Abhishek Parihar

10/ 10 (Important) If you’re bullish — make the case. • How do volumes hold post-hike? • How fast can FMCG offset profit loss? • Where’s the technical base? Markets reward numbers, not narratives. #Investing #MarketDebate

9/10 (Time & Verdict) This doesn’t mean ITC is bad. It means timing matters. ⏳ Upside likely capped for 6–9 months ⚠️Let volumes stabilize ⚠️Let price hikes digest This is avoid, not average territory. #RiskManagement #CapitalPreservation

8/10 (Technical Confirmation) Charts are confirming fundamentals. Renko breakdowns: • ₹410 ❌ • ₹380 ❌ No base. No absorption. That’s classic falling knife structure. #TechnicalAnalysis #Renko

5/10 (The Profit Concentration Risk) Here’s the part most dip buyers ignore: Cigarettes = ~78% of ITC’s profits (not revenues — profits) Even a single-digit volume decline causes a disproportionate EPS hit. #Earnings #BusinessModel #EquityResearch

4/10 (Illicit Trade Reality) What fills the gap? • Cheaper counterfeits • Smuggled packs via Nepal & Bhutan routes • Unreported volumes outside the tax net This has played out every single time taxes jumped sharply. #IllicitTrade #IndiaEconomy

3/10 (Why Price Hike Won’t Pass Easily) A 35–40% hike cannot be taken in one go. History is clear: • Sharp hikes = volume destruction • Consumers down-trade • Or exit legal channels entirely (Results In Loss to Government Taxes) #PricingPower #ConsumerBehavior

2/10 Policy Trigger From Feb 1, cigarettes face: • 40% GST • NCCD (specific excise) Net impact: ITC needs a ~35–40% price hike just to protect margins. ITC Cigarettes (Base Variants | Indicative MRPs) (per pack) - Gold Flake (10) Old: ₹170 → New (post-tax): ₹240 - Gold Flake Kings (20) Old: ₹340 → New (post-tax): ₹476 - Wills Navy Cut / Wills Classic (10) Old: ₹100 → New (post-tax): ₹140 - Classic Mild / Balanced (20) Old: ₹340 → New (post-tax): ₹476 That’s not a small tweak — it’s a shock. #TobaccoTax #UnionBudget #Markets

1/10 Stuck in ITC or planning to buy the dip? Read this carefully. ITC isn’t falling on fear or sentiment. It’s falling on policy + math + structure. Here’s the full breakdown 👇🧵 #ITC #IndianMarkets #StockMarketIndia

Options don’t destroy accounts. Ego does. Oversizing after wins. Refusing to cut exposure. Believing you’ve figured it out. Position sizing is boring. That’s why it works.

💡 Why do so many people fail at investing? 🤔 It often comes down to one key mistake: They focus more on learning than doing! In this thread, I'll break down how to flip that script!👇

NIFTY at 26,292 BANK NIFTY at 60,100 NIFTY PCR at an extreme 1.78 Everyone’s asking: “26500?” My question is different: Who is left to BUY here? When PCR hits extremes after the move, FIIs don’t need to sell aggressively. They just need patience. Highs don’t hurt traders. Crowded confidence does. Bullish or bull trap? Let’s hear real reasoning — not bias. #Nifty #Nifty50 #niftyoptions #optionbuying #OptionsTrading