Blockchain Daily Terminal

Last week I said that for TRX to break out, we may need an FTX collapse-like catalyst and one final leg down in crypto. This week Binance was hacked for a record $6.3B, almost like clockwork. $234M in stolen USDT was swapped into TRX to avoid being frozen. Some of that TRX has since been moved through swaps and bridges into other assets, including ETH. That could put some short-term pressure on TRX, but based on where we are in the wave structure, I think this could be the last leg down. I honestly don’t think this is another FTX. Roughly 44% of the stolen assets have already been frozen or seized, which gives them a much clearer path to recovery. Binance also says it has replenished 90% of the stolen assets. Bybit survived its $1.5B hack, and I think Binance can survive this too, although reopening withdrawals and meeting demand will be the real test. The hack is real, but I think fear, panic and doomsday speculation are making the selling worse. That’s exactly the kind of sentiment I’d expect around a final washout before a much larger move up. The wave structure is why I’m watching for it; the news may just be the catalyst. I’d watch for a big leg up in the 48 hours after Binance reopens withdrawals and continues operating as usual.