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Joined December 2024
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Can’t pin this as a highlight without having quoted it, so here’s a second chance for you to learn more about why we founded Arkansas Quant:
/ Inform fanbases with the complete picture, not just what the headlines sell
/ Minimize "eye-test" bias
/ Bring game theory to college athletics. Kiffin and Cignetti are two who actively apply game theory.
Meet the guys behind @ArkansasQuant and learn how they turned a hobby into helping the Hogs: bestofarkansassports.com/ark… #WPS
Andrew Zock was one of our top Transfer Desirables coming from an elite record setting performance in FCS. Andrew if you see this, you’re significantly underpaid.
Our @PFN365 highest-graded FBS EDGE this season:
Colin Simmons, Texas: 97.1
Princewill Umanmielen, LSU: 94.0
Xavier Esqillion, Georgia State: 91.4
Jordan Ross, LSU: 90.5
Mylachi Williams, Virginia Tech: 90.1
Andrew Zock, Toledo: 89.2
Tobi Osunsanmi, Indiana: 89.1
Garrick Ponder, Baylor: 87.6
Lamont Lester Jr., Colorado: 87.1
Wendell Gregory, Kansas State: 86.9
Takari Hickle, Oregon State: 86.7
Elisha Baldridge, FIU: 86.6
Darren Agu, New Mexico: 86.6
Blake Purchase, Ole Miss: 86.0
Tausili Akana, BYU: 85.9
Does this memo sound familiar? College athletics is the only industry where leadership can light $50M on fire with zero due diligence, drop a memo that reads like an Enron/Theranos shareholder letter before bankruptcy, and guilt-trip fans that if they don’t show up and support the student athletes that they should feel bad.
This is textbook Accountability Theater and PR gaslighting:
1. The emotional blackmail: "Things aren't fine, so pack the stadium or you're abandoning the student-athletes." They privatize the terrible financial decisions, then socialize the bill onto working-class ticket buyers.
2. The access loop: Leak "inside scoops" to friendly local beat writers to preach patience & tell fans it'll all be okay, insulating the very executives who squandered the war chest in the first place.
Zero fiduciary discipline with the money they already have, followed by copy-paste corporate memos demanding fans finance the next bad bet.
All while they have hidden narratives with conference commissioners to play a specific role in the conference to maximize Disney Inc.’s share price.
Cignetti-esque BoT, Athletic Directors, and Chancellors are a differentiator right now for smaller schools to disrupt the bluebloods.
Just to see your HC allow the OC to call an inside handoff or a reverse on 3rd and 9 the very next weekend after it hadn’t worked once in the 7 weeks prior to that or your HC allow the DC to keep sending the house each week when it’s repeatedly gets exposed by your conference opponents the 5wks prior…“he just needs more NIL wait til year 2!” yes we should unquestionably show up to support the program
Arkansas Quant retweeted
Modern HC resumes for 🐢 #Terps 🐺 #GoPack 🐻 #SicEm
1️⃣ Beats his roster's talent in year one and through low returning production.
2️⃣ OC and DC he’ll hire has too
3️⃣ 3-year deal max. (not likely, but goal is to prevent collecting a paycheck Y1 so that Y2 looks like progress even if it’s below program norms, then Y3 he performs to unlock an extension beyond original 5YR deal)
4️⃣ Built his roster via the portal
5️⃣ Rare to get new HC who has substantial increase in NIL waiting for him to use in portal, so emphasize 1 and 2
Eck? Danielson? Your pick? 👇
Note: pic is not intended to be reflective of the above 5.
#CFB #Terps #GoPack #SicEm #NCState
Modern HC resumes for 🐢 #Terps 🐺 #GoPack 🐻 #SicEm
1️⃣ Beats his roster's talent in year one and through low returning production.
2️⃣ OC and DC he’ll hire has too
3️⃣ 3-year deal max. (not likely, but goal is to prevent collecting a paycheck Y1 so that Y2 looks like progress even if it’s below program norms, then Y3 he performs to unlock an extension beyond original 5YR deal)
4️⃣ Built his roster via the portal
5️⃣ Rare to get new HC who has substantial increase in NIL waiting for him to use in portal, so emphasize 1 and 2
Eck? Danielson? Your pick? 👇
Note: pic is not intended to be reflective of the above 5.
#CFB #Terps #GoPack #SicEm #NCState
How do you prevent a Mike Elko from happening? Exceptional decision making for years and immediately after $75M guaranteed extension, replaced an elite OC with a nepo promotion who wasn’t proven and then retains Marcel when he had all the money to make a better OC and QB hire. Same for Dan Lanning’s OC hire? Zero repercussions for either of them making lazy, clearly foreseeable, and avoidable bad choices.
How do you prevent a Dabo from happening where they publicly get offended when their investors (fans and local media) ask them to make better decisions, and they say they don’t care if the portal or older players is a competitive advantage because they don’t believe in it, after the investors give them a 5YR+ extension?
Coordinators who pass #2, beating their talent year after year 👀
• Briles, South Carolina O: 6 of 8 seasons
• Klanderman, Baylor D: 6 of 7
• Nowinsky, New Mexico D: 6 of 8 (was on our DC wishlist this time last year)
• Potter, Boise O: 3 of 3
• Roper, NC State O: 2 of 2
Check any coach or coordinator ⬇️
cfbquant.com/coaches
Dabo hired Chad Morris, and is still standing by his personal bias against portal after all these years of it hurting him. Very similar malpractice as Randy Lawson, Ted Dickey, and Fryar’s approach to football at the University of Arkansas. Weaponized job security via the golden handcuffs the universities received when they signed these moral grandstanders to absurd contract lengths.
Rush Offense vs. Rush Defenses Faced
- 4+ Top 25 Rush Defenses Faced: Kentucky, Miss State, Ole Miss (4)
- Three Top 25 Rush Defenses Faced:, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan, Texas, USC, A&M
Rush Offenses who have faced 1 or less Top 25 Rush Defense
/ Notre Dame: 0 (2 top 50)
/ Louisville: 0 (1 top 50)
/ Texas Tech: 1
/ Cincinnati: 0
/ UCLA: 1
/ Kansas State: 0
/ Miami (FL): 1
…..
Missouri Rush Offense SoS
/ Opponent Allowed Rush EPA/Play: FCS, 48, 108, 43, 21, 23, 86
/ Opponent Allowed Rush YPG: FCS, 99, 56, 46, 40, 48, 94
Top 25 Rush Offense (Rush EPA/play) alongside Rush Defenses Faced and Remaining…
Top 25 Rush Defenses Faced
/ Miss State & Kentucky: 5
/ Ole Miss: 4
/ BYU, Tennessee, Auburn, Kansas: 3
/ Utah: 2
/ Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Liberty, Air Force: 0
Arkansas Quant retweeted
Arizona defeats Iowa State 39-3 and improves to 6-1
Best start in a season for the Wildcats since 2014🔥
QB EPA/Dropback vs. Pass Defenses Faced (thru wk8)
Pass defense slate faced ➔ remaining:
• USC (QB #2): #1 faced ➔ #14 left (battle-tested)
• Ohio St (QB #10): #90 faced ➔ #4 left (cliff)
• Indiana (QB #3): #5 faced ➔ #75 left (survived)
• Wake Forest (QB #14): #131 faced ➔ #99 left (cupcake)
• Washington: Slate #86 faced ➔ #3 remaining
• Missouri: Slate #84 faced ➔ #9 remaining
• Minnesota: Slate #80 faced ➔ #1 remaining
Tested vs. paper tigers thru Wk 8 🧵👇
We charted all P4 + ND passing attacks by EPA/dropback against the strength of pass defenses faced—and where their schedules go from here:
🎯 TESTED & ELITE (Legitimate Heisman/Playoff Contenders)
• USC: QB Play ranks #2 in EPA despite facing the nation's #1 toughest pass defense schedule (survived 3 Top 25 pass defenses)
• Indiana: QB Play ranks #3 against the #5 slate faced (4 Top 25 pass defenses seen)
• LSU: QB Play ranks #4 against the #4 slate faced (3 Top 25, 6 Top 50 pass defenses faced)
• Alabama: QB Play ranks #11 against the #13 slate faced
🧁 STRONG NUMBERS, SOFT SLATES (Paper Tigers?)
• Wake Forest: QB Play ranks #14, but slate faced is #131 out of 138 (zero Top 50 pass defenses faced)
• Arizona: QB Play ranks #24 against the #124 slate faced (0 Top 25 pass defenses)
• Ohio State: QB Play ranks #10, but has faced the #90 slate (only two Top 50 pass defenses seen)
🧱 SOFT START ➔ BRICK WALL (About to be Tested)
• Ohio State: Slate faced #90 ➔ remaining spikes to #4 (faces FOUR Top 25 pass defenses)
• Washington: Slate faced #86 ➔ remaining spikes to #3 (faces FOUR Top 25 pass defenses)
• Minnesota: Slate faced #80 ➔ faces the #1 hardest remaining pass defense slate (ALL 5 remaining opponents are Top 25 pass defenses)
• Missouri: Slate faced #84 ➔ remaining jumps to #9 (3 Top 25 pass defenses left)
📉 STRUGGLING AGAINST GAUNTLETS
• Texas A&M: QB Play ranks #120 against the #18 slate faced
• Maryland: QB Play ranks #121 against the #24 slate faced
• Michigan State: QB Play ranks #97 against the #2 slate faced
Full remaining schedule rankings and SOS quadrants in the reply below 👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball #Heisman
2026 Passing Offenses: Pass Defenses Faced vs. Remaining (thru Wk 8)
November will completely expose unproven passing games and reward QBs who already took their lumps:
🚨 THE MEATGRINDER (Toughest Remaining Pass Defenses)
• Minnesota (QB #99): #1 slate remaining — ALL FIVE remaining opponents rank in the Top 25 (#20, #2, #7, #12, #1)
• Rutgers (QB #65): #2 slate remaining (faces 4 Top 25 pass defenses: #6, #1, #14, #7)
• Washington (QB #53): #3 slate remaining (faces 4 Top 25 pass defenses: #14, #7, #20, #9)
• Ohio State (QB #10): #4 slate remaining (faces 4 Top 25 pass defenses: #9, #12, #14, #6)
• Oregon (QB #77): #5 slate remaining (faces 3 Top 25 pass defenses: #12, #11, #6)
• Michigan (QB #84): #6 slate remaining (faces 3 Top 25 pass defenses: #9, #2, #11)
📉 THE REALITY CHECKS (Soft Starts ➔ Brutal Finishes)
• Ohio State: Slate #90 faced ➔ #4 remaining
• Washington: Slate #86 faced ➔ #3 remaining
• Missouri: Slate #84 faced ➔ #9 remaining
• Minnesota: Slate #80 faced ➔ #1 remaining
🏝️ SURVIVED THE STORM (Smooth Sailing Ahead)
• Cal: Slate #3 faced ➔ drops to #113 remaining (0 Top 25 pass defenses left)
• Indiana: Slate #5 faced ➔ drops to #75 remaining (only 1 Top 25 left)
• Virginia Tech: Slate #21 faced ➔ drops to #102 remaining
• Georgia: Slate #25 faced ➔ drops to #83 remaining (0 Top 25 left)
Bookmark this chart to track which quarterbacks hold up through November.
#CFB #CollegeFootball #BigTen #SEC
Offense Rank vs. Strength of Defenses Faced (thru wk8)
/ Miss State has faced FIVE Top 25 defenses alone.
/ Miami, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest have faced two COMBINED.
/ Three Top 25 Defenses Remaining: Arizona, Arkansas, LSU, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Northwestern, South Carolina, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, USC.
/ Indiana, Georgia, and Alabama Offenses faced the toughest part of their Defense Schedule.
/ Missouri Offense has faced one top 40 Defense.
Offense Rank vs. Strength of Defenses Faced & Remaining (thru Wk 8) 🧵👇
We charted all P4 + ND offenses by EPA/play against the strength of defenses faced—and where their schedules go from here:
🛡️ SURVIVING THE GAUNTLET (Tested & Elite)
• LSU: Offense EPA #5 despite facing the #9 defensive slate in FBS (4 Top 25 defenses faced).
• Ole Miss: Offense EPA #6 against the #6 slate faced (3 Top 25 defenses, 5 Top 50).
• Alabama: Offense EPA #7 against the #7 slate faced (3 Top 25 defenses, 5 Top 50)
• USC: Offense EPA #8 against the #8 slate faced (2 Top 25 defenses, 5 Top 50)
• Georgia: Offense EPA #3 while facing the #21 slate (2 Top 25 defenses)
🧁 ELITE NUMBERS, SOFT SLATES (Paper Tigers?)
• Miami: Ranks #1 in the nation in Offense EPA, but has faced the #72 defensive schedule (only ONE Top 25 defense seen)
• Notre Dame: Offense EPA #4 against the #49 slate (only 1 Top 25 defense)
• Wake Forest: Offense EPA #20 against the #121 slate (0 Top 25 defenses)
• Arizona: Offense EPA #30 against the #113 slate (0 Top 25 defenses)
🧱 BRUTAL SLATES, BATTLE-TESTED
• Miss State: Offense EPA #15 despite facing the nation's #1 toughest schedule of defenses (5 Top 25 defenses faced).
• Kentucky: Offense EPA #25 against the #2 slate (4 Top 25 defenses)
• Oklahoma: Offense EPA #68 against the #4 slate (4 Top 25 defenses)
Full breakdown of the toughest and easiest remaining schedules in the reply below 👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball
2026 Offenses: Defenses Faced vs. Defenses Remaining (thru Wk 8)
The second half of the season is set to completely flip the script on several offensive units:
🚨 THE MEATGRINDER (Brutal Remaining Defenses)
• Minnesota (Off #116): Faces the #1 hardest remaining slate (3 Top 25 defenses; ALL 5 remaining rank in Top 50).
• Arkansas (Off #64): Faces the #2 hardest remaining slate (3 Top 25 defenses; ALL 5 remaining rank in Top 50)
• Michigan (Off #70): Slate faced was #12 ➔ remaining jumps to #4 (faces 3 Top 25 defenses)
• Texas (Off #46): Slate faced was #11 ➔ remaining sits at #8 (faces 3 Top 25 defenses)
• LSU (#5) & USC (#8): No breathers after top-10 front halves—both face 3 more Top 25 defenses down the stretch (#12 and #11 remaining slates)
🏖️ SURVIVED THE STORM (Smooth Sailing Ahead)
• Indiana (Off #11): Faced the #24 slate ➔ drops all the way to #75 remaining (only 1 Top 25 defense left)
• Georgia (Off #3): Faced the #21 slate ➔ drops to #47 remaining
• Alabama (Off #7): Faced the #7 slate ➔ drops to #51 remaining
• Wake Forest (Off #20): Slate faced was #121 ➔ remaining stays soft at #91
Bookmark this chart to track which offenses hold their ranking through November.