.
Why $2T?
It's the first tranche of Elon's 2025 comp plan. In a merger it's judged on deal price alone. Hit $2T and ~35M shares unlock.
And here's a thought. Elon pledged a SPCX share to every kid in America next year, worth ~$10.5B. That first tranche would be worth ~$18B.
Wouldn't surprise me if the shares that unlock at $2T end up funding the kids' Trump Accounts 👀
$TSLA 🤝 $SPCX
TSLA closing in on $389.
So what?
~30% is a typical takeover premium. At $389, that's ~$506 a share.
$506 x ~3.95B shares = $2T
That's exactly the first tranche of Elon's 2025 comp plan. In a merger the operational milestones drop out, and each tranche is judged on market cap at the deal price alone.
Under $2T, he earns nothing from the plan. At $2T, he unlocks the first ~35M shares.
Precedent: when Tesla bought SolarCity in 2016, its first offer was a 21-30% premium. Elon recused, and 85%+ of the shareholders other than Elon approved it.
His incentive starts right where a fair premium for Tesla begins.
Amy retweeted
Tesla - SpaceX
Here is the plan, give us a couple of days to set it all up.
1. Shareholder letter to Independent Directors of Tesla (will send survey to sign before end of week). @Amy787
2. Let's use the Dec 3 vote to prepare the next one (will send out surveys soon):
a) gather information who could vote easily, will help others to choose recommendable brokers
b) gather information who signed up and for which option for the Voluntary Retail Voting Program
c) understand who still has issues voting and try to solve these for the Dec vote. Make early and easy implementable recommendations to improve all for the second vote
Will need all of your help, so glad I can count on you.