@ApplesAndBerry

The Mudwater Math guy. NFA. DYOR. Also just here for the ride and good vibes!

 San Francisco
Joined August 2021
  • Tweets3.7K
  • Following5.4K
  • Followers8.1K
927Media
#NewProfilePic
2
2
36
1/ Mudwater pack math, v7: rip or sell sealed? Short version: it's now basically a coin flip. Last update, ripping beat selling sealed by 0.13 SOL a pack. Today that edge is 0.05. On 14-day prices, sealed wins outright. 🧵
4
1
5
186
more replies
8/ The punchline: ripping is a lottery ticket that costs about what the pack sells for. If you love the gamble, rip. If you love the math, sell sealed and buy the singles you want.
1
8
9/ Caveats: 12h pack floor rebuilt from listings + sales (avg 0.759 vs live 0.780). Top-tier prices are thin (see 5/). Fees: 6% on both sides + $8 rip fee. Disclosure: I hold 0 sealed packs (ripped them all). I do hold Mudwater cards, including ones from that rip. NFA, just my spreadsheet. #Mudwater
6
Ripped my 12 Mudwater packs. Cost: 9.36 SOL (0.7/pack + $8 rip fee) Pulled: 120 cards, 2 Legendaries, a Prestige Foil, 11 foils Value after fees: ~19–22 SOL on recent sales That's +10 to +12 SOL. 4 cards did 76% of the work. The other 116 were moral support. #Mudwater
10
2
37
1,831
Thank you @BoredApeYC 🙌
4
22
538
My 7 best pulls across 10 packs 🫶
1
10
62
YOOOOO I JUST PULLED BACK TO BACK LEGENDARIESSSSS @BoredApeYC 🦍 🦍 🦍
8
2
29
772
Ripped 5 packs in one go. The other 3 are HEAT too:
1
92
Little video to commemorate the moment 🙌
34
1/ Happy Mutant Monday and welcome to Mudwater pack math for Monday 10/26 🎉 Last night ripping beat selling sealed by 0.17 SOL a pack. Since then packs bounced 10% and the edge shrank to ~0.13. On recent prices it's still rip. On 14-day prices, sealed now wins.
5
7
433
more replies
8/ Variance check. Legendaries hit ~4.5% of packs (1 in 22) and are 47% of 24h EV (was 40%). Monte Carlo at 14d prices: median rip nets 0.21 SOL, and 86% of rips net less than selling sealed (was 81%). The average says rip. Your one pack probably says ouch.
1
28
9/ Caveats: the 12h floor is a rebuild (cancelled listings are invisible). 24h EV leans on one Legendary Foil print. Fees: 6% both sides, $8 rip fee. Card trades down ~18%, so card prices can still catch down to packs. NFA, just my spreadsheet. #Mudwater
22
Load more