Correct me if I’m wrong but I think the US govt is forced to hyperinflate the dollar to keep progressing on AI compute because without it the debt becomes unserviceable. But if we crack it first, we lease it to the rest of the world (barring China because they’ll probably figure it out, they’ll never be able to catch up) and the dollar retains reserve currency status Effectively borrowing from the future to pay today. Ginormous risk but I don’t see any other way that isn’t the end of western hegemony / doesn’t result in full on collapse of the US Europe has hamstrung themselves, nothing was going to come from Africa / India / Rest of Asia with SI/AGI so it’s really just US vs China, two deeply intertwined economies The largest value prop of India / Africa is just giant droves of unskilled labor but the people aren’t worth very much and robots will replace all of them with farming / call center / menial third world tasks because an American farmer who can tell the robots what to do will be 100% more efficient than the native farmers who quite frankly aren’t very smart, and the workers who have horrible attitudes to work Advancements are progressing at breakneck speed and we seem poised to be the country to both colonize the stars + make thinking machines out of sand. The rest of the world either doesn’t have the infra, is stymied by regulation (Europe), or is just not very smart (India/Africa/everywhere else). Likely those same countries will want the material abundance AI produces as all of those areas are virtually untenable in 10-20 years due to pop growth and necessity of welfare (if we didn’t feed/give medicine/teach half the world, they’d starve to death on their own) and thus become vassal states of the US/China. Can kind of see this on a small scare with the influence the US has cultivated over Europe + the middle east, and China with Africa. But back to the original premise. If the US’s AI spend results in breakthroughs in farming/math/physics/robotics, the rest of the world will have to buy from us, and thus we’ve effectively mitigated the debt. In the meantime though, the inflation will hit everyday people the hardest, so to compensate they have to bring in migrants from third world countries to artificially lower wages and provide comforts (pick crops, deliver doordash, etc for pennies on the dollar) otherwise the population would revolt before being able to reap the benefit of this gamble. Unless I missed something/there are other explanations that make more sense in which case please correct me. Fascinating times we live in though

Systematic trend on $BTC, might be time for a bit of relief This is an old system though, will do a write up of the signals + logic in the next couple days for anyone interested (very rudimentary though)

Think the next wave of crypto trading infra moves away from memecoins / social trading, and likely ends up with professional grade research tools for crypto traders who want to take their talents into perps For too long bots / launchpads have been killing people with 1% fees, they’ll move to slightly better RTP venue like perps and trade vanilla long beta strategies that just track the market Perps / actual strategies will come back and usher in the next generation of CT influencers.

zoom out

bitcoin:native

Plumber supercycle

Could've been better

Might be a retard but it went to 45m on base, think it can do better on RH bringing back the defi summer infinite yield loop nostalgia back closed uni/cashcat longs to ape (unfortunately, knowing me this goes to 0 and cashcat goes to 1B so i get punished for chasing) 0x4d3f37a965b21ab4122e92dd41d2693e742c883b base:0x2a0a59d6b975828e781ecac125dba40d7ee5ddc0

Issue with funding arb, not that it’s not inherently profitable is that because it’s low hanging fruit it’s difficult to do it well (or so has been my experience) and scale it It’s endogenous + fee tiers and execution matter far more on CEXs because annualized funding rates aren’t the yield you’d get

Update from my last week alt post: base:0x0c1dc73159e30c4b06170f2593d3118968a0dca5: -30% ethereum:0x1bbe973bef3a977fc51cbed703e8ffdefe001fed: +20% ethereum:0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca: +24.7% ethereum:0x152649ea73beab28c5b49b26eb48f7ead6d4c898: +19% ethereum:0xfe0c30065b384f05761f15d0cc899d4f9f9cc0eb: +28% solana:6Vz16fvrGNKZ6B9Hka9KnZ7QkQMU8q8VUqZvzmqipump: -6% Considering the leverage wipe on ALTs not terribly dissapointed with this. 4x leverage on all made the week overwhelmingly positive. Added a minimum marketcap + volatility filter so we don't get chopped by microcaps so that will be good going forward Let's see how the new alt picks do in the coming week(s)!

Added: ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984 @ 4.39 ethereum:0xd533a949740bb3306d119cc777fa900ba034cd52 @ .335 ethereum:0x58d97b57bb95320f9a05dc918aef65434969c2b2 @ 2.633 Eyeing entries on ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061, solana:HZ1JovNiVvGrGNiiYvEozEVgZ58xaU3RKwX8eACQBCt3, ethereum:0x7fc66500c84a76ad7e9c93437bfc5ac33e2ddae9, ethereum:0x5a98fcbea516cf06857215779fd812ca3bef1b32 What coins do you guys like that I should consider?

Longed some cash-cat:native on HL Is 1B too low of a target? Send the cat @artsch00lreject cat coin supercycle

we shortened the retail memecoin rape cycle to minutes instead of days/weeks we’ve apparently also shortened the retail perp rape cycle to days instead of cycles not even 3 days in wow

Decided to go back to my roots and started testing a new basic alt screener, will be sharing the plays (win or lose) here. Would be interesting to see if we can catch sector rotations and bulletproof this before we get a persistent uptrend Bought some on Bybit perp: base:0x0c1dc73159e30c4b06170f2593d3118968a0dca5 @ 0.017949 ethereum:0x1bbe973bef3a977fc51cbed703e8ffdefe001fed @ 0.01399 ethereum:0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca @ 9.5 ethereum:0x152649ea73beab28c5b49b26eb48f7ead6d4c898 @ 1.5 ethereum:0xfe0c30065b384f05761f15d0cc899d4f9f9cc0eb @ 0.48 $ACE @ 0.224 Very low leverage on most, roughly equal weight

If tariffs make podcast equipment more expensive, crashing the global economy might be a necessary trade

on interest rates: - biggest long-term issue for U.S. finances is the national debt - rn, rates are too high for us to keep making interest payments on the debt - trump has been very vocal about wanting to lower interest rates - the fed isn’t j going to cut rates j bc Trump says so - trump has been extremely clear he’ll do whatever it takes to tackle the debt so like what can he do? - trumps been acting like a retard w the tariffs — announcing them one day, reversing the next, throwing around “Liberation Day,” etc - He also crashed the markets on purpose - also ramping up geopolitical uncertainty now like view this as if you were a shitty wealth advisor or a boomer managing their 401ks If they’re unsure about the market and they want safety, where are they gonna put move their money? - most stable is obv bonds - so you get a ton of bond buying pressure - bonds and rates work inverse, so… this accomplishes a couple things- - gives the Fed a reason to lower rates - still avoids the extremely inflationary shock of like the stimmy checks - gives Trump a political win: he can say he “lowered mortgage rates,” “helped housing,” “saved retirees,” etc - gives relief to citizens while they deal with the issues that the tariffs give them, adds a little spark back into the economy

Coinbase allowed trading in India and not even 10 hours later someone rinsed HyperLiquid Poetic