ashley

Important variables to consider when reading the Citrini post: 1. UBI all but guaranteed - debate will be on demand side with compute stipend vs universal basic services 2. US govt would aggressively move to ensure compute is US-centric and allows them to shift pain to ROW 3. Very likely robotics will be ramping by then which will soak-up recently fired knowledge workers to help build ramp 4. Credit markets are the bigger risk vs equities because potential for persistent deflation fuck debt calcs 5. Trump admin would deport 25m illegals before allowing knowledge worker migration to lower-end services turning into a deflationary wage spiral 6. Biotech and material science boom almost guaranteed by then driving spec capital and hiring 7. Out of every country on earth the American consumer is the richest, most resilient and most degenerate. If U.S. consumer is hurting the ROW is dead. 8. Datacenters will be bombed and molotov cocktailed long before things get that dire 9. Govt will be the lender of last resort to high FICO knowledge workers who got laid off 10. Cursor for Trades will be a thing and knowledge workers with AR glasses will be able to career shift far more easily than you would think 11. Disruption of incumbent knowledge workers will destroy demand for many of the denser urban pop centers and “fix” housing affordability crises as distributed work becomes a lot more acceptable …. Will also be a major wealth-effect issue into silver tsunami 12. Supply side taxation will become a thing. Tax on compute. Tax on electricity usage. Tax on racks. 13. Labs will not be allowed to “escape” to neutral jurisdictions. Go to Bahamas the U.S. will annex the Bahamas. This is too big to abide by international law. - just off the rip on first read 🫡