GOLD AND SILVER MINERS | Brutal Correction or the Destruction of the Bull Market? The Data Tell a Very Different Story. I have conducted a quantitative study of 203 gold and silver mining companies, analyzing their performance from February 29, 2024, which I consider the beginning of the current bull market, through October 23, 2026. The objective was to answer a particularly important question following the violent declines we have witnessed: How many companies have actually given back all the gains accumulated during the bull market, and how many are still holding on to substantial profits? To answer this question, I calculated three metrics for each company: Cumulative return: The percentage change in price since the beginning of the bull market. Maximum drawdown: The largest decline from a previous peak during the period analyzed. Current drawdown: The percentage decline from the highest price recorded during the period to the most recent closing price. The results are extraordinarily revealing. 1. THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF MINERS ARE STILL SITTING ON SUBSTANTIAL GAINS Of the 203 companies analyzed: 186 companies (91.6%) still show positive returns. Only 17 companies (8.4%) are trading below their starting levels. The median cumulative return stands at an impressive +209.67%. Let's consider that last figure for a moment. It means that the company at the midpoint of the distribution has seen its share price increase approximately 3.1-fold since February 2024, despite the magnitude of the subsequent correction. 2. THE CORRECTION HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY VIOLENT The drawdown figures reveal another equally important reality: Median maximum drawdown: −50.22%. Median current drawdown: −38.82%. In other words, the typical company in the sample has experienced a decline of more than 50% from a previous peak at some point during the period and is currently trading almost 39% below its highest level over that period. This helps explain why investor sentiment has become so negative. However, there is a fundamental difference between losing 40% from the highs after a stock has multiplied several times in value and losing 40% relative to where it stood at the beginning of the bull market. These are not equivalent situations. A company can experience a devastating correction from its recent highs and still retain extraordinary cumulative gains. 3. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES ARE ENORMOUS Some miners have maintained spectacular returns since February 2024: Benz Mining: +2,774% Omai Gold Mines: +1,911% Montage Gold: +1,785% At the opposite end of the spectrum, we find companies that have not only surrendered all their previous gains but are now trading substantially below their initial levels. These 17 companies deserve individual analysis to determine whether their declines reflect company-specific problems, deteriorating fundamentals, financing requirements, shareholder dilution, or an excessive market reaction. But we must avoid jumping to conclusions: a company that has fallen sharply is not necessarily an attractive investment opportunity. Price action must be analyzed alongside fundamentals, technical structure, and relative strength. 4. WHAT DO THESE RESULTS TELL US ABOUT THE BULL MARKET? This is, in my view, the most important conclusion. If we were witnessing a widespread destruction of the gains accumulated during this cycle, we would expect to find a much larger proportion of companies trading below their February 2024 levels. Yet we are seeing precisely the opposite. More than 91% of the companies analyzed remain in positive territory since the beginning of the bull market. The correction has been extremely deep, but it has not erased the enormous gains accumulated by most of the companies in the sample. This is consistent with my technical interpretation: we are going through a very severe correction, but one of a lower degree than the major structural bear markets of the past. Naturally, these figures do not guarantee that the lows are already in. Nor do they prove, on their own, that every company still has an intact individual uptrend. But they certainly put the true magnitude of what has happened into perspective. 5. MY CONCLUSION Long-term bull markets do not advance in a straight line. They can experience extraordinarily violent corrections that damage sentiment, trigger substantial losses from peak valuations, and lead many investors to question whether the bull market even exists anymore. And yet, when we broaden our perspective, we discover that a large portion of the gains accumulated throughout the cycle remains intact. That is precisely the contrast revealed by these 203 securities: a median cumulative return of +209.67% coexisting with a median current drawdown of −38.82%. That is why I believe it is essential to distinguish between a severe correction and the end of a bull market. They are two very different things. I've published my complete quantitative study of 203 gold and silver mining companies, including an interactive ranking showing the individual performance of every security. Despite the severity of the recent correction, 91.6% of the companies remain in positive territory since February 29, 2024, with a remarkable median cumulative return of +209.67%, even as the median current drawdown stands at −38.82%. These findings highlight a crucial distinction: a brutal correction does not necessarily mean the end of a bull market. Explore the full analysis and interactive ranking of all 203 securities at Structural Alpha Research: structuralalpharesearch.net/… Methodological note: This study is based on 203 companies with sufficient price history and available data. Returns represent changes in share prices, not total returns adjusted for dividends. The composition of the sample introduces potential selection and survivorship biases; the conclusions describe the companies analyzed and do not necessarily represent the entire sector. #Gold #Silver #GoldMiners #SilverMiners #GDX #GDXJ #MiningStocks #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis

Buy the Bottom or Wait for Confirmation? The Real Cost of Both Strategies One of the hardest decisions in a mining bull market is knowing when to buy a correction. Buy too early, and you may have to endure substantial additional losses. Wait for confirmation, and a significant part of the rebound may already be behind you. In our latest research at Structural Alpha Research, we examined nearly three years of weekly data across the JUNIOR and GDX–GDXJ mining universes. What did we find? • In one episode, the median junior miner suffered a further 22.86% decline after the initial oversold signal. • In another, the median GDX–GDXJ stock had already rebounded 25.22% from the retrospectively identified breadth low before confirmation arrived. • Confirmation did not necessarily mean the opportunity was over. Significant gains were still possible afterward. • Neither approach proved consistently superior. Buying early involves greater timing uncertainty; waiting may mean accepting a higher entry price. The central conclusion: The most attractive prices often appear when uncertainty is greatest. By the time the market offers convincing confirmation, much of the initial recovery may already have occurred. There is no perfect entry. Every investor must decide which risk they are more willing to accept. Read the full study: structuralalpharesearch.net/… #Gold #Silver #GoldMiners #GDX #GDXJ #Investing

Rick Rule says mining speculators need to be willing to endure nasty 50% + corrections.

I tend to agree. Extreme readings like these often appear around important market bottoms, particularly during corrections within a long-term bull market. Of course, they don't guarantee that the bottom is already in. There could still be some additional downside, but I believe we're much closer to the end of this correction than to the beginning. The widespread pessimism is another encouraging sign, in my view.

Brian, with my mining equity losses, I’m losing my nerve to continue to hold on. Any advice would be appreciated.

Foreclosure counts are one signal, but local sales data tells the rest of the story. An appraiser looks at how many distressed sales are in a neighborhood's closed comps and how quickly normal sales are selling. A rising count in a county doesn't automatically change every street.

There are more homes for sale, fewer buyers willing or able to purchase them, and mortgage rates are back above 7%. Meanwhile, researchers visiting neighborhoods firsthand are questioning how much housing supply is visible in the official numbers.