Most Underrated Analyst & Full Time Trader 🎯
Joined July 2024
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This year I’m starting to take on my first 1:1 students. To get a feel for it, I’ll initially only accept people from Germany. Later I'll switch to international.
Happy new year 🎊
The Growth Paradox
Imagine a man who finally starts working on himself: therapy, books, journaling. A few months later he feels worse than before😵💫
He notices how often he lies just to avoid conflict. He sees why every one of his relationships ended in the same way. Small comments from his family now hurt more because he finally understands where they come from.
A friend looks at him and says: “Honestly? You seemed happier before.”
And part of him agrees.
That is the growth paradox.
Real growth often feels like everything is getting worse because the first thing it does is show you everything that has been going wrong.
In the 1970s Noel Burch described 4 stages through which we learn any skill.
In the first stage you don’t know what you don’t know.
In the second stage you become aware of it. That second stage is the most uncomfortable one and it is exactly where most people give up.
Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger found a similar pattern. I already explained this in my previous post.
People with the lowest levels of ability often overestimated themselves the most. The more they learned, the more clearly they could see their own gaps.
So someone who never questions themselves may feel perfectly fine.
Someone who is truly changing may feel lost.
That discomfort is not proof that your growth is failing.
It is proof that it has begun.
You cannot fix what you cannot see and seeing it clearly often hurts first.
Understand that pattern and you will make it 🤞
Around 25 years ago Dunning and Kruger conducted a series of experiments and found that the people who know the least often have the greatest confidence in their own abilities.
You probably know this phenomenon as the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Put simply if someone is incompetent they may also lack the ability to recognize their own incompetence. As a result they overestimate their abilities and believe they are better than they actually are.
What is less widely known however is the opposite phenomenon sometimes referred to as the reverse Dunning Kruger effect It occurs when you study a subject deeply research it learn and invest countless hours into understanding it. As your competence grows you become increasingly aware of how much you still do not know
Socrates is said to have been the wisest man in Greece because he recognized how little he actually knew
When you speak to genuine experts or professors in their respective fields you often notice how carefully and precisely they communicate. They speak with nuance, qualify their statements, and openly acknowledge uncertainty
People with little knowledge on the other hand often speak with extreme confidence. This pattern is especially visible in online debates. The loudest voices are often the least informed, while people with genuine expertise carefully formulate their statements, clarify definitions, and admit uncertainty.
The philosopher Bertrand Russell once said:
“The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”
The danger therefore is that modern society often rewards confidence more than competence. We confuse the loudest voices with the best voices.
But confidence is not the same as competence.
If someone is loudly and confidently running toward the edge of a cliff it is wiser to follow the person who actually knows the way
Apex
While everyone else is sitting around waiting exclusively for their crypto narrative on X we’re printing across multiple assets in the Discord 💎
Today again TP1 on our our $MCD spot buy is now up over 17%.
$SILVER long is now active ♨️
This week marks the seasonal bottom. We are now one day before the 10 year seasonal low and we have also seen a reaction on the lower timeframe
That means this zone is now active for scaling in
I will be buying spot here as well as taking a trade 💎
More details are in the discord 🚀
Around 25 years ago Dunning and Kruger conducted a series of experiments and found that the people who know the least often have the greatest confidence in their own abilities.
You probably know this phenomenon as the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Put simply if someone is incompetent they may also lack the ability to recognize their own incompetence. As a result they overestimate their abilities and believe they are better than they actually are.
What is less widely known however is the opposite phenomenon sometimes referred to as the reverse Dunning Kruger effect It occurs when you study a subject deeply research it learn and invest countless hours into understanding it. As your competence grows you become increasingly aware of how much you still do not know
Socrates is said to have been the wisest man in Greece because he recognized how little he actually knew
When you speak to genuine experts or professors in their respective fields you often notice how carefully and precisely they communicate. They speak with nuance, qualify their statements, and openly acknowledge uncertainty
People with little knowledge on the other hand often speak with extreme confidence. This pattern is especially visible in online debates. The loudest voices are often the least informed, while people with genuine expertise carefully formulate their statements, clarify definitions, and admit uncertainty.
The philosopher Bertrand Russell once said:
“The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”
The danger therefore is that modern society often rewards confidence more than competence. We confuse the loudest voices with the best voices.
But confidence is not the same as competence.
If someone is loudly and confidently running toward the edge of a cliff it is wiser to follow the person who actually knows the way
Apex
Binance Hack
How it happened
Think of the Binance wallet like a vault. Through Ethereum’s EIP-7702 feature the owner can give a program signed authorization to move funds from that vault.
The attacker submitted 50 signed authorizations, each with a different nonce. Because Binance constantly processes transactions that nonce keeps changing.
One of the authorizations matched.
That activated the attacker’s program and allowed it to move funds.
The key question is: where did the attacker get the valid signatures from? The correct nonce alone would not have been enough. Whether the private key was stolen or the signing system was abused is still unclear.
But to me this clearly smells like a regime from… it wouldn’t be the first time
That authorization also does not automatically disappear after the first transfer. It remains active until it is changed or revoked.
So the sequence involving the 50 authorizations is confirmed. How the attacker obtained the required authorization remains unresolved.
$XRP A lot of requests for XRP
For me XRP has a lot of open zones that we could still move into. That makes it extremely risky from a purely technical perspective.
I’m not talking about fundamentals here.
If you asked me right now and I had to invest I would scale in from around $1 down to the $0.50 zone, with an average entry of roughly $0.75. If all of those zones were filled, that would give a very strong risk reward.
That would be my approach to XRP if I had to buy it.
$QUBIC That is also the reason why I call it a high risk bet but still keep it in the portfolio.
Even on slow days with little movement, it is still capable of pushing +14% in a single day like today. At the same time news such as security issues can cause it to crash extremely hard again.
Nevertheless from my perspective it still makes sense as a high risk bet.
$MCD MCD is already up around 7% since our spot buy ✅
Everything was shared transparently in the Discord 💎
