Stop peddling BS. I might occasionally be guilty of it, in which I'll gladly take ownership.
Joined August 2009
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When someone who was kicked out of school tells you "I ran the numbers" you should probably run from them
I ran the numbers.
With the exception of Ken Paxton*, Texas Republican midterm statewide candidates slightly outperformed historical expectations.
Democrats UNPRECEDENTEDLY outperformed them.
Prior to 2026, it was rare for a statewide race candidate to outperform the presidential candidate of two years prior.
In 2026, EVERY SINGLE STATEWIDE CANDIDATE obtained more raw votes than Kamala Harris.
This has never happened before.
Methods.
I asked: What average % of the presidential vote does each Texas statewide race candidate get in the midterms, for each party?
Then I compared what each candidate was expected to get, based on historical trends since 1992**, to what they actually got in 2026.
The present figure is after adjusting for which party had a president in office; midterm turnout is on average higher for parties who lost the presidency.
The unadjusted version is in the next, threaded post, for completeness.
* Paxton would have lost even if he had performed at slightly above historical expectation, as other Republican candidates had, as you can see in the right-hand figure.
** Texas and national politics worked very differently before the 1990s, with many conservatives voting Republican for president and Democrat for state office. They are not comparable.
Bane of BS retweeted
Trump is a conspiracy theorist who hates to lose. You all are throwing him red meat, and he m’s grabbing on to it. Shameful philosophy: if we lose they must’ve cheated. If we win, all is good. Sore fucking losers. It’s embarrassing.
Easy slander lawsuit @TeamTalaricoHQ
Top Trump Humper, Gunther Eagleman has made excuses for Trump for 2 years.
Now he expects democrats to be more successful than Trump, without the Presidency, Veto power, or Supreme Court.
Because, of course.
Bane of BS retweeted
Fun Fact: Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Georgia, South Carolina... all have voter ID laws.
So before MAGA starts screaming about Democrats stealing elections, explain how Democrats supposedly pulled it off in states that already require voter identification.
Yea, I'll say "Fuck Elon Musk" just for fun too.
I used to support the guy, but he showed his true colors.
He basically used the government to get the government from looking into his companies.
Now if anyone wants to look into him he just threatens them cause he's a trillionaire.
And the law certainly doesn't apply to trillionaires.
You know it's bad when the President starts an unnecessary war that spikes fuel prices and then thinks it's a flex to spend more taxpayer money to pay off the people he screwed over by imposing blanket tariffs and starting said unnecessary war.
Bane of BS retweeted
JD Vance: "Vote for the people who have solutions to lower the cost of gas, don't vote for the people who made the problem to begin with."
Bane of BS retweeted
A lot of people have said that Nick Shirley was created by our government, & I'm starting to believe them.
Blow the whistle on fraud TODAY and have the chance to earn yourself cold, hard cash!
america.gov/fraud
