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Don't bet the break... (Cycling betting, Strategy, Game Theory)

Joined September 2020
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Matt White seems like a fun guy and knowledgeable, but it's at least a bit weird that the team manager who was initially so focused on anti-doping is hiring an admitted doper *who he also already fired for referring riders to a doping doctor*.
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This used to be every single tour. Such a 90s/00s route. I'm kind of fine with going TT heavy once every ~5 years. Give the Dumoulin's of the world a chance. I do think it's unbecoming of the director to mention specific riders by name, as having influenced the route.
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I can't with this guy, but the irony of him commenting on "sharing when you see a Tour de France contender training in Europe, even when that isn't publicly available information" is incredible.
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Running bit on here how Carapaz performs best for a new contract, and less well when he has security. And they've just given him 3 years... Eesh. Proof that this NSN team is an extension of the team that signed Froome and Fuglsang to those long deals.
My greatest strength is that I have the discipline and focus of a Grand Tour winning cyclist. My greatest weakness is that the cyclist in question is specifically "Richard Carapaz after he has a good Giro that he has used to negotiate his next contract".
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Replying to @JamesTalksSport
Yeah - he's been good in a lot of races and close a lot, and performed very well. Good stuff for Q36.5 But you can also see why Ineos balked at paying him like a top 5-10 rider in the world, and were happy enough to move off of him.
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Cam Wurf is 43 years old and was in the team last time Pidcock won a WT race. But at Q36 I think it’s fine that he isn’t winning WT races or competitive for GT wins. He is consistent and a good face for the team and making it a very solid outfit, always competitive. Etc.
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Two years on from the Pidcock drama, I think all 3 sides (Pidcock, Ineos, Q36) were right about their hypotheses and that it has worked out pretty well for all 3.
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Replying to @ilmaestro_99
Expensive for my bank account nitter.gq/BreakAlways/status/147…
It can never be said I'm not a Vanhoucke believer! That's four bets on him that didn't exactly come off. But I'm just not sure what races he could be targeting. Most short stage races have an ITT, or not a ton of climbing. What are 4-5 races you think he could target?
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Replying to @gietvangent
“How can you be happy getting a silver medal at the Olympics…”
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Replying to @belicosus
Definitely crossed my mind. Up there I think. It’s so valuable to win Worlds when you’re young. Every contract goes way up. And he also has backed it up ever since.
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Replying to @kgardner081
Yeah huge result but also probably minimum wage contract only off the back of it. Lafay and Foss were probably jumping to 7 figures off the back of theirs, plus huge bonuses
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Which men’s cyclist has had the most profitable single day of racing over the last 8+ years? (Probably on a % basis). Lafay and Foss for sure. Champoussin kind of up there. Who else?
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Worlds ITT Euro RR Amstel, San Sebastián, Quebec 3rd Liege, 4th Lombardia, 3rd Flanders (!) 2nd GC with 2 stage wins at TDF Plus won the first 4 races of his year in Spain It would’ve been unimaginable 10yrs ago that anyone could do that.
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I know he was riding two GTs a year, but… it’s certainly a curious set of absences from races he seems good at. Could he have been close to the Mollema/Fuglsang/Chaves template?
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Shorter grand tours, too. Focus on the main guys. Cannot have any of these embarrassing filler stages where pro team nobodies like Angel Madrazo win from a break. We must be efficient with our grand tours! They can’t just stretch on into languid summer afternoons.
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Similarly, I hate that there are races like Tour of Poland or Cro Race where new world champion Brandon McNulty has gotten to race as a leader. Hopefully we will clean up the calendar so he can focus his schedule exclusively on being a domestique for Pogačar 100% of the time.
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In 2024, we visited Bologna because we were so taken by the beauty of Giro Dell’emilia - but now that I know it threatens the profits of Ivan Glasenberg and that it’s not Pogačar vs Vingegaard every year, I think it should be taken off the calendar.
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This is a lot of what happened in cricket "What if we abandon our core audience and try to change the sport to appeal to people who don't like our sport"? Guess what - it doesn't attract new viewers, and it alienates your core audience! Excited for cycling winviz though... 🙄
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Replying to @Lolo225677
3-4 teams may appear as well. But I’m not sure why fewer races and less exposure would mean teams like Flanders-Baloise would survive?
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The loudest voices are two billionaire team owners saying that more money should go to team owners. nitter.gq/laflammerouge16/status…
The Collective Cycling Group, led by team owners including Ivan Glasenberg and Zdenek Bakala, has raised €25m to reshape the sport’s business model. 15 WorldTour teams reportedly support it, while UAE, Alpecin-Premier Tech and Jayco AlUla have rejected the project. The goal: more head-to-head racing, a revamped calendar and teams taking greater control of commercial rights. UCI is expected to respond next month. it.blastingnews.com/sport/20…
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