@BiswasEnergy

Gas and Power Markets⚡️

 Singapore
Joined June 2026
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  • Following117
  • Followers22
2Media
The US is heading into a warm winter. A strong El Niño usually means that. Warm weather means people use less power, and power prices usually fall. Here’s what that does to power, coal and gas 🧵
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There’s one thing weather can’t cut: data centers. The EIA expects business power demand, which includes data centers, to grow 2.8% in 2027. A warm winter helps, but this growth keeps pushing the other way.
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My view: a warm winter pushes US power prices below the EIA’s $49. I’m wrong if a big cold snap hits like last winter’s. El Niño shifts the odds, it doesn’t guarantee. Follow @BiswasEnergy #Power #DataCenter #USA #CommodityTrading #ElNiño
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Hriditya | Gas & Power retweeted
Javier Blas
@JavierBlasOct 19
The Trump administration is allowing sanctioned oil tankers to undergo a process to start legitimately shipping crude oil, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. He says that “dozens” and perhaps even “hundreds” of tankers could benefit (the later seems an exaggeration).
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Hriditya | Gas & Power retweeted
Kpler
@KplerOct 19
🚨 Is the global diesel market heading for a turning point? The near-term outlook for gasoil is weakening as refinery maintenance comes to an end, Russian exports partially recover and demand remains under pressure. However, upside risks persist, with renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries adding uncertainty to the US-Russia diesel deal. 🎥 Watch our latest video to explore what’s driving the diesel market and what could happen next. Learn more: okt.to/jmQp28
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EU storage was 73.5% on Oct 9, about 17 points below the five-year average. Friday close: JKM $29.0, TTF ~$28.8. Asia’s premium is about zero. Europe has to win cargoes this winter, which keeps TTF bid. Asian cold snaps pull the other way.
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My view: Europe’s storage gap keeps the spread near zero through winter. I’m wrong if JKM minus TTF moves back above +$2 for two weeks running. I’ll update the chart weekly. Follow @BiswasEnergy
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Asia has paid more than Europe for LNG almost every week since March. By early October that premium was close to zero, and in the week to Oct 9 Europe edged ahead. That spread decides where flexible cargoes go, and it matters this winter. 🧵
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Paper vs physical. On paper you can trade the gap directly: long JKM, short TTF, and close it whenever you like. A physical cargo commits a ship to a voyage of weeks, and the gap can flip before it arrives. So it needs a wider gap to be worth the risk.
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The gap: about +$2 to +3 in spring, +$1.5 or so over summer, $1.5 or less by autumn. Only two negative weeks, 20 March (-$1.4) and 9 Oct (-$0.5, inside rounding). Europe is now bidding almost level with Asia.
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JKM went from about $18 in spring to $28.5 in mid-September, its highest in about two and a half years. TTF hit $27.8 on Sep 14, its highest since Dec 2022. In January, forecasters had Asian spot averaging $9.50 to $9.90. That forecast didn’t survive the year.
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The spread is JKM (Asian spot LNG) minus TTF (European gas). A flexible cargo is like a delivery truck with no fixed address: it goes wherever the price gap beats the extra shipping cost to Asia. Wide gap, it heads east. Narrow gap, it stays in Europe.
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Hriditya | Gas & Power retweeted
Amelia Brooks
@Amelia_With_AiSep 28
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