Free Bitcoin morning brief · 5x/week Verified CryptoQuant analyst https://nitter.gq/t.co/rzpEkFTWKe
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The Fed held rates steady, with two members voting for a hike. Bitcoin reacted calmly. How justified is that calm?
I break down rates, Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s earnings, and Anthropic’s IPO. At the end fresh Weekly Engine data and what it tells us about the BTC market.
substack.com/@adlerinsight/n…
Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike as the Fed held rates steady.
The statement upgraded economic growth from a “solid” to a “strong” pace. Inflation still “remains elevated.”
Warsh says September’s hike is tightening financial conditions but gives no guidance on the next move.
After the Fed’s Oct. 28 hold:
10Y yield: +5 bps to 5.04%
2Y: little changed at 4.73%
Yield curve steepened.
Markets priced an 86% chance of a December hike.
What’s happening with Bitcoin’s long-term holders?
The monthly LTH distribution volume fell 22% over the week. The price remains above long-term holders’ cost basis, but their profit cushion is shrinking.
We examine the shrinking profit cushion and the reasons behind the decline in the distribution metric in Morning Brief #289.
axeladlerjr.com/lth-distribu…
The monthly LTH distribution volume fell 22% over the week. The price remains above long-term holders’ cost basis, but their profit cushion is shrinking.
We examine the shrinking profit cushion and the reasons behind the decline in the distribution metric in Morning Brief #289.
axeladlerjr.com/lth-distribu…
The Fear & Greed Index fell to 51 over the past week. The market has stayed in neutral territory for the sixth consecutive day, despite spending almost all of the past two months in greed territory.
How durable is this cooling, and at what index value will the market move into fear territory - in today's Morning Brief. 👇
axeladlerjr.com/market-senti…
Market context explained visually.
Short-term holders are shifting from taking profits to realizing losses. The 24-hour exchange inflow balance has turned negative.
How large is this imbalance, and what would signal that stress is easing? I break it down in Morning Brief #287.
axeladlerjr.com/short-term-h…
Short-term holders are shifting from taking profits to realizing losses. The 24-hour exchange inflow balance has turned negative.
How large is this imbalance, and what would signal that stress is easing? I break it down in Morning Brief #287.
axeladlerjr.com/short-term-h…
Bitcoin dipped toward $79K last week. Nasdaq fell 2.6% on Oct 22, oil is climbing, Middle East tensions are rising. And per the FT, OpenAI cut its valuation for the new round from $1.4T to $1.25T.
Risk-off mode. What does it mean for Bitcoin and what do the metrics show?
substack.com/@adlerinsight/n…
Visual overview of the current market.
Bitcoin is 6% above the average purchase price of new players. Over the past week, this group's profit cushion narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, but their cost basis continues to rise.
Where is the level below which new buyers would be at a loss, and what does the Young/Old Ratio moving average crossover say - in today's Morning Brief.
axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-6…
Bitcoin is 6% above the average purchase price of new players. Over the past week, this group's profit cushion narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, but their cost basis continues to rise.
Where is the level below which new buyers would be at a loss, and what does the Young/Old Ratio moving average crossover say - in today's Morning Brief.
axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-6…
Bitcoin compression continues. The 30D High and Low range has narrowed from 13% to 6%. Price has been in the compression zone for the 9th consecutive day, between $80K and $86K.
Yesterday price bounced off the SMA 365 and closed at $80.5K. This is a new 30D low. Volatility compression usually ends with an impulse.
Key levels: $86K above, SMA 365 below.
On July 1, MVRV Percentile reached 0% at a price of $59.3K. This was followed by a recovery to 32% (September 27); the indicator held around 30-32% for about two weeks, but failed to consolidate and pulled back to 25%.
The market remains in the early-to-mid accumulation phase.
Bitcoin sentiment is cooling, dropping from 83 (peak on August 26) to 45 and exiting the Extreme Greed zone, while the price has held in a narrow range over the same period. Fear & Greed fell from 71 to 51 and the share of bullish votes on CoinGecko from 78% to 72%.
The overheating has cleared without a sell-off, which is a healthier base for the market.
BTW, 7.81K BTC was pulled from US ETFs yesterday.
axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitco…
Visual overview of the current market.
Coins continue to leave exchanges, while the futures market remains balanced. We look at what is behind the sharp decline in outflows and why the positioning index is near zero.
Details in Morning Brief 285👇
axeladlerjr.com/exchange-out…
Coins continue to leave exchanges, while the futures market remains balanced. We look at what is behind the sharp decline in outflows and why the positioning index is near zero.
Details in Morning Brief 285👇
axeladlerjr.com/exchange-out…
Strong earnings from SpaceX revived interest in AI-related stocks: third-quarter revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion, and its shares gained 7.8%. The Nasdaq rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Dow added 0.7%.
Improving sentiment in equities provided a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin’s gains. Is demand for BTC strong enough to sustain the recovery, and what does on-chain data reveal about who’s buying now?
A closer look in Bitcoin Market State Report #6
substack.com/@adlerscryptoin…
