Semi-retired hedge fund founder. Ex hot-shot lawyer, ex hot-shot strategy consultant. Macro+picks in crypto, commodities, tech, old-economy & a few special sits
Valinor; winters in La Jolla
Joined May 2011
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I nailed the GFC - saw it coming, heavily shorted into it, kept making money running net-flat for months while most were getting destroyed. Then I botched the turn, getting net short early into a monster rally and giving back more than half my fund's outperformance.
1/4
This confirms my earlier lightly-informed guess: $INTC is a $500 billion shitco.
$INTC thesis is broken.
During the largest datacenter buildout in history:
> $intc failed to lock in substrate early because Intel didn't want to pay in full and someone else was willing to pay in full and took the supply. Same arrogance that lost them the Apple chip deal 10 years ago.
> LPT CEO went to Japan to beg suppliers.
> not only bottleneck on supply, they ARE now telling us that they are changing the 18A (consumer) lines to Intel3 datacenter/cpu production, which takes 6 months (if that) to do. (Yes they are telling us now when they should have done a year ago)
> CFO said fy2027 FCF will negative out loud (seriously)
Here's what takes the cake, they didn't want to pay in full for substrate, like the most important thing in making a chip. Like your whole fucking company makes chip. It's like a sandwich place running out of bread. Then they waste a bunch time making a deal with Quantum startup (btw LPT invested in series B) - more distraction, no revenue, more debts.
I held mainly to hear about 14A deal. The 14A deal was promised to be H2 2026 - nothing. LPT said they're talking to a strategic partners (yeah that's the same talk $ASTS says). If they had a deal, they say we have a deal worth X billion, but we can't announce who it is. Meanwhile, Elon is shopping with $TSMC.
So to summarize, Intel missed a once in a lifetime opportunity to sell as many server chips to datacenter as possible but they were totally out of positioned. This impacted the guidance from $17B estimated to 15-16B lasting to H2 2026. I didn't mention about the PC segment because that's out of their control. Jensen planned years ahead for the AI boom, that's how their revenue has grown Q/Q Y/Y on massive scale.
₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い retweeted
Buffett: A CEO calls and says he has a great deal for you and all you wanted was a 6% discount to last trade?
Abel: It was a chance to invest in a company you said we missed
Munger: The miss was in 2003
Abel: The bankers all said we got it cheap to where would could buy it
Buffett: Wait, your tipping point was banker praise?
Abel: They congratulated me on the deal
Munger: Did you get a deal toy?
Buffett: What else are we doing because “the bankers” said so
Abel: I think you are both over reacting. Its one trade
Buffett: You just pissed away 20% of our profits from Japanese trading houses
Munger: Maybe he doesn’t like sushi
Abel: David Sokol said he loved our trade and owns in his PA
This is 180-degrees wrong.
The correct Cramer heuristic isn't that he's always wrong; it's that he's a weather vane who is usually merely indicating the current or very recent price direction (sentiment).
A Cramer anti-momentum call is a rare and therefore notable event.
₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い retweeted
CEO: "we think we can grow 40% over the next 2 years based on the business we have contracted."
Fintwit: OMG SO BEARISH WHY WOULD YOU GIVE GUIDANCE
CEO: "we don't give long-term guidance and won't comment on that."
Fintwit: OMG SO BEARISH WHY WOULDN'T YOU GIVE GUIDANCE
This is 100% consistent with the concise long- $GOOG thesis I bought on and posted yesterday.
Reddit call was absolutely fascinating. Everyone should listen to it as a bellwether for where the internet is going
- AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience
- AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search
- AI Mose incentivizes dialog, Google wants to keep you engaged to serve more ads at each turn
- Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company
- As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet
- This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations
- This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse
We are entering the end game - a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い retweeted
Reddit call was absolutely fascinating. Everyone should listen to it as a bellwether for where the internet is going
- AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience
- AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search
- AI Mose incentivizes dialog, Google wants to keep you engaged to serve more ads at each turn
- Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company
- As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet
- This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations
- This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse
We are entering the end game - a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
Now renamed "scandalium"
UPDATE: Remember when Bloom claimed its supply chain is “not dependent on China” after Hunterbrook’s reporting?
New trade records show $BE seems to have quietly restarted a Chinese supply route for scandium-containing fuel cell parts.
I can do that, even though I've never seen a full episode.
Big Bang Theory is a singular achievement. 12 successful seasons, 279 episodes of comedy sitcom, all built on variants of, at a generalized level, one joke: People who are good at physics are bad at other people.
Happiness is covering a <1% short position at a 50% profit from your entry price on a day that most of your 90%-long positions are also getting crushed. For emotional purposes, the size difference somehow matters far less than it should.
On the other side: My long-oil position is at a new high. I'm not really happy about that one, merely grimly thankful that I have it.
Mrs. BeenThereCap & I watched all the episodes in early reruns and thought they were great.
Decades later, the few times I browsed a rerun, I was repeatedly struck by how much, in many ways, they suck. The plot idea for each episode covered a lot of sins.
$CCJ earnings call just now:
Q: Westinghouse is going to generate a lot of cash in the next few years. I still can't discern what your strategy is for the use of this cash. Can you explain?
A: [Five paragraphs of obfuscation. He said "disciplined" a lot. I learned nothing.]
I hate $CCJ earnings calls so much.
From the NYT.
Most consumers have almost no awareness of counterparty risk, even the concept of it. And it's not their fault; it almost never comes up for most of them.
I learned very early when I had tickets and frequent flyer miles on an airline that shut down on short notice.
Well, this sucks.
Nasdaq 100 futures tonight: -2.2%
The only 5 higher daily declines in 2026::
June 5 -4.8%
June 23 -3.3%
Oct 22 -2.9%
Oct 16 -2.5%
March 26 -2.4%
As I just sat on a park bench in the last warm late-afternoon sun I'll get before daylight savings time ends, my mind wandered into putting itself in the position of Michael Burry, and it concluded:
You go, Michael.
He is playing the cards he's been dealt, the highest value one of which is fame. You do not attract and keep paying subscribers worth 8 or 9 figures per year by voicing nuance and mental flexibility. You do it by crafting a story your audience desperately wants to hear and telling it strongly, with confidence, consistency, and certainty -- even when your certainty is 2 + 2 = 5 wrong to a better-informed listener.
Michael Burry is now the Adam Aron ($AMC CEO) of the stock-picking world. I have been posting this same genuine half-compliment of Adam for years. Michael is on pace to pull down multiples of Adam's rake from his own, facially-different card table.