Tangibleist.
Joined August 2024
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It’s happening. The US10Y is going vertical, even after additional Treasury buybacks were announced for tomorrow.
The market is interpreting the action from the Treasury as panic. The more the government intervenes, the worse it gets.
Nothing makes me happier than seeing people who have no real conviction in metals finally tap out near the bottom.
This sector isn’t for the weak. It will test your conviction.
People hunting to coattail “bubbles” always get burned. You either have conviction or you don’t.
Bubbles tend to originate coming out of a major multi year cycle low. Metals had a chance to transition into a true bubble phase but gold needed to recover quickly after the Jan. crash. The Feb. rally needed to recover the all-time highs and then breakout. That didn't happen.
I was willing to give it one more chance. The April rally needed to recover the all time highs. We rode that rally in miners and recovered most or all the losses from our leverage. But it topped way too soon and we exited close to the top. We have been on the sidelines ever since.
At this point I think we missed the chance for a final bubble phase. That means we will have to wait for the next multi year cycle low before metals produce the next setup to produce a final bubble. That 8 year cycle low isn't due until 29-30.
There's been too much technical damage done to metals at this point. It's going to take months or years to base before it can produce the next momentum phase. You should ignore the gold touts telling you that metals are about to rocket launch. Metals are in a cyclical bear market. Not a secular bear market mind you, but a cyclical one that may last several more years. Once the cyclical bear market is finished then we will see $10,000 gold and $300-$500 silver. But investors will need to be patient and let this cyclical bear run its course.
It's time to look for other opportunities.
WTI Crude is very close to another breakout.
Don’t buy into the pre-midterm narrative that the war is ending and oil is flowing. It’s all smoke and mirrors.
Paper oil can’t fill gas tanks.
I would believe this to be propaganda but my own local television news channel has been running pieces about being prepared with water and how to store water for emergencies. Unless Iran also controls our local news, this is either US propaganda or actually legit
White Metal Macro ✊🏼 retweeted
Even the most fervent silver bulls are capitulating because silver has dipped below a crucial support level.
Maybe it’s a max pain fake out. Maybe this capitulating will trigger a new leg of panic selling.
The reality is the downside is maybe 10% at today’s price. The upside is essentially 100-400%.
I’m still buying. The last I checked it’s still in a supply deficit that keeps getting worse.
Even the most fervent silver bulls are capitulating because silver has dipped below a crucial support level.
Maybe it’s a max pain fake out. Maybe this capitulating will trigger a new leg of panic selling.
The reality is the downside is maybe 10% at today’s price. The upside is essentially 100-400%.
I’m still buying. The last I checked it’s still in a supply deficit that keeps getting worse.
White Metal Macro ✊🏼 retweeted
People will wish they sold their kidney for these metals levels next year
White Metal Macro ✊🏼 retweeted
Gold fell nearly 34% in 2008. By textbook definitions, a bear market. By market structure, a correction within a secular bull market.
The real bear market came after the 2011 top, when monthly structure broke down.
Market structure matters. 👇
The WTI Crude chart is ominously beautiful.
It’s on the precipice of another big move.
It either break out very soon, or keeps edging through Nov.
Take your position with conviction and hold.
God speed.
Jaime West is the gift that keeps on giving lmao
"Why don't you ask Pete Hegseth, who is drinking whisky as he's running an illegal war?"
Viral Indiana Democrat candidate Jaime West tries to deflect from accusations of her own alleged drunkenness...
Watch more 👇
📺 youtu.be/rcg4BzNXQxU
@piersmorgan | @benfergusonshow
WTI Crude is getting close to the cup and handle breakout, which could see $140+ by the end of the year.
Rocket League is going to be a real Olympic Sport soon
🔥 BREAKING: Elon Musk just unveiled a new Tesla Roadster that can LITERALLY FLY using SpaceX thrusters, and has SO MUCH DOWNFORCE that you can drive UPSIDE DOWN
This will be the best handling car EVER PRODUCED by FAR. And keep in mind, this is a literal PRODCTION CAR that you can BUY.
Absolutely INSANE. James Bond-level stuff! Congrats @elonmusk!
Trump ending the Ukraine war instead of Iran war allows him to still talk tough on Iran to avoid a surrender looking weak, while pretending to be the ultimate peacemaker by ending Biden’s war. Markets will rally and paper oil prices will fall. The win he needs before midterms.
What is most likely to happen to the SP500 by 2028?
1. A continued inflationary grind upward to 10,000 in 2027-28
2. A sell-off and V-shape recovery to 10,000 by 2028
3. A longer correction in asset prices (2022-2024) that lasts the remainder of Trump’s term
4. A panic sell-off well below 6,500. Blood in the markets
