Strategic Plans Division, NCA. Views my own.
Islamabad, Pakistan
Joined October 2010
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At #INC2026 in Islamabad, SVI set four. My short answers:
1. Compellence. "Bharat cannot compel Pakistan." Turning an unverified allegation into war, while reserving the decision to strike, doesn't work.
2. Limited war. "The defender also has a vote, and Pakistan can again cast it decisively." Restraint is responsible statecraft, but "restraint is not endlessly renewable."
3. Entanglement. India's dual-capable missiles, precision strike, canisterisation, MIRVs, missile defence and sea-based forces are converging. "That is a shift from stability by fear to instability by confidence."
4. Technology. BrahMos brings all three risks together. "Radar cannot reveal payload or intent." Meaningful human control must stay central to military AI.
The conclusion: "South Asia is a nuclear flashpoint and here the true enemy is the belief in useful war."
Full speech in the reply. I first set out the BrahMos argument in my CISS essays and the wider frame in my FRS paper (link below).
#SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence
Reply 1:
Full session (my speech from 27:28): youtube.com/watch?v=GAylfaPx…
Reply 2:
FRS paper: frstrategie.org/web/document…
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
Transforming a short-term crisis-management mechanism (a 7-day reopening) into a resilient regional maritime architecture requires institutionalizing these informal channels.
Academic consensus suggests that sustainable conflict resolution in volatile chokepoints is most effective when driven by regional stakeholders who share long-term economic and security imperatives.
Thank you @dratiaalikazmi for highlighting the above-mentioned at this esteemed forum.
Regional ownership will further strengthen the role of Middle Powers as security providers and strategic stabilisers.
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
A pleasure to welcome Professor Kenoyer, from UW Madison & a leading authority on Indus Valley Civilization.
His work has made an invaluable contribution to bringing Pakistan’s rich archaeological heritage to audiences around the world.
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
Transforming a short-term crisis-management mechanism (a 7-day reopening) into a resilient regional maritime architecture requires institutionalizing these informal channels.
Academic consensus suggests that sustainable conflict resolution in volatile chokepoints is most effective when driven by regional stakeholders who share long-term economic and security imperatives.
Thank you @dratiaalikazmi for highlighting the above-mentioned at this esteemed forum.
Regional ownership will further strengthen the role of Middle Powers as security providers and strategic stabilisers.
#Iran #Security #stability #Gulf #IISS_MD26 @usembislamabad @RusEmbPakistan @ForeignOfficePk @CFR_org @ethrelkeld @clary_co @ciss_ajk
At #IISS_MD26 in Manama, I asked the GCC Secretary co-guarantor of the reported US–Iran draft framework, and turn a seven-day Hormuz reopening into a lasting regional maritime arrangement.
His reply: "Everybody talks to everybody… the amount of coordination is at the highest level."
Regional ownership is the best guarantee of peace. 🇵🇰 @IISS_org @B_Giegerich @AlArabiya #Hormuz #GPSF
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
At #IISS_MD26 in Manama, I asked the GCC Secretary co-guarantor of the reported US–Iran draft framework, and turn a seven-day Hormuz reopening into a lasting regional maritime arrangement.
His reply: "Everybody talks to everybody… the amount of coordination is at the highest level."
Regional ownership is the best guarantee of peace. 🇵🇰 @IISS_org @B_Giegerich @AlArabiya #Hormuz #GPSF
The acronym that named itself
Robert McNamara's doctrine was officially called just "Assured Destruction." Donald Brennan of the Hudson Institute, one of its critics, put "Mutual" in front so the initials would spell MAD. Robert Jervis later wrote that the term "was coined by a critic who sought to highlight how ludicrous the concept was." McNamara never liked the label but ended up using it himself. In 1998 he told CNN's Cold War series: "It's not mad, it's logical."
The Making of MAD, Air & Space Forces Magazine (John T. Correll, 2018), and The Dustbin of History: Mutual Assured Destruction, Foreign Policy (Robert Jervis)
airandspaceforces.com/articl…
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
Very well articulated essay exposing India's maritime ambitions while neglecting necessary safety protocols, and pushing for an uncalled for arms race in the region.
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
India’s expanding nuclear navy and continuous at-sea deterrence are quietly escalating risks in South Asia, casting further doubt on its "No First Use" pledge.
In a highly nuclearised environment, the delusion of a controlled conflict is the greatest threat.
Do not forget that "there is no space for war under nuclear overhang."
#Pakistan #indian #India #Nuclear #Deterrence #War
India's nuclear navy is the quiet escalation in South Asia.
In June 2026, @SIPRIorg estimated 12 Indian warheads deployed at sea for "occasional deterrence patrols."
That estimate is too low, and it arrives seven years late. Modi announced INS Arihant's first deterrence patrol in November 2018.
A concealed, ready launch platform means something different when it sits beside counterforce ambitions, missile defence and talk of pre-emption.
NCA Adviser Lt Gen (Retd) Mazhar Jamil told IISS on 13 October that continuous at-sea deterrence further weakens the credibility of India's no-first-use pledge, and that unannounced SLBM tests raise the risks of misperception and escalation.
May 2025 showed there is no safe band of war on land or in the air. There is none at sea.
In the Subcontinent, the true enemy is the delusion that war can be kept safely on a lower rung.
As Field Marshal Asim Munir put it, there is no space for war in a nuclearised environment.
My piece in @dawn_com: dawn.com/news/2039724/the-nu…
#SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence #IndianOcean #SSBN
India's nuclear navy is the quiet escalation in South Asia.
In June 2026, @SIPRIorg estimated 12 Indian warheads deployed at sea for "occasional deterrence patrols."
That estimate is too low, and it arrives seven years late. Modi announced INS Arihant's first deterrence patrol in November 2018.
A concealed, ready launch platform means something different when it sits beside counterforce ambitions, missile defence and talk of pre-emption.
NCA Adviser Lt Gen (Retd) Mazhar Jamil told IISS on 13 October that continuous at-sea deterrence further weakens the credibility of India's no-first-use pledge, and that unannounced SLBM tests raise the risks of misperception and escalation.
May 2025 showed there is no safe band of war on land or in the air. There is none at sea.
In the Subcontinent, the true enemy is the delusion that war can be kept safely on a lower rung.
As Field Marshal Asim Munir put it, there is no space for war in a nuclearised environment.
My piece in @dawn_com: dawn.com/news/2039724/the-nu…
#SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence #IndianOcean #SSBN
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
Want to know Pak's position... Listen to his speech at #INC2026.
A powerful breakdown of escalation risks, strat instability & emerging mil techs in S. Asia — & a clear message: regional stability comes from credible deterrence, not illusions of limited war.
At #INC2026 in Islamabad, SVI set four. My short answers:
1. Compellence. "Bharat cannot compel Pakistan." Turning an unverified allegation into war, while reserving the decision to strike, doesn't work.
2. Limited war. "The defender also has a vote, and Pakistan can again cast it decisively." Restraint is responsible statecraft, but "restraint is not endlessly renewable."
3. Entanglement. India's dual-capable missiles, precision strike, canisterisation, MIRVs, missile defence and sea-based forces are converging. "That is a shift from stability by fear to instability by confidence."
4. Technology. BrahMos brings all three risks together. "Radar cannot reveal payload or intent." Meaningful human control must stay central to military AI.
The conclusion: "South Asia is a nuclear flashpoint and here the true enemy is the belief in useful war."
Full speech in the reply. I first set out the BrahMos argument in my CISS essays and the wider frame in my FRS paper (link below).
#SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence
Reply 1:
Full session (my speech from 27:28): youtube.com/watch?v=GAylfaPx…
Reply 2:
FRS paper: frstrategie.org/web/document…
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
"Let me be clear: Bharat cannot compel Pakistan. Turning an unverified allegation into war while reserving the decision to strike doesn’t work."
@ArmsConAdvisor
At #INC2026 in Islamabad, SVI set four. My short answers:
1. Compellence. "Bharat cannot compel Pakistan." Turning an unverified allegation into war, while reserving the decision to strike, doesn't work.
2. Limited war. "The defender also has a vote, and Pakistan can again cast it decisively." Restraint is responsible statecraft, but "restraint is not endlessly renewable."
3. Entanglement. India's dual-capable missiles, precision strike, canisterisation, MIRVs, missile defence and sea-based forces are converging. "That is a shift from stability by fear to instability by confidence."
4. Technology. BrahMos brings all three risks together. "Radar cannot reveal payload or intent." Meaningful human control must stay central to military AI.
The conclusion: "South Asia is a nuclear flashpoint and here the true enemy is the belief in useful war."
Full speech in the reply. I first set out the BrahMos argument in my CISS essays and the wider frame in my FRS paper (link below).
#SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence
Reply 1:
Full session (my speech from 27:28): youtube.com/watch?v=GAylfaPx…
Reply 2:
FRS paper: frstrategie.org/web/document…
Ours are short wars, but short is not safe. India may start a crisis; it cannot reserve the response, escalation or termination. "It's an illusion that war can be started low, kept low, and stopped on command." #INC2026
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
Comprehensive, Spot on and thought provoking analysis.
Anyone interested in South Asian peace and stability must listen to it.
#Pakistan #Nuclear #Strategy #Stability #War #India @StimsonCenter @ACDC_ISSI @UNIDIR @UN_Disarmament @SIPRIorg @IISS_org @CarnegieEndow
At #INC2026 in Islamabad, SVI set four. My short answers:
1. Compellence. "Bharat cannot compel Pakistan." Turning an unverified allegation into war, while reserving the decision to strike, doesn't work.
2. Limited war. "The defender also has a vote, and Pakistan can again cast it decisively." Restraint is responsible statecraft, but "restraint is not endlessly renewable."
3. Entanglement. India's dual-capable missiles, precision strike, canisterisation, MIRVs, missile defence and sea-based forces are converging. "That is a shift from stability by fear to instability by confidence."
4. Technology. BrahMos brings all three risks together. "Radar cannot reveal payload or intent." Meaningful human control must stay central to military AI.
The conclusion: "South Asia is a nuclear flashpoint and here the true enemy is the belief in useful war."
Full speech in the reply. I first set out the BrahMos argument in my CISS essays and the wider frame in my FRS paper (link below).
#SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence
Reply 1:
Full session (my speech from 27:28): youtube.com/watch?v=GAylfaPx…
Reply 2:
FRS paper: frstrategie.org/web/document…
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
@ArmsConAdvisor delivers a powerful message at #INC2026:
"In nuclear South Asia, no war is truly limited, and no escalation is without consequences. Strategic wisdom lies in preventing war, not believing it can be controlled."
#StrategicStability #SouthAsia #NuclearRisk
At #INC2026 in Islamabad, SVI set four. My short answers:
1. Compellence. "Bharat cannot compel Pakistan." Turning an unverified allegation into war, while reserving the decision to strike, doesn't work.
2. Limited war. "The defender also has a vote, and Pakistan can again cast it decisively." Restraint is responsible statecraft, but "restraint is not endlessly renewable."
3. Entanglement. India's dual-capable missiles, precision strike, canisterisation, MIRVs, missile defence and sea-based forces are converging. "That is a shift from stability by fear to instability by confidence."
4. Technology. BrahMos brings all three risks together. "Radar cannot reveal payload or intent." Meaningful human control must stay central to military AI.
The conclusion: "South Asia is a nuclear flashpoint and here the true enemy is the belief in useful war."
Full speech in the reply. I first set out the BrahMos argument in my CISS essays and the wider frame in my FRS paper (link below).
#SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence
Reply 1:
Full session (my speech from 27:28): youtube.com/watch?v=GAylfaPx…
Reply 2:
FRS paper: frstrategie.org/web/document…
Zahir Kazmi retweeted
A compelling analysis at #INC2026, highlighting the growing risks of escalation, strategic instability, and emerging military techs in #SouthAsia.
A timely reminder that lasting regional stability rests on credible deterrence, not illusions of limited war.
#NuclearDeterrence
At #INC2026 in Islamabad, SVI set four. My short answers:
1. Compellence. "Bharat cannot compel Pakistan." Turning an unverified allegation into war, while reserving the decision to strike, doesn't work.
2. Limited war. "The defender also has a vote, and Pakistan can again cast it decisively." Restraint is responsible statecraft, but "restraint is not endlessly renewable."
3. Entanglement. India's dual-capable missiles, precision strike, canisterisation, MIRVs, missile defence and sea-based forces are converging. "That is a shift from stability by fear to instability by confidence."
4. Technology. BrahMos brings all three risks together. "Radar cannot reveal payload or intent." Meaningful human control must stay central to military AI.
The conclusion: "South Asia is a nuclear flashpoint and here the true enemy is the belief in useful war."
Full speech in the reply. I first set out the BrahMos argument in my CISS essays and the wider frame in my FRS paper (link below).
#SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence
Reply 1:
Full session (my speech from 27:28): youtube.com/watch?v=GAylfaPx…
Reply 2:
FRS paper: frstrategie.org/web/document…
