Value-add Multifamily Real Estate. High-growth portfolio through creative financing and off-market buys. Former poker pro. Crypto and stocks on the side.
Joined August 2021
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The problem here is that the world's financial system changed radically after 2009. Global M2 behaves completely differently and is driven by the debt cycle that's never going away.
1999 had a federal budget surplus FFS.
The implied prediction of this chart is pure click bait.
BeachJustice retweeted
Lutnick going on TV
and unironically talking about 3 generations working in the same factory
is some of the most out of touch billionaire, yet also extremely communist, shit i’ve ever seen in my life
GDP growth just dropped from 2.4% in Q4 to -0.3% in Q1.
Inflation higher this month, Core PCE up 2 bps to 3.5%.
Jobs down as well.
Entirely predictable with even a high school economics class.
Q2 is going to be a bloodbath.
Apparently this is the new American Dream?
Spending a lifetime in a factory is the economic model of the future?
Never seen anything so ridiculous.
Holy shit is this idiotic.
The easy thing to do right now would be to embrace the consensus view.
You can claim the administration doesn't know what they are doing. You can scream about the stock market going down and fear-monger about a recession.
Or you can do the hard thing — take the time to study how tariffs have worked in the past.
The evidence is overwhelming that the mainstream understanding is flawed.
For example, tariffs are not inflationary. They create jobs and actually drive consumer prices down.
You wouldn't know that without doing the work though.
Don't take the easy path. Seek the hard path. That is where the truth is.
BeachJustice retweeted
Lutnick: "The army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iPhones -- that kind of thing is going to come to America."
BeachJustice retweeted
We’ve done this mass tariff thing 3 times in American history.
1828, 1930, 2025.
All spaced about 100 years apart because everyone who remembers the last one needs to be dead for the next one to happen.
The last two caused a depression. I hope this one makes us rich tho.
BeachJustice retweeted
Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.
So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.
Monthly reminder that the Shelter component of CPI is STILL at 4.4%, and it makes up 35% of the total CPI print.
Shelter lags reality by 18-24 months.
The BLS real time rent index is nearly 0%.
If we swap the lagged shelter with the current real time #, CPI is below 2%.
BeachJustice retweeted
As a man,
Don't rush to date or marry.
It makes no sense to date while you're broke.
Stay single until you get your money, body and mind right.
Love is a reward for success
No woman loves you unconditionally.
BeachJustice retweeted
🚨 SCOOP: Vice President Kamala Harris is looking at potential replacements for SEC Chair Gary Gensler, insiders told Unchained 👀👨⚖️.
Here’s two of the potential picks ⬇️⬇️⬇️
unchainedcrypto.com/kamala-h…
Crypto holders should be cynical about political candidate support.
Crypto is now mainstream, we already won without those people. Larry Fink, along with the lawyers for Coinbase and Ripple, won the war for us.
DON'T LET THE POLITICIANS TAKE CREDIT, THEY DID NOT HELP US GET HERE
BeachJustice retweeted
FUNDSTRAT: “.. As we have written about many times, the ‘lag’ in the #CPI report has been shelter and auto insurance. And both now seem to be cooling. This is why we expect inflation to ‘fall like a rock’ because all the other components of CPI are largely back to below pandemic trend ..” 🇺🇸
@fundstrat
BeachJustice retweeted
Crazy to think a monthly survey of renters -- most of whom likely haven't signed a new OR renewal lease in 6+ months -- are the one thing keeping inflation outside the Fed's target range; and therefore, indirectly, keeping rates elevated.
BeachJustice retweeted
I posted these the other day but I'm still not sure people yet understand them... and they are the MOST important charts in all of macro/crypto....
Aging population = lower GDP growth
Lower GDP = higher debt to service the aging population.
With high debt and low growth, the Fed needs to create liquidity to service the debt = debasement
Demographics are destiny until the robots + AI scale (2030+), thus debt up, liquidity up = number go up.
It really is that simple with a longer-term time horizon. This is The Everything Code at a very high level.
BeachJustice retweeted
The entire world, central banks, and currencies are nearly all discombobulated bc of a lagged, antiquated measure of rent (owners equivalent rent) used solely by the U.S.
It's a broken measure. It doesn't have to break anything else.
While we all bicker about the CPI's lagged rent data, private sector data on rents is becoming ... stable, predictable and boring.
Rents for apartments nationally held essentially flat year-over-year for a 10th consecutive month in April... up just 0.13%.
And it's the same ol' story at this point: Low-supply markets are pushing up rents, while high-supplied markets are cutting rents. It evens out to zero nationally.
It's all about supply. It's really that simple. For all the noise around affordability and other topics, no other metric correlates with market-level rent change nearly as well as supply.
