Amit Segal: Who Will Win Israel's Election? | AJA Exclusive
With Israel approaching a pivotal election, the Australian Jewish Association (AJA) hosted Amit Segal, one of Israel's most influential political journalists, for an exclusive discussion.
Amit Segal, Chief Political Analyst for Israel's Channel 12 News and a regular guest on the Call Me Back podcast, offers his insights into Israel's political landscape, the major parties and personalities, Benjamin Netanyahu's prospects and the possible outcomes of the election.
Recorded on 21 October 2026, just six days before the election. Subscribe to the Australian Jewish Association for more interviews, analysis and discussions with leading Israeli and international figures.
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Israel's election: A case for continuity
AJA President Robert Gregory writes in this week's Australian Jewish News
Israel’s election is for Israelis to decide but has profound consequences for Australian Jews.
October 7, the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, will shadow the Netanyahu Government. Yet any assessment must also recognise the strategic transformation that followed. While October 7 could have happened under any government, no leader could have handled the aftermath with Netanyahu’s combination of experience, resolve and international relationships.
Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran’s network have been devastated. Sinwar, Nasrallah and Khamenei are gone. Gaza hasn’t fired a rocket in over a year. The successful pager operation has Lebanon now discussing Hezbollah’s disarmament and possible peace. Assad’s fall transformed Syria. Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure is crippled.
Most significantly, every Israeli hostage, living or deceased, has returned.
Netanyahu was laser-focused on Iran and masterfully escalated the confrontation to its source, despite extraordinary international pressure. He defied Biden’s opposition to entering Rafah where Sinwar was hiding and hostages were held. It’s hard to imagine less-experienced leadership withstanding this pressure. Many opposition figures wanted to stop the war at every turn and sign premature ceasefires. Nasrallah and Sinwar would still be alive, and Iran’s nuclear program would be hanging over Israel’s head.
Annually, Netanyahu enters the lion’s den of the United Nations and makes Israel’s case in impeccable English in contrast to Gadi Eisenkot’s faltering English.
The left blames Netanyahu for October 7, citing his failure to launch pre-emptive war and permission for Qatari aid. That hardly justifies electing opposition parties which advocated even greater appeasement. The Opposition’s only viable path requires cooperation with Islamist party Ra’am, a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot. Democrats leader Yair Golan accused Israel of “killing babies as a hobby” and compared developments in Israel to Nazi Germany.
The war is not over. Iran is wounded but not defeated, a jihadist army grows in Syria and Erdogan’s Turkey looms on the horizon. Israel faces surging antisemitism, sanctions, boycotts and further International Criminal Court (ICC) warrants. Diaspora Jews expecting antisemitism to decline after Netanyahu leaves face a rude awakening. Israel’s next leader must confront the wrath of the Europeans, United Nations and the Democrat Party in America.
Not everything is bleak. Despite prolonged war, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has kept the economy pumping. GDP growth is projected at 4% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027. Unemployment is low; inflation within target.
Smotrich also led a revolution in Judea and Samaria, Israel’s heartland, approving tens of thousands of Jewish homes, including the critical E1 area protecting Jerusalem, promised by Israeli leaders since Yitzchak Rabin in 1994. Meanwhile, an unprecedented government campaign has demolished thousands of illegal Arab buildings that threatened security and sovereignty in areas like Jerusalem and the Negev.
The Abraham Accords, signed under Netanyahu, endure despite years of war. Israel is strengthening ties globally from Latin America to the Pacific. Colombia just became the tenth country to open a Jerusalem embassy.
As right-wing parties surge across Europe, Israel’s Government is well-placed to strengthen ties, having wisely abandoned longstanding boycotts.
Netanyahu’s relationship with President Trump has delivered recognition of Israel’s capital and Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. He has addressed Congress more often than any other foreign leader, surpassing Churchill and met with Trump more than any other leader. With two years remaining in Trump’s term, can a newcomer start from scratch?
The governing bloc is diverse. Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana is Israel’s highest-ranking gay politician ever, serving alongside Orthodox rabbis. Secular Likud voters, Religious Zionists, Ashkenazi and Sephardi Haredim, and Israelis from the periphery coexist in the first government to complete a full term since 1988.
Haredi military service remains a serious national challenge. Few Israelis want the status quo established under Labor to continue but opposition rhetoric describing fellow Jews as parasites verges on antisemitism. Enlistment has been rising. A sensible, practical approach is needed. Reckless grandstanding by politicians will fill Israel’s prisons and clog its roads with fiery protests but won’t draft any Charedim.
For the first time, for Australian Jews, there is another consideration: a government that will confront a hostile Albanese Government when it fails our community. Australian Aliyah is rising and Labor is planning further hostile sanctions.
Through my role at the Australian Jewish Association, I have witnessed this government’s concern for the welfare of Australian Jews. After the Bondi attack, Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli contacted us as he was boarding a flight to Australia. AJA hosted him at Chabad Bondi.
From Smotrich’s Party, MK Simcha Rothman planned a solidarity visit before Tony Burke revoked his visa while Aliyah Minister Ofir Sofer and MK Ohad Tal visited.
Israelis must decide who should navigate the unfinished war and the opportunities ahead. With so much at stake, is now the moment to change experienced hands at the wheel?
The decision belongs to Israelis, but its consequences will be felt throughout the Jewish world.
Robert Gregory
President
Australian Jewish Association
* The Australian Jewish Association does not endorse political parties or candidates, in Australia or overseas.
Australian Jewish Association retweeted
In getting the Sbarro bomber to justice, Australia has a role. A role that Australia has declined to play without ever offering an explanation that comported with the facts. It’s time.
jwire.com.au/in-getting-the-…
“In this fight for justice, can anything be done in Australia? Yes. Public pressure is no substitute for diplomatic engagement. But it can help shape the terms of that engagement and make continued ambiguity more costly.”
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Australian Jewish Association retweeted
Another diplomatic achievement: Israel joins the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) as a Forum Partner.
The Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum, Baron Divavesi Waqa, has informed me that Israel has been accepted as a Forum Partner, following a decision at the meeting of the Forum’s member state leaders in Palau.
This follows my visit to Fiji in June, where I met with the Secretary General and presented Israel’s request to join the Forum.
Strengthening ties with the Pacific Island nations is one of my objectives. Earlier this year, I opened Israel’s Embassy in Fiji, which also serves nine other Pacific Island nations, all friendly to Israel.
Under the current government, three of these countries, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Nauru, have opened embassies in Jerusalem.
As a Forum Partner, Israel will participate in a framework for cooperation in areas of mutual interest, based on regional priorities and Israel’s expertise in water management, desalination, agriculture, tackling climate change, innovation and sustainable development.
Israel and the Forum will also develop a joint action plan setting out practical areas of cooperation and a mechanism to monitor progress.
Australian Jewish Association retweeted
Labor government-owned “journalist” Michael West is still crashing out after a far-left pro-Hamas extremist who attacked MP Helen Haines was linked to his sphere of deranged conspiracy influence as a fan and mutual follower.
How the online hate preachers harnessed another tragedy, exploited the horrific attack on Helen Haines. Sadly, they are paid
#auspol
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Australian Jewish Association retweeted
With the horrific politically motivated attack on Helen Haines MP now would be an excellent time, once again, for paying attention to the connection between mentally ill people and the Marxist, Palestinian, and Islamist groups that attract and recruit them.
Social misfits, the mentally ill, drug addicts, outcasts suddenly find themselves with a 'community' and a weekly social outing. Naturally they want to impress their new 'friends'.
Oh wow.
This is crazy
The man who rammed Helen Haines with his car, Brendan Nugent, followed Michael West Media (the publication my fan here, Joshua Barnett, works at)
Nugent is fan of Michael's populist rag, in particular, their never-ending rants about Jews and the Jewish state. Here are just a few recent retweets of Michael's work by Nugent on the topic of Jews/Israel
I am exporting all of Nugent's X activity. So far, it's clear he is obsessed with Israel
He is also a big fan of Michael West's bedfellows, Caitlin Johnstone (he retweeted her piece “Why I Don’t Condemn Hamas For October 7") and Mary Kostakidis
Sorry Josh, Mike and other comrades, you can't blame this one on the Joos™
"Since the hate speech laws, there's MORE antisemitism in the community, especially on the conservative side of politics."
AJA warned that the so-called hate speech laws would fuel antisemitism.
Conservative #Jewish leaders WARNED the government not to ask for #censorship laws against Australians in response to the Bondi attack in case it turned the community against them.
"Since the hate speech laws, there's MORE antisemitism in the community, especially on the conservative side of politics."
David Adler and @OzraeliAvi both warned about this.
Oh wow, the alleged attacker of Helen Haines MP apparently followed and had positive online interactions with genocide cooker Michael West.
That provides some context for why he is acting so defensive and attempting to divert attention to the Australian Jewish Association.
An Australian politician has been critically injured in an alleged deliberate attack by an anti-Israel extremist.
Genocide cooker, Michael West makes it about the Jews, of course, by making a post about the Australian Jewish Association.
He is worried about the 'political advantage'.
Every post from his fake 'media' outlet should disclose how much in taxpayer funding the outlet has received in grants from the Albanese Govt.
It's alarming to see left-wing politicians already using this tragedy to call for further censorship online.
The irony of using an attack, allegedly carried out by a crazed, leftist, anti-Israel hater in order to ram through Labor's draconian digital censorship bill which will be used to censor conservatives.
An Australian politician has been critically injured in an alleged deliberate attack by an anti-Israel extremist.
Genocide cooker, Michael West makes it about the Jews, of course, by making a post about the Australian Jewish Association.
He is worried about the 'political advantage'.
Every post from his fake 'media' outlet should disclose how much in taxpayer funding the outlet has received in grants from the Albanese Govt.
ANTI-ISRAEL EXTREMIST ALLEGEDLY ATTACKS & SERIOUSLY WOUNDS AUSTRALIAN MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT
Police have named Brendan Nugent as the alleged attacker.
Helen Haines MP is in a critical condition.
A social media post which others have publicly connected to the alleged attacker posted obsessively about Israel for years. The last post before the alleged attack was about Israel and he had recently shared an anti-Israel post by Bob Carr.
The bio describes him as a “Plant Person” and vegan and the account had previously interacted with Helen Haines. Haines herself had made many anti-Israel statements, including calling for sanctions against the Jewish State.
Is this a case of the anti-Israel radicalisation leading to violence against an Australian politician as AJA and so many others had warned about?
What can be done to prevent further violence?
Australian Jewish Association retweeted
Jordan and Australia share a total absence of interest in the victims of Jordanian Hamas terrorist #AhlamTamimi. One of those is my Melbourne-born daughter Malki Roth in whose name my wife and I have fought for years so the Jordanian savage is made to stand trial in Washington.
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Astounding! Jordan which harbors my child’s murderer #AhlamTamimi in violation of its treaty with the US, and Australia, where Malki was born and of which she was a citizen, announced plans today (see ⬇) for joint counterterror measures while failing to even mention Tamimi.





























