Amsterdam
Joined January 2009
- Tweets5K
- Following1.4K
- Followers3.3K
- Likes17.9K
micro thesis opportunities i see in crypto right now
diminishing returns on perp dexes HL +XYZ still the lead
Variational as top contender
> Variational yet to release Swaps & Pro, this will allow for thousands of markets and all sorts of insane derivatives
> Hypurrs look good here and shoku is one of the top holders: S3 coded
tokens becoming like equities, and equities will be tokenized*
> best performing tokens will follow revenue meta
> stocks coming onchain is very bullish
> global permissionless access /use them as legos across all the infra we built over the years
2026-2027 marks the rise of prop firms
> regulation keeps pushing exchanges out the back door > new business model emerges and solidifies in their place
trading will become increasingly automated
> he who controls the interface controls the universe (this applied to GPT / Claude)
> agentic trading will increase in popularity
visionary founder / investor @mickymalka launched ribbita-by-virtuals:native and writes Berkshire style investment letters
> if everything becomes tokenized, does that include @RibbitCapital investments*
> if that includes Ribbit investments, will that be placed under autonomous management? 🐸
a lot of BTC miners are renting out compute for AI
> take the btc model and apply it to inference in a way that actually works... what you get is pearl-2:native
one of crypto's core innovations has always been incentive mechanisms that align participants globally. there's a couple more protocols doing that very uniquely: base:0x0c03ce270b4826ec62e7dd007f0b716068639f7b base:0x9b5e262cf9bb04869ab40b19af91d2dc85761722
Robinhood is taking Solana's throne
> bringing spot stocks onchain
> capturing most users
> bullish for ETH
stocks will keep functioning as altcoins
> AI demand is not slowing down but accelerating
pre-IPO investing nets you the best returns
> hardest part is getting into the rounds everybody wants, maybe Ribbit can solve this?
not sure if socialism can be contributed to retail not having access, would find it more likely it’s being caused by cost of living going up too fast, migration to cities disrupting supply and demand (not enough being built), and cost of building infrastructure in advanced economies being too high / overregulated, while governments are overstaffed, bureaucratic and so inefficient to the point where nobody gets shit done
> k shape investing comes after but most have no clue this is even going
good read for 2 ends of the spectrum: Breakneck by Dan Wang
I think the solution / business opportunity is quite simple, for an agent to act on your behalf on one app is one thing, to do it across multiple or much complexer products is something else, especially if it would be transacting with other agents, people etc
all you really need is a social credit system but then for agents + KYA to allow for more optionality, and interesting usecases
supposedly there's this thing called know your agent (KYA) and it could solve a thing or two
maybe your big beautiful banks wouldn't have to break down if they implemented this technology, say maybe yesterday?
to put things into perspective there will be more agents transacting per day than there are capable humans on earth within the next 5 years
and they will run on crypto rails
do with that what you will
SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios.
The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios.
Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said.
Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior.
Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-agen…
actually think that was me as well, completely forgot about that, I think I still have the GC on Discord lol
Uncertain about how positive and abundant the world will become, turning mercury into gold, printing organs, curing cancer, stopping aging, robots cleaning your house, flying cars, but idk man, life will become so unbearable because I just can't accept the changes around me anymore, no no no, couldn't be me
KYA, [ ] and these sorts of things will be the only thing that matter
Blockchains will be the ultimate tools for the surveillance state
You will not escape, unless you live remote with no access to the internet
Pick your poison
AI will consume so many things in such quick succession that the practices we have relied upon for decades will lag
signatures are now completely worthless, with a photo of your signature i can just ask claude to sign whatever document i want
with one prompt i can have claude pull a signature off any document, sign it perfectly or imperfectly on anything digital, then have it look slightly faded as if it were a scan of a wet-ink signature
there are many practices like this that now don't work. it will be the age of 2fa security keys and in-person verification
more realistically, and im sorry for the many ppl on here who seethe at this, it probably needs to be digital ID for everyone
Legendary growth. We actually helped them out very early on with some partner onboardings, because I happened to know someone from their team. Wasn’t a great success and none to their fault, just was too far out of our existing focus w/ @zokuxyz
One of the guys we onboarded does have a silver plaque on his wall though :)
gg @based16z
if you followed my August 11 microthesis post you'd be leap frogging laps around the majority of CT
sometimes you don’t see it even when it’s right in front of you
nitter.gq/i/trending/21128347133…
Variational Pro will be one of the most sophisticated product launches crypto has ever seen as it will:
> automate the entire chain: from multi dealer RFQs, smart contracts and stablecoin settlement > do for derivatives what stablecoins did for payments
> tap into TradFi liquidity from day 1
I feel like one should view Pro as way more than a product launch:
> it’s machine native from day one: w/ settlement in stablecoins and execution through RFQs all routed through Variational
> the end users won’t all be human, agents will quote, hedge and settle without ever calling a desk, doing docusigns or engaging in random TG groups
> nothing out there is better positioned than Variational, since they already have the trust, capital and distribution
The complex/exotic products the biggest institutions on earth trade will become accessible to anyone/anything with a wallet
All roads lead to R̶o̶m̶e̶ Variational
