BankofVol Grift¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰

What Bank of Volatility is, in one page: the daily briefing before the US open, a systematic book run since 2016, and three trades from the August book with their results as they were posted. Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only.

Best Halloween costume on Wall Street

Bullish AI users.

Rough month but it ends well.

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Friday 30 October 2026, 13:40 CET 🧭 THE PICTURE • /ES 7,669 (−1.10%) and /NQ 28,796 (−2.59%) at 13:30 CET, the Dow future flat at 52,468 (−0.08%), the Russell 2,851 (−0.58%). The selling sits in one place, the AI complex, and the rest of the tape is being bought. • Amazon and Intel did it. Amazon guided a soft holiday quarter, burned cash in Q3 and plans about $220bn of capex for 2026; the stock is −7.3% at 225.99. Intel sees Q4 revenue of $15bn to $16bn against $17.1bn expected, no positive free cash flow this year and a weak PC market through the first half of 2027; the stock is −25% pre-market, on course for a six-month low. • Outside tech, earnings are fine. Exxon and Chevron beat on refining margins, with Exxon earning more downstream than upstream for the first time in at least six years; AbbVie and Colgate raised guidance; General Dynamics beat. • Last session of October. The ten-year has fallen to 4.93%, a seven-week low, as money leaves the AI names for bonds, health care, energy and staples. 🔥 WHAT IS MOVING PRE-MARKET • Semis: SOXL −19.8%, AMD −9.1% at 514.80, Micron −6.1% at 877.28, Coherent −9.0%, Corning −7.0%, Cerebras −6.8%, Broadcom −4.3%, Nvidia −2.9% at 207.43, Korea's EWY −5.3%. Europe's chip names fell with them, ASML −5.2%, STMicro −3.7%. • AI adjacent: Oracle −4.2%, AppLovin −5.1%, Bloom Energy −8.9%, IonQ −6.0%, Tempus −6.4%, Reddit −21% after its CEO warned that daily users could fall sharply in Q4. • Crypto: Strategy −7.1% at 131.60 and Coinbase −4.8% after hours, after hackers took $6.3bn from Binance, the largest theft on record. • Winners: ADP +2.6%, Coca-Cola Europacific +2.5%, Conagra +2.2%, J&J +2.0% at 280.77, Adobe +1.6%, CSX +1.7%, health care (XLV) +1.5%, energy (XLE) +1.4%, Transocean +1.4%, financials (XLF) +0.8%. The equal weight index (RSP) is flat against SPY −1.0%. Exxon +2% and Chevron +1% on their prints. • Metals sold: silver (SLV) −4.4%, Pan American −3.5%, Freeport −3.5%, GLD −1.5%. 📍 LEVELS • /ES: 7,700 is gone pre-market, the line written down on Thursday. It is now the level to recover by the close; below it, 7,650 then 7,600, and a close under 7,600 says the rotation cannot carry the index. • /NQ: 29,000 lost. 28,500 is the next round number below, and the cash open decides whether the semis get bought at −5% to −10%. Parts 2 and 3, Europe, rates, currencies, oil, gold, bitcoin, volatility and the bottom line: bankofvol.substack.com/p/ama… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only. Bank of Volatility

For educational and research purposes only, not financial advice. The Fed is out of the way until 9 December. The market has already chosen what it wants to own until then, and it is not what led in October. Thursday's tape, as we measure it in price and breadth: the Nasdaq down 1.7%, with memory, software and the semis leading the fall after Alphabet's spending plans. Underneath, the equal weight index up 0.8%, the Russell up 0.8%, gold and silver lower on the day and bought on every dip. If you look and dig deeper there is a rotation out of the AI capex trade into everything it starved for two years. Risk is still being taken, elsewhere. The test is written down: /ES holds 7,700 and the rotation carries the index; /ES loses 7,700 and it was a correction in disguise. The full read, with the Emerging themes post Fed, the names and the levels for the six weeks to the next Fed meeting, will be in the chat for paid subscribers. Systematic book since 2016, Substack since 2025. bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Bank of Volatility

For educational and research purposes only, not financial advice. Moderna, two trades trade 1 +100% in six day and trade 2 +57% in one day. The bots bought three legs on Friday 23 October, when nobody in this market was looking at health care and with Moderna dumped, down double digits and bleeding that day. The short put was closed the next Monday for +57% Pnl and the Call spread position was closed today, the first half this morning, the rest is planned into the close, with the stock up 13% on the week. Why it matters beyond one trade: since the Fed, money has been leaving the AI spenders and finding its way into other area its important to define the next themes for the market until the next Fed meeting. Systematic book since 2016, Substack since 2025. Join before the next entry: bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Bank of Volatility

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Thursday 29 October 2026, 12:45 CET Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only. 📌 THE LEAD • Alphabet is down about 10% pre-market: revenue came in below expectations and the AI build-out pushed free cash flow negative, roughly 9 billion dollars out the door in one quarter. Microsoft is up 3.6% on a large cash-flow beat and strong cloud guidance. Same night, same capex, opposite verdicts. The market now pays for AI spend only when the cash comes back. • /NQ 29,641.50, down 1.13%. /ES 7,756.75, down 0.34%. /RTY 2,847.4, up 0.28%. /YM 52,581, down 0.22%. The rotation is visible before the bell: small caps and the Dow hold while the AI complex pays. • Wednesday closed higher for a third session: Nasdaq Composite 26,550 (+0.27%), Dow 52,475 (+0.19%), Russell 2000 2,831 (+0.41%). Oracle +11% on a capex plan with a peak date, Micron +6%, SK hynix +13%, Vertiv +16%, Enphase -16%. 🏦 THE FED • Held at 3.75% to 4.00%, 10 to 2, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a quarter-point hike, the first governor plus regional president pairing on the same side since 1992. Activity upgraded to "expanding at a strong pace", inflation "remains elevated" with CPI at 3.7% in September. • Warsh gave no guidance: "monetary medicine is starting to work", no pre-judging of meetings, eight meetings a year stays, one of them a strategy session from autumn 2027. Futures price about 81% for a December hike and a further one by mid-2027. • Treasuries: 10-year 5.03% after touching 5.04% during the press conference, 2-year 4.71%, 30-year 5.36%. VIX 17.12 this morning after a 16.91 close. /VXX26 (November, expires 18 November) 18.66, /VXZ26 (December, expires 16 December) 18.77: contango intact, nothing in the term structure says stress. 📉 PRE-MARKET BOARD, 12:40 CET • Semis: SOXL -6.4% (three times leveraged, so the index trades about 2% lower), MU -2.6% in the wake of Samsung -4.1% in Seoul on a shareholder-return plan that disappointed despite strong results, AVGO -2.5%, AMD -2.3%, SMCI -2.1%, NVDA -0.6%. AXTI -7.1%. • Software is the weak leg: IGV -4.2%, PANW -6.6%, MDB -4.6%, ADBE -3.4%, ADSK -2.1%, ORCL -1.4% after Wednesday's +11%. Fortinet -25% on slowing product revenue despite a beat, ServiceNow -18% on a profit miss. • Mega caps: META +1.1%, AAPL +1.3%, AMZN -1.7% ahead of its report tonight. • Defensive bid and breadth: XLV +2.2%, JNJ +2.1%, ADP +2.4%, AEP +1.8%, XAR +1.7%, CSX +1.5%, XLF +1.2%, SPYD +0.9%, RSP +0.3% with the cap-weighted index lower. BLDR +5.6%, PURR +12.5%. • Asia and Europe: Kospi -1.2%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Shanghai -0.8%, Nikkei +1.1% at 64,659. EWY -2.9%, CWEB -3.4%, KWEB -1.8%, HSAI -4.9%, BABA -2.0%, EWZ -0.4%. DAX +0.8%, CAC 40 +1%, FTSE +0.5% into the ECB. Parts 2 and 3 (oil, gold, currencies, rates, bitcoin, earnings, the day's calendar and the Bottom line) are on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/alp…

For educational and research purposes only, not financial advice. Bank of Volatility is #64 Rising in Finance on Substack today. Thank you to every subscriber who put it there. The Substack opened in 2025 on top of a book that has run since 2016, and the paid Chat gets the next entry at today's close, 4 pm New York. bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Bank of Volatility

For educational and research purposes only, not financial advice. Alert. At today's close, 4 pm New York, the bots put on a position right at the heart of the AI boom, on a name that comes up far less often in the AI conversation than the usual suspects, and for that exact reason remains, in our opinion, underpriced. It joins the calendar trade opened at yesterday's close, the one with a date on it next week. The entry goes to paid subscribers in the chat as it is done, with the levels to watch. The systematic book has run since 2016; the last exit of this kind closed at +141% the day before the market it was in fell 25%. Subscribe before the close: bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Bank of Volatility

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Wednesday 28 October 2026, 11:30 CET 🧭 THE PICTURE • /ES 7,768 (+0.13%) and /NQ 29,938 (+0.42%) at 11:30 CET, with the Dow future 0.25% lower and the Russell 0.23% lower: the bid sits in large-cap tech again and nowhere else. • The Fed decides at 19:00 CET. The consensus is a pause at 4.00% after the September hike, with the market pricing at least three more 25 bp hikes by the end of 2027, so the statement and the press conference will be read for December. • Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, Amazon and Intel later in the week. Capex and the cloud growth rate are the two numbers the market wants, with debt-funded AI spending now judged against a ten-year above 5%. • The Nasdaq is up about 2% on the week since Anthropic filed its IPO on Monday. 🔥 WHAT IS MOVING PRE-MARKET • Memory: SK Hynix printed a quarterly profit more than seven times last year's and announced $75bn of shareholder returns. Its US listing is up 7.8%, Micron +4.15% at 967.30, Western Digital +4.5%, Sandisk +0.8%, Seagate −3.7% on its own results. • Semis follow: Nvidia +0.76% at 219.60, AMD +1.5%, Marvell +1.7%, SOXL +3.12%, Korea's EWY +3.70%. • Alphabet +1.2% on a report that OpenAI plans to buy Google's AI chips. Microsoft is flat into its print, two days after offering voluntary departures to 60,000 employees. • Losers: Robinhood −8% on a Q3 miss blamed on the crypto slowdown, Enphase −18% on its miss, Visa −1.7% despite a beat. GE Vernova +4.7% after agreeing to buy Trench Group for $9bn. • Elsewhere on the screen: Bloom Energy +3.88%, Corning +1.90%, Oracle +1.29%, MicroStrategy +1.65%, Apple −0.57% at 345.12, J&J −0.79%, Moderna −1.38% at 205.10, financials (XLF) −0.57%, health care (XLV) −0.49%. 📍 LEVELS • /ES: 7,760 held overnight. 7,800 is the figure above, 7,700 the first support, and the Fed statement decides which one is tested first. • /NQ: 30,000 sits 60 points above. The memory bid gets it there before the Fed; holding it needs Microsoft and Alphabet tonight. Parts 2 and 3, Europe, rates, currencies, oil, gold, bitcoin, volatility and the bottom line:bankofvol.substack.com/p/mem… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only. Bank of Volatility

Tip of the day

For educational and research purposes only, not financial advice. Alert. The bots opened a position at today's close that almost nobody has on their screen: a trade built on a calendar, not a chart, with a date on it next week. Tomorrow at the close, 4 pm New York, a second one goes on, right at the heart of the AI boom, on a name that comes up far less often in the AI conversation than the usual suspects, and for that exact reason remains, in our opinion, underpriced. Both entries go to paid subscribers in the chat as they are done, with the levels to watch. The systematic book runs since 2016; the last exit of this kind closed at +141% the day before the market it was in fell 25%. Subscribe before the close: bankofvol.substack.com/subsc… Bank of Volatility

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Tuesday 27 October 2026, 14:15 CET 🌅 THE TAPE AT MIDDAY • /ES 7,733.5 (+0.25%) after Monday's +0.7% settle at 7,714.5; /NQ 29,553.5 (+0.40%), /YM 52,596 (+0.09%), /RTY 2,805.6 (+0.29%). Second day of the same leadership: SOXL +4.8%, AVGO +3.2%, MU +2.2%, AMD +1.5%, NVDA +0.9%. • VIX 17.87 (−0.52). November /VX 19.00 and December 19.06 sit a point above spot, a normal curve on the eve of the Fed; VVIX 101. • 10-year 5.00%, 2-year 4.74%, 30-year 5.31%. Three weeks of lower yields, now flat into Wednesday. • Oil eases again: Brent around $115 (−0.9%), WTI around $101 (−0.6%). Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday and the four agreed to keep talking, while the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have resumed. • Gold spot 4,024 (flat), December futures 4,038; silver −0.2%; BTC 80,136 (+0.2%). • EUR/USD 1.1152 (−0.2%) as France's bond yields turn back up, USD/CHF 0.8287. 💰 THE RAISE AND THE PRINTS • Meta priced 40 million shares at $625 ($25bn) plus $12.5bn of 6.5% mandatory convertibles (conversion 734.21, a 17.5% premium), the raise now $97.5bn in total, the largest in its history. Nvidia takes $3bn of it and deepens the Muse partnership. META −0.4% pre-market at 628 after −1.9% on Monday. • Guidance raised before the open at Coca-Cola (+1%), UPS and PayPal; Royal Caribbean +4.6% on a beat; Hilton −4% on a revenue miss despite a higher RevPAR outlook; Whirlpool −8% on a quarterly loss; Boeing −2.6% at 183 on a larger loss from supply and production delays; Freeport beat on copper; Centene raised. • Durable goods +1.8% in September (consensus +1.5%), +0.5% ex-transport. Consumer confidence at 16:00 CET (consensus 81.0, prior 81.9). 🇧🇷 BRAZIL, DAY TWO • EWZ +1.8% pre-market at 34.76 after closing Monday at 34.15, −19.7% on the day; Petrobras +0.8% after −14%. The gap held, no second leg so far. 📅 THE WEEK • Fed Wednesday 19:00 CET, press conference 19:30: a hold at 90% per LSEG, December the open question. ECB Thursday (deposit rate 2.50%, hold expected), BoJ Friday. Israel votes today for the Knesset. • Earnings: Microsoft and Alphabet Wednesday after the close, Amazon and Intel Thursday. New home sales today. Parts 2 and 3 on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/sem… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only. Bank of Volatility

5/5

Bank Of Volatility Market Commentary Monday 26 October 2026, 13:15 CET 🌅 THE TAPE AT MIDDAY • /ES 7,687 (+0.36%), /NQ 29,276 (+0.54%), /YM 52,641 (+0.47%), /RTY 2,795 (+0.37%): a modest bounce after two losing weeks, semis in front (SOXL +3.7%, MU +2.1%, AVGO +1.3%, NVDA +0.9%). • VIX 19.16 (−1.5%). November /VX 19.15 and December 19.18 sit on top of spot, a flat curve into the Fed; Friday's inverted front has unwound. • 10-year 5.01% (+1 bp), 2-year 4.71%, 30-year 5.32%. Three weeks of falling yields have brought the 10-year back to the 5% line. • Oil is the one thing going down: USO −2.8% pre-market, WTI around $101 and Brent around $115 after last week's six-month highs. Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday in coordination with Washington, while the attacks on Saudi Arabia continue. • Gold spot 4,017 (+0.45%), December futures 4,032 (+0.6%), silver +0.25%, BTC 80,330 (+0.3%). • EUR/USD 1.1197, USD/CHF 0.8261. 🇧🇷 BRAZIL, THE SHOCK OF THE DAY • Lula won a fourth term on Sunday, against the polls and against the whole Latin American swing to the right. Flavio Bolsonaro has refused to concede. • EWZ −25% pre-market (31.85), PBR −21% (20.65), Itau −28%, Bradesco −27%, Nu −24%, MercadoLibre −10%. The 2037 dollar bond lost 1.1 points before São Paulo even opened (14:00 CET). The Ibovespa came into this at +27% year to date. • Capital Economics now sees no rate cut at the two remaining meetings of the year: fiscal risk and the real are back in charge. Elsewhere in EM, Serbia's Vucic conceded to the student movement and the yuan sits at a four-year high. 📅 THE WEEK • Fed Wednesday 19:00 CET, press conference 19:30: a hold after September's hike is the consensus, December stays live, with at least two more quarter-point hikes priced by mid-2027. ECB Thursday and BoJ Friday, both expected on hold. • Earnings: Verizon this morning (guidance raised, a $2bn-plus AWS deal for AI infrastructure), MSFT and GOOGL Wednesday after the close, AMZN and INTC Thursday, SK Hynix and Samsung in Korea the same week. Data: new home sales Tuesday, Q3 GDP first estimate (consensus 3.2%) and September PCE Thursday. Midterms on Tuesday 3 November. • The US close is 21:00 CET all week: Europe changed its clocks, the US does so on 1 November. Parts 2 and 3 on Substack: bankofvol.substack.com/p/ewz… Not financial advice. Educational and research purposes only. Bank of Volatility

Apparently the Ballon d’or ranking has leaked and there has been suspicious big bets on Polymarket on this ranking: 1 Kane 2 Mbappé 3 Yamal 4 Rodri 5 Messi We will see tomorrow it true What’s the SEC doing?

Big if true