Your wingman down The #Bitcoin Rabbit Hole every day since 2013 🚀
Joined March 2011
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The same signal that called the top within a week says that TODAY is the bottom
Just take the averages of past cycles and carry them forward: For the coming cycle, aka Boom5, we get:
Top to bottom:
- 2013: 410 days
- 2017: 363 days
- 2021: 376 days
- 2025: ~383 days (Oct 24th 2026)
Bottom to new high:
- 2013: 771 days
- 2017: 732 days
- 2021: 716 days
- 2025: ~740 days (Nov 2nd 2028)
New high to top:
- 2013: 297 days
- 2017: 329 days
- 2021: 334 days
- 2025: ~320 days (Sept 18th 2029)
Switched back to iPhone after 13 years on Android. It wouldn’t let me use the @coinbase app I had installed. Guess a few things have changed since then @brian_armstrong @FEhrsam?
2023 vs 2026 bitcoin:native Golden Cross
- 388 days in '23 vs looking like 296 days in '26
- Both occurred after a long sideways pattern followed by a violent breakout
- '23 retested the 200 day 31 days later 👀
- 200 day also happened to be the previous cycle's high 👀
I watched this long before bitcoin existed — which is why the white paper resonated the moment I read it (not sure what was "revised" in this edition) youtu.be/2nBPN-MKefA
The 200 day weekly moving average marked the bottom of 2 of the last 3 cycles (ftx fkd the 3rd). We're sitting on it now.
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A year of digging 😂
Bitcoin’s founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, has remained hidden for 17 years. A trail of clues — and a year of digging by our reporter, John Carreyrou — led us to a 55-year-old computer scientist in El Salvador named Adam Back. nyti.ms/4bXWC3V
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Still think “the cycle” is dead?
From the ~$20k top in 2017 to the ~$69k top in 2021 took 1424 days.
From the 2021 top to our latest ~$126k top? 1426 days!
Predicting the date of the bottom is also shockingly simple 👇
Opus 4.6 is happy with BTC's recovery in relation to COVID:
> The proportional consistency (~0.5x) across data points is notable — it's not random. But the wick ratio being higher (68% vs 53%) is the most interesting signal. It suggests this drop, while violent, is seeing relatively stronger demand on the lows compared to COVID.
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We've been talking about nation state game theory mechanics since #bitcoin's inception.
The U.S. made the first move by publicly embracing crypto and building its Stablecoin economy on it — the future of the dollar.
So what will other players of this game do?
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